2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

It's been a great year so far for point guards in the NBA. Just try to pick one to start on the Western Conference All Star team. You've got Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker who are all having spectacular seasons.

Who's leading the NBA point guard pack in production? The answer is below. You can find my ranking process on my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.  And, if you are interested, Deron Williams was the top-rated point guard for the 2009-10 season.

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final Rank . Chris Paul, NO 25.55 1 11 1 12.5 2 125 1 99 1 6 1 . Derrick Rose, CHI 23.13 5 9.4 4 7.1 4 111 17 102 4 34 2 . Tony Parker, SA 20.97 6 6.9 6 4 7 114 12 105 9 40 3 . Rajon Rondo, BOS 19.6 8 4.8 9 9 3 110 21 100 2 43 4 . Andre Miller, POR 19.07 9 5.5 7 6.8 5 112 14 107 22 57 5 . Deron Williams, UTAH 23.44 4 9.9 2 4.1 6 120 3 111 46 61 6 . Russell Westbrook, OKC 24.15 2 9.9 2 2.9 12 110 21 108 28 65 7 . Steve Nash, PHX 24.02 3 8.1 5 15.8 1 123 2 116 64 75 8 . Stephen Curry, GS 19.74 7 4.7 10 3.5 8 112 14 111 46 85 9 . George Hill, SA 14.53 34 1.8 32 3.3 11 116 7 105 9 93 10 . Shannon Brown, LAL 16.66 23 2.3 29 3.5 8 111 17 106 16 93 10 . Jose Calderon, TOR 17.95 12 3.7 16 2.4 13 116 7 112 51 99 12 . D.J. Augustin, CHA 16.69 22 3.9 13 0.8 24 119 5 110 39 103 13 . Jameer Nelson, ORL 16.09 25 2.9 22 -1 34 112 14 105 9 104 14 . Lou Williams, PHI 17.58 14 2.9 22 3.4 10 108 27 109 32 105 15 . Beno Udrih, SAC 16.95 17 3.9 13 -0.8 33 120 3 110 39 105 15 . Chauncey Billups, DEN 17.46 16 3.8 15 0.8 24 116 7 111 46 108 17 . Rodney Stuckey, DET 18.31 10 4.3 12 1.6 19 111 17 112 51 109 18 . Devin Harris, NJ 18.15 11 4.4 11 1 22 107 30 110 39 113 19 . Jason Kidd, DAL 14.75 33 2.6 26 1.9 16 104 35 103 6 116 20 . Jrue Holiday, PHI 15.92 27 3.5 17 1.1 21 104 35 106 16 116 20 . Mike Conley, MEM 15.5 30 3.3 18 1.9 16 107 30 107 22 116 20 . Earl Boykins, MIL 16.8 19 1.4 35 1 22 105 34 105 9 119 23 . Darren Collison, IND 16.77 20 3.1 19 -1 34 107 30 106 16 119 23 . Ty Lawson, DEN 16.74 21 2.8 24 2 15 115 11 112 51 122 25 . Raymond Felton, NY 17.75 13 5.3 8 -1 34 109 24 111 46 125 26 . Brandon Jennings, MIL 16.89 18 2.6 26 -1.5 39 103 37 104 7 127 27 . Kyle Lowry, HOU 15.24 31 2.7 25 1.2 20 110 21 109 32 129 28 . Luke Ridnour, MIN 16.26 24 3 20 0.1 28 118 6 113 54 132 29 . Eddie House, MIA 13.33 38 0.5 42 -3.2 48 116 7 104 7 142 30 . Ramon Sessions, CLE 17.56 15 3 20 0.7 26 108 27 114 58 146 31 . Daniel Gibson, CLE 15.08 32 2 31 2.4 13 109 24 113 54 154 32 . Mike Bibby, ATL 12.45 43 0.9 39 -0.5 32 113 13 108 28 155 33 . Gary Neal, SA 13.05 41 0.8 40 -2.5 44 109 24 106 16 165 34 . Tyreke Evans, SAC 14.28 35 2.1 30 -0.1 30 96 54 107 22 171 35 . Baron Davis, LAC 15.61 29 1.7 33 -3 46 102 40 109 32 180 36 . John Wall, WSH 15.72 28 2.4 28 -2.9 45 99 50 109 32 183 37 . Gilbert Arenas, ORL 12.91 42 1 38 0.1 29 95 54 107 22 185 38 . Aaron Brooks, HOU 16.02 26 1.2 36 -2 43 108 27 113 54 186 39 . Earl Watson, UTAH 11.35 51 0.1 50 1.7 18 102 40 108 28 187 40 . Patrick Mills, POR 13.32 39 0.5 42 0.4 27 102 40 110 39 187 40 . Shaun Livingston, CHA 11.5 50 0.2 46 -0.2 31 99 50 106 16 193 42 . Mario Chalmers, MIA 10.57 53 -0.2 54 -3.1 47 102 40 102 4 198 43 . Jordan Farmar, NJ 13.32 39 1.1 37 -1.2 37 100 47 110 39 199 44 . Carlos Arroyo, MIA 10.39 57 -0.3 56 -4 51 111 17 107 22 203 45 . Eric Maynor, OKC 11.8 46 0.2 46 -1.6 40 103 37 110 39 208 46 . C.J. Watson, CHI 10.46 56 -0.2 54 -1.4 38 92 60 101 3 211 47 . Jarrett Jack, NO 11.95 45 0.4 44 -4.3 54 96 54 106 16 213 48 . Jerryd Bayless, TOR 13.5 37 0.8 40 -3.5 49 107 30 114 58 214 49 . Derek Fisher, LAL 9.31 60 -1 63 -4.5 56 103 37 105 9 225 50 . Nate Robinson, BOS 10.9 52 0 52 -7.6 62 99 50 105 9 225 50 . T.J. Ford, IND 10.15 58 -0.3 56 -3.6 50 92 60 105 9 233 52 . Jose Juan Barea, DAL 11.54 48 0.2 46 -4.3 54 97 53 109 32 233 52 . Eugene Jeter, SAC 11.52 49 0.1 50 -1.9 42 100 47 111 46 234 54 . Mo Williams, CLE 13.99 36 1.5 34 -4.2 52 96 54 114 58 234 54 . Will Bynum, DET 11.97 44 0.2 46 -4.2 52 102 40 113 54 236 56 . Ronnie Price, UTAH 7.8 61 -0.8 60 -1.8 41 91 63 108 28 253 57 . Eric Bledsoe, LAC 10.5 55 -0.3 56 -5.1 57 94 59 109 32 259 58 . Steve Blake, LAL 7.6 62 -1.4 65 -8.8 64 102 40 109 32 263 59 . Goran Dragic, PHX 11.74 47 0.3 45 -7.4 61 95 54 114 58 265 60 . Ishmael Smith, HOU 9.32 59 -0.3 56 -6.5 59 92 60 110 39 273 61 . Chris Duhon, ORL 6.16 64 -1.1 64 -6.6 60 90 64 107 22 274 62 . Sebastian Telfair, MIN 10.52 54 -0.1 53 -5.5 58 101 47 115 62 274 62 . Acie Law, GS 6.72 63 -0.8 60 -8.2 63 102 40 116 64 290 64 . Jonny Flynn, MIN 4.77 65 -0.9 62 -10.2 65 80 65 115 62 319 65

I'll be posting my observations on this list in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts on the list by posting a comment below.

Phoenix Suns at the Quarter Pole

After losing Amare Stoudemire and adding a number of interesting parts, we didn't know what to expect from the Suns. So far they've been up and down. They have really good wins on the road at Utah, Atlanta and Los Angeles (over the Lakers). Their two worst losses are at Charlotte and home against Memphis. To their defense, Phoenix has played the seventh most difficult schedule in the NBA.

But ultimately if they hope to make the playoffs the Suns have to start winning more games. They are currently 11-12 and one game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. As competitive as the West is, it's hard to see a .500 team getting in. Before the season I predicted the Suns would be left out of the playoffs with a 48-34 record.

So what's worked for Phoenix and where do they need help?  Let's take a look at the statistics to see what they tell us.

Photo source: Ms. Phoenix

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.9 (3rd in the NBA) [115.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 113.4 (30th) [110.2 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.5 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.1 (1st) [110.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 109.5 (30th) [105.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.5 (8th) [95.3 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Jason Richardson
Offensive Rating: 116 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 114 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.6)

Channing Frye
Offensive Rating: 115 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (108)
PER: 12.7 (15.0)

Steve Nash
Offensive Rating: 120 (121)
Defensive Rating: 116 (114)
PER: 23.7 (21.6)

Grant Hill
Offensive Rating: 119 (114)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110)
PER: 18.0 (14.0)

Hedo Turkoglu
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 13.4 (13.3)

Hakim Warrick
Offensive Rating: 124 (110)
Defensive Rating: 115 (106)
PER: 19.1 (15.6)

Jared Dudley
Offensive Rating: 108 (124)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 12.2 (13.6)

Goran Dragic
Offensive Rating: 93 (110)
Defensive Rating: 113 (112)
PER: 12.7 (14.8)

Josh Childress
Offensive Rating: 117 (127 in 2007-08)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110 in 2007-08)
PER: 14.1 (17.8)

Robin Lopez
Offensive Rating: 100 (123)
Defensive Rating: 113 (110)
PER: 11.2 (17.6)

When looking at the team statistics you quickly notice that the Suns are not as good offensively as they were last year and have struggled mightily on defense.  Their 111.9 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but is 3.4 points lower than 2009-10.  That would be okay if their defense was solid, but it's not.  Phoenix is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions.  A big problem is that they are last in the league in opponent field goal percentage defense.  They are allowing opponents to make 42.2% of their shots.  That is three percentage points worse than last season.  The problem is most apparent in the paint where the Suns are allowing opponents to score 48.6 points per game, most in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns and Steve Nash are basically synonomous at this point.  And Nash is bringing it again in his 15th year.  His PER is currently above what it was in his two MVP seasons.  Most of his numbers are within reach of career highs.  For the most part he hasn't dropped off a bit.  The only exception is three-point shooting.  Right now he's at a career-worst 32.7%.  Also, in a common trend among the Suns, his Defensive Rating has fallen to a career worst.

Richardson has definitely embraced the Suns fast-paced offense.  He's having the best season of his career by PER.  At 44.0% he's shooting better behind the arc than he ever has.  His turnover rate is at a career low.  The only negative is that, like Nash, his Defensive Rating is the worst it's been in his career.  That includes his go-go years in Golden State.

With Lopez hurt, Frye is logging more minutes per game than he has before in his career.  His level of productivity seems to alternate every year and so far in 2010 he's on the down side.  His rebounds and assists per 36 minutes are both at career lows.  His three-point shooting has dropped from 43.9% last season to 38.6% so far in 2010.  On the good side, he's averaging a career high in blocks per 36 minutes.

Hill has been tremendous and is having his most productive season in five years.  Much of that stems from a career high field goal percentage of 53.6.  His turnover rate is currently the lowest it's been in any one season in his career.  But, like the others, he's posting the worst Defensive Rating of his career.

Phoenix picked up Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress with the hopes that they would make up for the loss of Stoudemire.  Turkoglu has played the most and been the least productive.  His performance has only been slightly better than his bad year last season in Toronto.  On a positive note he is shooting a career best 42.4% on threes.  Warrick is having the most productive year of his career.  That's mostly due to his 55.5% shooting, which is up 7.3% from 2009-10.  Childress has yet to find the form he had three years ago before leaving for Europe.  One thing that hasn't changed is his solid shooting.  He's at 57.0% from the field.

After a season in which they were solid contributors off the bench, both Dudley and Dragic are struggling in 2010.  For Dudley it's three-point shooting that's dragging him down.  He's at 31.1% this season after knocking down 45.8% in 2009-10.  Dragic has been cold from behind the arc as well (30.2%) and has also had a bit of a turnover problem.  He's averaging nearly two more per 36 minutes than he did last season.

Lopez showed a lot of promise last year while starting 31 games and posting a 17.6 PER.  A knee injury has limited him to only nine games and when he's been on the floor he's had trouble putting the ball in the hoop.  His field goal shooting has plummeted to 44.0% from 58.8% last season.

Nobody on the Suns is immune from defensive issues.  Every rotation player is posting the worst Defensive Rating of their career.  Clearly the team defense needs to be improved if Phoenix hopes to make the playoffs.  It would also help if they can get the rotation settled and have the dynamic bench impact that they've had in recent years.

Why do you think the Suns have been so bad defensively this year?  What can they do to make a run for the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Denver Nuggets - Early Season Returns

While facing daily speculation about trading Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 10-6 record.  They only have one bad loss, at Indiana.  "Bad" in this case is more a result of the ridiculous margin, 144-113, than the fact they lost the game.  They have also showed that they can beat the top teams.  They have wins over the Jazz, Lakers and Bulls at home, as well as a victory in Dallas. 

How does their performance measure up?  Let's take a look at the numbers.  But first, I predicted the Nuggets would finish the season with a 50-32 record.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.8 (17th) [107.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 2.6 [4.3 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.0 (5th) [106.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.6 (23rd) [102.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.0 (4th) [94.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Arron Afflalo
Offensive Rating: 119 (114 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 13.4 (10.8)

Carmelo Anthony
Offensive Rating: 111 (110)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 23.1 (22.2)

Chauncey Billups
Offensive Rating: 108 (120)
Defensive Rating: 110 (110)
PER: 14.5 (20.2)

Al Harrington
Offensive Rating: 103 (106)
Defensive Rating: 108 (111)
PER: 13.2 (16.8)

Nene
Offensive Rating: 125 (124)
Defensive Rating: 108 (105)
PER: 17.9 (18.9)

Ty Lawson
Offensive Rating: 110 (118)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 14.1 (16.5)

Shelden Williams
Offensive Rating: 108 (118)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 12.2 (14.1)

J.R. Smith
Offensive Rating: 111 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 16.1 (15.1)

Gary Forbes
Offensive Rating: 109 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 109
PER: 16.2

Melvin Ely
Offensive Rating: 125 (not in NBA last season)
Defensive Rating: 106
PER: 11.6

While the Nuggets offensive efficiency has slipped when compared to last season they still have the fourth best mark in the NBA.  The fact that their defensive efficiency is only slightly worse bodes well for Denver, who has been without the two players who had the best Defensive Ratings on the team last year, Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin.

Despite the daily rumors, Anthony has had a spectacular season so far.  His 23.1 PER puts him 11th in the NBA and is up from an excellent 22.2 in 2009/10.  Most impressively, he's pulling down two additional rebounds per game in 2010 despite the fact that he's averaging three less minutes per game.  That's because he's grabbing a career best 20.6% of the boards available to him on the defensive end.  That percentage is second among NBA small forwards who average more than 15 minutes per game.

Unfortunately for Denver, Billups has suffered a big drop in effectiveness.  His PER has fallen 5.7 points and his Offensive Rating has dropped 12 points per 100 possessions.  Both marks are 10 year lows.  His shooting percentage is way down to less than 37%.  His scoring, rebounds and assists averages are also down and his turnovers are up.

In his fourth year Afflalo continues to improve.  While his PER is not exactly spectacular, he is following up an excellent 2009/10 of 43.4% three-point shooting with 43.6% shooting from behind the arc this season.

Nene's PER is down a notch from 18.9 to 17.9 so far but there is nothing alarming in his statistics.  His steal rate has dropped a bit and he's down slightly on rebounds, which can be explained by Carmelo's hunger for the boards.

More disappointing for the Nuggets is the decrease in production year over year from Harrington and Lawson.  Granted, Harrington was not on the Denver roster last year, but when they signed him to a free agent deal I'm sure they didn't expect him to reach an eight year low in efficiency.  In Lawson's case the culprit is his shooting.  Otherwise, his assist rate is up and his turnover rate is down.  Obviously those are important statistics for a point guard.

After struggling last season, Smith seems to have found his game again.  Not only is he shooting a career best 40.9% from three-point range his rebound percentage is up and his turnover rate is down by almost 40%.

Beyond those key players, Denver has utilized Williams, Forbes and Ely in the frontcourt as they've waited for the return of Andersen and Martin.  Led by Anthony this team has performed as well as can be expected.  If he stays, and Billups and Harrington can raise their games up to their historical averages then the Nuggets may be able to make a surprise run toward the Western Conference Finals.

What have you seen that you've liked and disliked out of the Nuggets so far this season?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Early Season Returns

Little is expected from the Timberwolves this NBA season, but the nice thing is they've shown some reasons for hope.  It's not necessarily reflected in their 4-12 record, but in the mostly consistent impact of Kevin Love and Michael Beasley and in the recent flashes of competency by Darko Milicic.  Who else is exceeding or missing expectations?  Let's take a look at some advanced statistics.

But first, I predicted the Timberwolves would put up a 16-66 record.

Photo source: k1k0.com

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 101.7 (29th in the NBA) [101.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 110.8 (28th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -9.1 [-9.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [98.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 110.6 (30th) [107.8 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 99.1 (1st) [96.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Kevin Love
Offensive Rating: 113 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (109)
PER: 22.4 (20.7)

Michael Beasley
Offensive Rating: 100 (101)
Defensive Rating: 111 (103)
PER: 16.9 (16.1)

Wesley Johnson
Offensive Rating: 105 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 9.8

Darko Milicic
Offensive Rating: 90 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 12.5 (12.8)

Sebastian Telfair
Offensive Rating: 101 (98)
Defensive Rating: 115 (111)
PER: 10.4 (10.3)

Corey Brewer
Offensive Rating: 98 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (111)
PER: 12.8 (12.1)

Anthony Tolliver
Offensive Rating: 122 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (112)
PER: 14.3 (13.6)

Luke Ridnour
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 113 (106)
PER: 13.7 (17.7)

Wayne Ellington
Offensive Rating: 85 (101)
Defensive Rating: 114 (115)
PER: 5.3 (9.6)

Nikola Pekovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 8.7

After playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA in the 2009/10 season (96.1 possessions per game), Minnesota has sped up the game even more to play at the fastest pace (99.1) in the league through their first 16 games.  At this point it doesn't seem to be helping them very much.  While they've improved their defensive efficiency ever so slighly, their offensive efficiency is identical to last season.  The quicker pace does make them a little more fun for fans to watch.

Love has already posted some ridiculous stat lines.  His 31-point 31-rebound effort against the Knicks was phenomenal.  On Wednesday night he put up 32 and 22 against the Spurs.  He was a very productive player last year, although mostly under the radar, so his PER has not jumped dramatically.  But, it's very important to note that he is the 17th best player in the NBA right now by PER.

While Beasley's PER has improved slightly, it is somewhat alarming what he's done with his Defensive Rating.  It's fallen from a respectable 103 last season to 110 in 2010.  That can be attributed in part to pace.  Consider the Miami Heat team he was a member of in 2009/10 played at a pace of 89.6 possessions per game, nearly 10 fewer than the Timberwolves.  To his credit, he has raised his shooting percentages nicely, from 45.0 to 47.6 on twos and from 27.5 to 45.5 behind the arc.

No player in the rest of the rotation is producing at the NBA average PER of 15.0.  Free agent signee Tolliver is the closest at 14.3 in less than 20 minutes a game. 

Ridnour recently returned from a hamstring injury.  He's been decent but his PER has fallen from 17.7 last season to 13.7 so far in 2010.  However, he is shooting an impressive 40% from three-point range.  Telfair played the majority of the minutes at the point with Ridnour out.  Based on past performance, his production level is right about what should be expected. 

Besides Beasley, the Timberwolves are struggling to get production from their wings.  Brewer continues to improve at a snail's pace.  To the positive, his Defensive Rating is better by five points per 100 possessions.  Shooting has never been his strength but he's been particularly awful this season.  He's shooting a career worst 35.8%.  The rookie from Syracuse, Johnson, is also struggling with his shooting.

Clearly Minnesota will not be contending for the Western Conference playoffs, nobody expected that to happen.  But, to be happy about their progress they'll want to see some considerable growth in the players that they want to build their future around.  Right now there are just not enough of those types of players.  Love and Beasley are looking good.  Beyond that the Timberwolves need more consistent production from the other youngsters like Johnson and Brewer, and Johnny Flynn when he returns from injury.

What are your observations about the Timberwolves so far in this young season?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

What's Gone Wrong with the NBA's 0-3 Teams?

It's almost a full week into the NBA season.  There are five teams in the NBA that have gotten off to an 0-3 start - Charlotte Bobcats, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers.  While that is certainly not a death sentence, it's never a good idea to dig yourself a hole at the beginning of the season.  Each team has its own reasons for its slow start and different levels of hope for the future.

Phot source: lanchongzi

Charlotte Bobcats
How'd they get to 0-3?
101-86 at Dallas, 104-101 to Indiana at home and 98-88 at Milwaukee

What's gone wrong?
The Bobcats are 29th in the NBA in turnovers, averaging 18.3 per game.  That is especially bad because they play at the 29th slowest pace in the NBA.  Gerald Wallace is the biggest offender.  He's averaging five turnovers a game.  Charlotte is also allowing more than seven points more per game than they did last season.

Sound the Alarm - One Time
The only concerning loss of the three was the one to Indiana at home.  A big part of their success last year can be attributed to their ability to defend their home court.  They were 31-10 in Charlotte.  Still, D.J. Augustin has gotten off to a good start, as has Tyrus Thomas.  Those two will be the keys to the Bobcats' success this season.  Also, the last couple of playoff spots in the Eastern Conference will likely go to teams with sub-.500 records.

Detroit Pistons
How'd they get to 0-3?
101-98 at New Jersey, 105-104 to Oklahoma City at home and 101-91 at Chicago

What's gone wrong?
The Pistons cannot finish the game.  They are dead last in the NBA in 4th quarter scoring differential at -7.3.  They've also struggled to start the offense by taking the ball from the other team.  At 4.8%, their steal percentage is ranked 27th in the NBA.  Individually they are not getting good minutes from Richard Hamilton, Austin Daye or Tracy McGrady.

Sound the Alarm - Two Times
Detroit played well at home against OKC but the trend of blowing leads in the 4th quarter is a dangerous one.  Hamilton seems to have dropped even another level down and they are getting nothing from McGrady.  Like the Bobcats, the Pistons have the advantage of playing in the Eastern Conference.  They need to get right quickly and win some of the key games that lie in their November schedule.

Houston Rockets
How'd they get to 0-3?
112-110 at Lakers, 132-128 at Golden State and 107-94 to Denver at home

What's gone wrong?
The Rockets have been trying to work Yao back to health but he hasn't helped when he's been on the floor.  He was a team worst -19 against the Nuggets and worst among the starters at -6 against the Lakers.  They have also posted the NBA's worst defensive efficiency allowing 1.116 points per possession.

Sound the Alarm - Three Times
There is very little margin for error in the Western Conference.  Last season the eighth seed had 50 wins and it's very likely that you may need 50 wins to make the Western Conference playoffs again in 2010-11.  Houston has had some good individual play from Luis Scola and Kevin Martin so far.  But they will need a total team commitment to improving the defense if they are going to earn a playoff spot.

Los Angeles Clippers
How'd they get to 0-3?
98-88 to Portland at home, 109-91 at Golden State and 99-83 to Dallas at home

What's gone wrong?
It's the offense.  The Clippers are last in the NBA in offensive efficiency at .91 points per possession, last in points per game at 87.3 and 29th in scoring margin at -14.7.  This is largely a result of their last in the NBA field goal percentage of 37.7.  The Clippers are equal opportunity offenders.  The highest shooting percentage for a player taking more than four shots per game is 42. 

Sound the Alarm - Four Times
Playoffs was a word thrown around for the Clippers before the season started.  Three games in that is a pipe dream.  They have struggled severely to put the ball in the hoop.  Their next six games are home against San Antonio and Oklahoma City and then on the road at Denver, Utah, New Orleans and San Antonio.  They are staring 0-9 in the face.

Philadelphia 76ers
How'd they get to 0-3?
97-87 to Miami at home, 104-101 to Atlanta at home and 99-86 at Indiana

What's gone wrong?
For the Sixers it is the third quarter.  On average they are giving up 10 more points than they score in the third quarter.  This was especially damaging in what should be considered their most winnable game, at Indiana.  They came out of the locker room at half time tied at 51.  When the third quarter ended they were down by 12.  Individually they need Jrue Holiday to play better.  The second-year point guard is shooting less than 33% and barely exceeding his turnovers with assists.

Sound the Alarm - One Time
The next three games for Philadelphia are winnable so they could be at .500 in a week.  Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young are all playing good basketball.  If Holiday can pick his game up and the 76ers can find a way to improve their performance in the third quarter they can contend for an Eastern Conference playoff spot.

What are your observations on these five teams?  What would you prescribe to help them get more wins?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Western Conference Projections Review

Here are my full projected standings for the Western Conference:

Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers  54-28
Phoenix Suns  48-34
Los Angeles Clippers  39-43
Sacramento Kings  31-51
Golden State Warriors  26-56

Northwest
Portland Trail Blazers  56-26
Oklahoma City Thunder  54-28
Denver Nuggets  50-32
Utah Jazz  49-33
Minnesota Timberwolves  16-66

Southwest
Dallas Mavericks  53-29
San Antonio Spurs  52-30
Houston Rockets  49-33
New Orleans Hornets  43-39
Memphis Grizzlies  40-42

Memphis Grizzlies - Better or Worse

In most seasons Memphis would have gotten all the pub as a hugely improved team.  But with the Thunder's win total jumping by 27 in 2009-10 the Grizzlies' season over season gain of 16 wins didn't cause the waves it would have otherwise.  Still, it was a marked improvement for a team that had only accumulated 68 wins over the previous three seasons.  That's especially true when you consider that Memphis was 35-32 after the "Allen Iverson Experiment" crashed and burned.  The Grizzlies made minimal moves in the offseason so they'll rely predominantly on player development for a better season in 2010-11.  Will that be enough?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: Rennett Stowe

Point Guard
2009 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Marcus Williams (#65 PG, Below level)
2010 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Acie Law (Not enough minutes to qualify)

This may be the season that Conley has to prove that he can be a better than average point guard.  The biggest problem with Conley is that he has not really improved statistically over the course of his three years in the NBA.  I think that means he is who he is.  I don't expect Law to deliver any meaningful contributions off the bench.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7)
2010 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)

He's been tagged as having some type of breakout season last year, but in reality Mayo was not that productive.  He did improve his field-goal shooting percentage.  Most of his other statistics were relatively flat.  Allen is an excellent defender and can dunk.  He's very awkward on offense though.  I'll give a slight uptick here for the addition of Allen but I'm not sold that Mayo is interested in getting better.  Net wins - 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)

I don't mean to sound like a broke record, it's just the truth.  Here's another story of a player who's career arc has been essentially flat over the past few years.  In fact, last season Gay put up the lowest three-point shooting percentage of his four years in the NBA.  He leveraged a pretty good season when compared to other NBA small forwards into a max contract.  Young was a decent reserve in his rookie year.  Now that Gay has his big contract I think he's going to slide back a touch.  Net losses - 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), DeMarre Carroll (#68 PF, Below level)
2010 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), Darrell Arthur (Not enough minutes to qualify)

In a huge surprise, Randolph had one of the most productive seasons of his 9-year career.  He put up nearly 21 points and 12 rebounds while playing 38 minutes per game over 81 games.  It was a great year and one from which I think he can only go down from in 2010-11.  Arthur is really an unknown at this point.  Net losses - 1.

Center
2009 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)
2010 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)

Gasol was excellent last season, shooting 58 percent from the field and earning his way to a top 10 ranking among NBA centers.  Thabeet took a lot of heat early in his rookie season for being sent down to the D-League.  When all was said and done he was not horrible.  I like the potential for Gasol's continued development this season.  Net wins - 1.

Overall
Three areas where the Grizzlies really struggled in 2009-10 were three-point shooting, assists and turnovers.  They did nothing to improve any of those three areas with the possible exception of the drafting of Xavier Henry helping them behind the arc.  With the mix of players they have I see dissension written all over this team in 2010-11.  They also will not be able to sneak up on their opponents.

The Grizzlies finished last season at 40-42.  As noted above, I have them adding one win at center and half a win at shooting guard while staying even at point guard and losing one win at power forward and half a win at small forward.

In the final verdict Memphis is the SAME.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will again finish 40-42.

Am I being too harsh on the Grizzlies?  Will their young players break out this season?  Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.