Sunday, November 14, 2010

New York Knicks - Early Season Returns

Photo source: Lordcolus
The Knicks made as many changes to their roster as any team in the NBA.  How have all the moves helped New York?  If you look at the record the answer is - incrementally.  The Knicks were 1-8 in the first nine games of 2009 and have started the 2010/11 season 3-6.

They have a really good win at Chicago but have now lost four in a row.  Let's take a look at the team stats and some advanced individual stats to see what they tell us.

Before that though, I predicted the Knicks would have a 40-42 record.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 103.8 (23rd in the NBA) [107.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 106.8 (17th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -3.0 [-4.0 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.4 (11th) [102.1 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 105.3 (24th) [105.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 98.7 (2nd) [94.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Raymond Felton
Offensive Rating:  114 (107 in 2009)
Defensive Rating:  109 (103)
PER:  18.7 (15.2)

Amare Stoudamire
Offensive Rating: 97 (117 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 16.8 (22.6)

Wilson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (113)
PER: 18.5 (13.7)

Danilo Gallinari
Offensive Rating: 117 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (112)
PER: 14.7 (14.8)

Toney Douglas
Offensive Rating: 107 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (113)
PER: 16.2 (14.9)

Landry Fields
Offensive Rating: 121 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 108
PER: 14.9

Ronny Turiaf
Offensive Rating: 136 (110 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 16.6 (12.6)

Timofey Mozgov
Offensive Rating: 76 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 5.9 (15.2)

Bill Walker
Offensive Rating: 91 (122 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 4.8 (14.6)

The Knicks are playing at a faster pace than last season but their offensive efficiency has gone down.  That is not a recipe for success.  However, they've improved their defensive efficiency by nearly five points per 100 possessions and have increased their efficiency margin to -3 from -4 in 2009/10.

Because of all the roster turnover we cannot quite compare apples to apples as far as individual contributions.  So let's start by taking a look at the new additions.  It is clear that Stoudamire is underperforming his massive contract.  His year over year drop in PER from 22.6 to 16.8 is frightening.  The most obvious culprit - his field-goal shooting percentage has fallen more than 100 points.

The other big offseason acquisition, Felton, has been an excellent contributor.  I ranked him as one of the top 10 point guards in the NBA after last season.  On a less defensively-focused team his Defensive Rating has risen but his Offensive Rating has matched it.  There was uncertainty about his ability to run the up tempo Knicks offense, but he is clearly excelling in the system.

Chandler has been a solid contributor off the bench.  He's raised his PER almost five points from last season and has the second highest PER on the team.  Douglas has authored a nice little jump in his PER as well and has been outstanding in a few games.

The Knicks have to hope that Gallinari has recovered from his early season wrist injury.  Cumulatively over the first nine games, he's been just a guy.  The average PER ranking is 15.0 and he's at 14.7.  The good news is that he's picked up his play over the last two games.  His 35% field-goal shooting percentage is really hurting him.

Fields is starting and his 14.9 PER portrays him as just a guy. But he does have an excellent margin in efficiency, with a +13.  Fellow rookie Mozgov has been pretty awful.

Turiaf is the only piece from the David Lee trade that has contributed in a meaningful way so far.  The hope is that Anthony Randolph, who is now playing, will get into playing shape quickly and start to reach his massive potential even more quickly. 

How would you assess the first nine games of the Knicks season?  What do you hope to see as the season progresses?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

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