NBA Rookies Progress Report - Picks 1-10

As 2010 comes to a close and NBA teams cross over their 30th game of the season, we've got at least a hint of what the rookie year is going to look like for those players picked in the 2010 NBA Draft.  This will be the first post of a series in which we'll analyze the statistics of NBA rookies.

Photo source: bikeride

If you've read the blog before you know that I like to focus on advanced statistics when evaluating players.  Here are the ones I'll specifically reference:

• John Hollinger of ESPN's PER, or Player Efficiency Rating.  In short, a player's PER is a rating of their per minute productivity.  The average PER in the NBA is always 15.0.
• The Simple Rating of 82games.com.  This rating factors in a player's PER, the PER of the player they are guarding, the player's plus-minus rating when they are in the game and the plus-minus rating of their team when they are not in the game.
• The Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on Basketball-Reference.com.  The Offensive Rating is how many points the player scores per 100 possessions and the Defensive Rating is how many points the player allows per 100 possessions.

1.  John Wall - Washington Wizards
Games - 16
PER - 16.6
Simple - -0.4
Offensive Rating - 101
Defensive Rating - 108

A knee injury has limited Wall to playing in just 16 of the Wizards' first 28 games.  He has a respectable PER at 16.6, best among all rookies not named Blake Griffin.  He's struggling to find his shot (39.9% field goal percentage), especially from three-point range (32.6%).  To the positive, he's averaging 15.5 points, 8.3 assists and 2.1 steals per 36 minutes.  But as you might expect from a lightning fast guard who's finding his way in the NBA, he's also averaging 3.5 turnovers per 36 minutes. 

2.  Evan Turner - Philadelphia 76ers
Games - 28
PER - 8.0
Simple - -6.3
Offensive Rating - 89
Defensive Rating - 105

Turner has not been the instant contributor that he was expected to be when the Sixers took him with the second pick in the draft.  You can see by his stats above that he's finding it hard to be productive on the next level.  At 39.0%, he's shooting even worse than Wall.  He is averaging 6.5 rebounds per 36 minutes, which is good for a wing.

3.  Derrick Favors - New Jersey Nets
Games - 29
PER - 14.1
Simple - +0.5
Offensive Rating - 112
Defensive Rating - 106

He's continually named as the key piece to a potential Nets' acquisition of Carmelo Anthony, and for good reason.  Despite putting up a slightly below average 14.1 PER, Favors is in positive territory on the Simple Rating and on his Offensive to Defensive differential.  He's the only rookie on this list with those credentials.  He's shooting 55.6% and has the best offensive rebounding rate of all qualifying rookies, including Blake Griffin.  The only challenge - he's averaging 6.2 personal fouls per 36 minutes.

4.  Wesley Johnson - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 31
PER - 9.9
Simple - -0.3
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 114

The rookie from Syracuse has logged a lot of minutes for the Timberwolves but has not yet found the magic he had in college.  He has respectable shooting numbers - 45.3% from the field and 37.3% from behind the arc.  But as you can see from his statistics above, he is not making a big impact on the game.

5.  DeMarcus Cousins - Sacramento Kings
Games - 27
PER - 12.2
Simple - -9.8
Offensive Rating - 91
Defensive Rating - 106

Already proving to be a challenge off the court, Cousins has also shown that he's got a lot of work to do on the court.  To the positive, he does lead the Kings with a scoring average of 16.6 per 36 minutes.  He's also pulling in 10.7 rebounds per 36 minutes.  On the negative side, he's shooting just 41.3% and averaging 3.7 turnovers per 36 minutes.

6.  Ekpe Udoh - Golden State Warriors

Udoh has just started to play after breaking his wrist over the summer.

7.  Greg Monroe - Detroit Pistons
Games - 28
PER - 12.0
Simple - -3.8
Offensive Rating - 101
Defensive Rating - 108

Monroe has been more effective since starting to play consistent minutes in December.  At 44.4%, he's struggling with his shot but is averaging a decent 9.3 rebounds per 36 minutes.  I expected the passing skills he showed in college to translate to the NBA but they have not yet.

8.  Al-Farouq Aminu - Los Angeles Clippers
Games - 30
PER - 11.4
Simple - -3.0
Offensive Rating - 95
Defensive Rating - 107

Having shown flashes of excellence, especially when he was playing big minutes in November, Aminu's NBA career is off to a good start.  He's had some of the same offensive efficiency and defensive issues as the other rookies - he's averaging 3.4 turnovers per 36 minutes and shooting just 43.4% from the floor.  But he's also shooting 46.7% from three-point range and leading the Clippers with 1.6 steals per 36 minutes.

9.  Gordon Hayward - Utah Jazz
Games - 24
PER - 5.0
Simple - -23.7
Offensive Rating - 89
Defensive Rating - 110

Hayward's numbers are ridiculously bad, especially his -23.7 Simple Rating.  His shooting was supposed to be his strong suit but he's knocking down only 40.4% of his shots.

10.  Paul George - Indiana Pacers
Games - 8
PER - 8.6
Simple - -11.4
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 104

Clearly the Pacers expected George to contribute early - he played 20 minutes or more in each of their first three games.  His minutes decreased in each of the first six games.  Since then he's only played in two additional games.  He has shot a dreadful 34.1% and struggled to provide any sort of boost when he was playing.

Transitioning to the NBA is not a simple task.  As this look at the top 10 picks of the 2010 NBA draft shows, even the most highly-regarded talent can struggle in the most competitive of courts.  So far, Wall and Favors stand out above the others with Aminu and Cousins behind them.  In the next post I'll highlight picks 11-20.