What's been the key to the Spurs hot start? Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.
But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.
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Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)
Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)
Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)
Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)
George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)
DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)
Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)
Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3
Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)
Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9
The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense. Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA. Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA. One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting. They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10. On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1. That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.
After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms. He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career. Maybe it was Eva.
Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10. He's following that up with an even better season. Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10. He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.
Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs. At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career. A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.
What a difference a year makes for Jefferson. After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him. He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes. He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.
The career arc of George Hill continues to rise. He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010. He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.
Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit. His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season. On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.
The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench. The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly. He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting. Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie. He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range. Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes. Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.
It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now. But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket. Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score. The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense. That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.
What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start? Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.
Man, people can sure be selfish with their comments. This was a decent analysis of the surprise success of my second-favorite team. At least, surprising in degree...it's never a surprise when the Spurs win, they get players who buy into the system and it's a good system. As for the rest of the season, it probably all depends on health. If they say mainly healthy, the Spurs should win 60 and contend for the #1 or 2 seed. And at this point, it looks like only injuries can prevent that.
ReplyDeleteOh, and my favorite team? The Jazz. As you can tell, I like sound basketball more than crossovers and slam dunks.
Thanks for the comment trollificus. You very well may be right, the way the Spurs are playing the only thing that can derail them is injuries. I can understand your appreciation for solid hoops execution - I just posted my analysis of the Jazz.
ReplyDelete