Tuesday, August 10, 2010

New York Knicks - Better or Worse?

This post is the first of a series where I will be looking at the moves made by each NBA team during the offseason and comparing their current roster to their 2009 roster and using the cumulative rankings system I developed to judge whether the team is better or worse.

Photo source: jhartney
The New York Knicks will be the first team I will be evaluating.  The Knicks went into the offseason with a lot of cap room and high hopes.  They had been playing all of their cards the last couple of seasons in a way that would enable them to make a big splash in the summer of 2010.  Of course, their main target was LeBron James.  They didn't get LeBron, but they certainly made some additions that should help them improve.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Chris Duhon (#59 PG, Unranked), Sergio Rodriguez (#40 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Raymond Felton (#10 PG, Level 3), Toney Douglas (#30 SG, Level 6)

The signing of Felton was a huge upgrade for the Knicks at the point guard position.  The player that had the most minutes as the position last year, Duhon, was the 59th ranked point guard in the league.  Felton was an impressive 10th, putting him at the top of the third level.  Douglas is also an upgrade in the backup role and he can be expected to improve on his rookie season.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Tracy McGrady (#56 SG, Level 9), Toney Douglas (#30 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Wilson Chandler (#34 SF, Level 8), Kelenna Azubuike (injured)

While not a big upgrade, Chandler did outperform McGrady last year and should continue to develop. 

Small Forward
2009 - Wilson Chandler (#34 SF, Level 8)
2010 - Danilo Gallinari (#37 PF, Level 6)

While their overall rankings look close, Gallinari actually outperformed Chandler by a pretty good margin last year.  Gallinari's ratings are: PER - 14.89, Offense - 113, Defense - 112, WARP - 3.2, and Simple -1.3.  Chandler's ratings are: PER - 13.76, Offense - 106, Defense - 113, WARP - 0, and Simple 0.9.

Power Forward
2009 - Danilo Gallinari (#37 PF, Level 6), Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)

Stoudamire is a big upgrade at the power forward position, taking the spot up three levels for the Knicks.  Randolph is a nice little improvement in the backup role.

Center
2009 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3)
2010 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8)

Lee had an excellent season in New York last year.  Turiaf can't hope to match it but the Knicks will surely mix up their lineups and Turiaf will play nowhere near the amount of minutes that Lee did.

Overall
The Knicks finished 29-53 last year.  My rough estimate is that each level difference in a starter is worth a win while each level difference in a backup is worth half a win.  According to that formula the Knicks gain eight wins at point guard, one win at shooting guard, two wins at small forward and three and a half wins at power forward.  They lose five wins at center.  The net total is nine and a half.  I like this mix of players and think it's a good group for Mike D'Antoni's system so I'm going to bump that up to 11.

In the final verdict the Knicks are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 40-42.

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