San Antonio Spurs - Better or Worse

Photo source: neth_ra

For the fourth year in a row the Spurs win total dropped.  But probably more alarming to San Antonio fans was the way the season ended - getting swept by the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals.  The Spurs were built to dispose of teams like the Suns in the playoffs, but it didn't happen in the spring of 2010.  San Antonio did not pursue massive change during the summer.  They did get the commitment from Brazilian center Tiago Splitter for 2010-11 and they drafted James Anderson who was known for excellent outside shooting at Oklahoma State.  Are the Spurs positioned for a bigger fall this season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)

Could it be that Parker is on the downside of his career at only 28?  Have injuries and so many playoff games taken a heavy toll on his body?  Last season, his scoring average was the lowest it has been in six years and his field-goal shooting percentage dropped to a level it hasn't been at in five years.  Luckily for the Spurs, second-year man Hill was there to pick up some of the slack.  I expect Parker to lose another step this season with Hill's development making up for it.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Keith Bogans (#61 SG, Level 10), Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1)
2010 - Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1), James Anderson (Rookie)

Ginobili was spectacular last season, ranking as the most productive shooting guard in the NBA.  At 33 the only direction for him to go is down.  Anderson is the best bet to provide shooting off the bench.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)

He took a lot of heat and the move was called a failure, but in reality Jefferson still had a decent season.  Bonner is a long distance threat who can work in at both forward positions.  I think San Antonio will get a little bump up from Jefferson this season.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)

McDyess was not very productive as the most frequent starter at the four.  Blair shocked NBA observers with his effectiveness in his rookie tilt.  He shot a robust 55.6% from the field and averaged 6.4 rebounds per game in just over 18 minutes.  I think he'll continue to improve in 2010-11.  Net wins - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1)
2010 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1), Tiago Splitter (Rookie)

Another top level season was turned in by Duncan although it probably went under the radar even more than usual.  His PER was actually better than Dwight Howard's.  Splitter is the big unknown.  The Spanish League MVP is expected to be a big contributor to the Spurs in 2010-11.  The hope is that he will free Duncan up to play the four and keep McDyess off the floor for the majority of the game.  I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and San Antonio a nice little bump up at the five.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
I wouldn't suggest betting against the Spurs but I have a hard time seeing them making a big jump back up in the standings.  Their age started to show last season and they were not able to integrate Jefferson into the team in a meaningful way.  To climb back up into the upper echelon of the Western Conference they'll need Parker to be healthy and better, Jefferson to be closer to the player they thought they were getting last offseason and Splitter to be an impact post player.

San Antonio played to a 50-32 record last season.  As noted above, I have them picking up two wins at center, one at small forward and a half at power forward while staying even at point guard and losing one and a half at shooting guard.

In the final verdict the Spurs are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they'll finish the 2010-11 season at 52-30.

Does that record sound about right to you?  If you think I'm off let me know why in the comment section below.