Golden State Warriors - Early Season Returns

As I look at the NBA standings right now I've got to say that Golden State is one of the biggest surprises to me.  After all, I picked the Warriors to finish the season 26-56.  At 7-4 they are more than a quarter of the way toward that victory total just 11 games into the season.  My reasoning for that prediction was that I thought that the addition of David Lee would only add to their freewheeling, no defense culture.  But surprisingly, at least in regards to defense, that has not been the case.  Let's take a look at the numbers.

Photo source: Christian

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 104.9 (18th in the NBA) [108.1 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 106.3 (9th) [111.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.4 [-3.6 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.4 (13th) [108.8 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 102.7 (17th) [112.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.6 (5th) [100.4 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Monta Ellis
Offensive Rating: 114 (99 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (112)
PER: 22.5 (16.7)

Dorell Wright
Offensive Rating: 109 (114)
Defensive Rating: 108 (104)
PER: 13.3 (14.5)

Stephen Curry
Offensive Rating: 108 (107)
Defensive Rating: 105 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.3)

Andris Biedrins
Offensive Rating: 105 (113)
Defensive Rating: 103 (107)
PER: 12.7 (13.0)

David Lee
Offensive Rating: 104 (116)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 16.4 (22.2)

Reggie Williams
Offensive Rating: 102 (116)
Defensive Rating: 111 (114)
PER: 10.1 (16.0)

Rodney Carney
Offensive Rating: 104 (109)
Defensive Rating: 109 (111)
PER: 11.2 (12.7)

Vladimir Radmanovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (92)
Defensive Rating: 107 (111)
PER: 8.0 (7.9)

Brandan Wright
Offensive Rating: 106 (118)
Defensive Rating: 108 (112)
PER: 13.8 (18.7)

Dan Gadzuric
Offensive Rating: 100 (96)
Defensive Rating: 107 (100)
PER: 12.9 (10.5)

The Warriors have improved dramatically on defense in the first 11 games of 2010.  They've improved their Defensive Efficiency rating from 29th in the NBA last season to 9th in the NBA this season.  In raw numbers they are allowing 5.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last year.  However, their Offensive Efficiency has also dropped, by 3.2 points.  Most importantly though, their differential has improved from -3.6 in 2009/10 to -1.4 this season.

The key reason for Golden State's excellent performance is the improved play of Ellis.  He's made a significant jump in PER from 16.7 to 22.5.  He's improved his Offensive Rating dramatically from 99 to 114 and his Defensive Rating impressively from 112 to 106.  His field-goal percentage is up nicely and he's gunning it less, taking two and a half fewer shots per game than he did last season.

Curry's play has moved in the right direction as well.  He's improved his efficiency differential from -4 to +3.  His PER has also jumped 3.4 points.  That's particularly impressive considering that he's been battling ankle injuries.

Expected to be a big contributor, Lee's productivity has dropped since he joined the Warriors.  His PER is down almost six points, his field-goal percentage is down 80 points, his free-throw percentage is down 85 points and he's averaging half a turnover more per game.  Adapting to new teammates and a new playing style could be blamed for Lee's decreased effectiveness.  Golden State needs him to return from his infected elbow quickly if they are going to continue to perform at a high level.

The other big offseason addition, Dorell Wright, seems to be struggling to be as productive as he's been in the past now that he's playing nearly twice as many minutes.

Beyond that, the rest of the players in Golden State's rotation have put up decreased PERs this season (with the exception of Gadzuric) but on the good side, they've all also improved their Defensive Efficiency (again with the exception of Gadzuric).  To me, that speaks to the fact that their improvement on defense is the major factor in their stellar record to begin the season.

What would you say the keys are to the Warriors quick start?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Golden State Warriors - Better or Worse

What a mess.  Those three words summarize Golden State's previous season.  Team chemistry was nonexistent.  Most of the players seemed to be completely in it for themselves.  Don Nelson continued to make bizarre decisions about the playing rotation.  The number of wins decreased again, even after a huge drop off in the 2008-09 season.  On the bright side, Stephen Curry had a solid rookie year.  After the season ended the Warriors made a very curious draft pick, were bought and sold, traded their second leading scorer for a bag of donuts, made a deal to pick up a high profile but maybe low impact free agent and fired their coach.  How will all of these changes affect their record in 2010-11?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: permanently scatterbrained

Point Guard
2009 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), Charlie Bell (#67 SG, Below Level)

Curry was all the Warriors hoped he could be as his game grew quickly during his rookie tilt.  He should develop more in 2010-11.  The problem for Golden State comes at the backup position.  C.J. Watson put in a respectable season off the bench last year.  It looks like there will be a noticeable drop off this season as Bell is likely to be a part of a three guard rotation with Curry and Monta Ellis.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7), Anthony Morrow (#27 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7)

Efficiency, on offense and defense, was the factor that most hurt the ranking of Ellis amongst other shooting guards.  I don't believe that will change this season.  Again, the Warriors will be hurt by a weakened bench.  Morrow was an effective contributor in 2009-10.  Net Losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Corey Maggette (#14 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)

I think Wright was one of the best under the radar signings of the free agency period.  He is very efficient offensively and also solid on defense.  Williams was quite a find out of the D-League last year.  His PER ranked 13th among small forwards.  I like further development for Wright and Williams but I think it will be hard for them to match Maggette's production from 2009-10.  Net Losses - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)
2010 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3), Brandan Wright (Missed last year with injury)

Don Nelson used an eclectic mix of players at the four last year, some were small and some were big.  There could be more of the same this season with Lee playing minutes at the five.  Lee was spectacular on offense last year, ranking fourth among centers in PER.  There's no way to know what to expect from Wright who shows a lot of promise but missed the 2009-10 season with an injury.  I like Lee to bring more production at this position.  Net wins - 3.

Center
2009 - Anthony Tolliver (#39 C, Level 8), Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8)
2010 - Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8), Louis Amundson (#28 C, Level 6)

Injuries derailed Biedrins' development in 2009-10 after three straight seasons of improving numbers.  Amundson is a good energy guy off the bench but it looks like he'll now miss the first one to three months of the season after breaking his finger.  Net wins - 1.

Overall
The addition of Lee and Dorell Wright may revitalize this team, but it's more likely that they would have been better off in the long run by bottoming out and starting over with just Curry and a couple of other players.  In the best case scenario for Golden State Curry takes a leadership role, Ellis decides to play team ball, D Wright and Williams produce strongly, Lee brings everything he had in New York and B Wright and Biedrins come back as healthy contributors.  But I don't quite see that happening.

The Warriors finished last season at 26-56.  As I've documented above, I've got them adding three wins at power forward and one win at center while dropping two at shooting guard and one apiece at point guard and small forward.

In the final verdict the Warriors are the SAME.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 26-56 record this season.

What are your thoughts on my projection?  Too low?  Too high?  Let me know by posting a comment below.