(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: permanently scatterbrained |
Point Guard
2009 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), Charlie Bell (#67 SG, Below Level)
Curry was all the Warriors hoped he could be as his game grew quickly during his rookie tilt. He should develop more in 2010-11. The problem for Golden State comes at the backup position. C.J. Watson put in a respectable season off the bench last year. It looks like there will be a noticeable drop off this season as Bell is likely to be a part of a three guard rotation with Curry and Monta Ellis. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7), Anthony Morrow (#27 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7)
Efficiency, on offense and defense, was the factor that most hurt the ranking of Ellis amongst other shooting guards. I don't believe that will change this season. Again, the Warriors will be hurt by a weakened bench. Morrow was an effective contributor in 2009-10. Net Losses - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Corey Maggette (#14 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
I think Wright was one of the best under the radar signings of the free agency period. He is very efficient offensively and also solid on defense. Williams was quite a find out of the D-League last year. His PER ranked 13th among small forwards. I like further development for Wright and Williams but I think it will be hard for them to match Maggette's production from 2009-10. Net Losses - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)
2010 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3), Brandan Wright (Missed last year with injury)
Don Nelson used an eclectic mix of players at the four last year, some were small and some were big. There could be more of the same this season with Lee playing minutes at the five. Lee was spectacular on offense last year, ranking fourth among centers in PER. There's no way to know what to expect from Wright who shows a lot of promise but missed the 2009-10 season with an injury. I like Lee to bring more production at this position. Net wins - 3.
Center
2009 - Anthony Tolliver (#39 C, Level 8), Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8)
2010 - Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8), Louis Amundson (#28 C, Level 6)
Injuries derailed Biedrins' development in 2009-10 after three straight seasons of improving numbers. Amundson is a good energy guy off the bench but it looks like he'll now miss the first one to three months of the season after breaking his finger. Net wins - 1.
Overall
The addition of Lee and Dorell Wright may revitalize this team, but it's more likely that they would have been better off in the long run by bottoming out and starting over with just Curry and a couple of other players. In the best case scenario for Golden State Curry takes a leadership role, Ellis decides to play team ball, D Wright and Williams produce strongly, Lee brings everything he had in New York and B Wright and Biedrins come back as healthy contributors. But I don't quite see that happening.
The Warriors finished last season at 26-56. As I've documented above, I've got them adding three wins at power forward and one win at center while dropping two at shooting guard and one apiece at point guard and small forward.
In the final verdict the Warriors are the SAME. As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 26-56 record this season.
What are your thoughts on my projection? Too low? Too high? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Heh, I see your three and raise it by 7 to give 10 wins at PF.
ReplyDeleteDorrell Wright is a plus over Maggz especially with the things that give possessions to the opponent: turnovers, missed shots, fouls, and opponent's effectives at SF. Maggz always helped other teams while he helped himself. Another +3 with extra credit for the salary dump.
-4 for depth issues.
35 Wins.
Wow, J. Glanton I see you must be a big David Lee fan. The only way I see him coming close to that number of wins added is if he can rebound at a high rate and play some defense. Otherwise I think he's more of what they had.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing that concerns me about Wright is that he has been very effective in smaller minutes, <20. I'm not sure he'll be able to be as efficient with more PT.
Very optimistic about the Warriors you are. Keith Smart may be the biggest wild card of all here.
Yeah, Lee had 15 Wins Produced last year but I discounted it for the Western Conf.
ReplyDeleteAnother note in the plus column for Lee is that he'll be playing his natural position of PF for GSW. He'll be less of a defensive liability against players his own size, although he'll be playing against some very good PFs in the West. I'm not sure how well GSW's guards can run the pick and roll, but they better be able to do it with Lee because he'll be ready, willing, and able to score off the roll.
ReplyDeleteJ. Glanton - with the injury to Amundson I'd be worried that Lee will get pulled into more minutes at center. I'm not sure about the guards ability to run the pick and roll either, although I would expect Curry to be adept at it.
ReplyDeleteYou put Corey Maggette at SF... he played mostly PF last season. It's really David Lee, Wright vs Corey Maggette, ????.
ReplyDeleteAnthony Morrow was really our starting 3 last season. Reggie Williams is depth at both 2 and 3, hopefully mostly 2. Curry will probably be better, but Watson is very good as a backup. I can agree that we took a step down there.
The Warriors also had one of the most injury plagued seasons in NBA history last season. For a lot of the season they had 6 or 7 suited players and at times played with only the five on the court and no one on the bench. This should be an indication that with a healthy team they will be a lot better. Do your research.
ReplyDelete@Reverend_Randy - thanks for your comment. For the most part I used the positions that John Hollinger of ESPN assigned to the players. With all the injuries the Warriors had I know they had to mix and match players at different positions.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment Anonymous. I am well aware of the injuries the Warriors suffered in 2009-10. I just don't like the mix of talent that they have. Do you really think that health will make them a lot better? What's your definition of a lot better?
ReplyDeleteWhen you miss both your starting and backup centers and pfs for the majority of the season I think its safe to say the team will be significantly better with them healthy... biedrins was nearly an allstar at the 5 pre-injury and lee one of the most efficient players last year by any statistical ranking system... safe to say that's an upgrade over a d league pick up and maggette at the 4. FAIL.
ReplyDeleteMiles thanks for the comment, but I have to disagree with a couple of your points. Biedrins was playing nowhere near All Star level before he was hurt. He was 42nd in my NBA Center rankings, which factor in five different types of statistical analysis. His highest ranking was in Offensive Rating - he finished 18th. His PER ranking was 40th among centers.
ReplyDeleteLee's statistics look very good, as long as you don't factor defense in too much. He finished 43rd among centers in Defensive Rating.
In all honesty, watching the preseason games did give a lot regarding the team. Not trying to disregard statistics, I do personally believe in watching the games to see the whole story. The man-on-man and overall team defense is significantly better than last year's team, but Lee is slow on rotations, a liability on weak-side help, and gives up easy position. But the rebounding and wing defense(D-Wright>>Maggette) is superior to the previous squad. Albeit it is only preseason, the first squad is SIGNIFICANTLY better looking with that traditional line-up with players in his respective natural position and a really good developing chemistry (on offense).
ReplyDeleteBut yes, that second unit is looking terrible on both ends of the court with no true leader on the court except for R Williams (at a glance). That second unit is THE BIGGEST liability on the team.
I don't like making predictions, but a gross representation would be a better season than last year barring no major injuries to the starting line-up cause that second unit is not impressing me at all.
Suicide King - thanks for the well-informed comment. You are definitely right, if they can significantly improve their wing defense and rebounding they could be positioned for a nice jump in their performance and number of wins.
ReplyDelete