Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Boston Celtics - Better or Worse?

The Celtics are coming off an excellent season where they took the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink during a thrilling, but odd, NBA Finals.  Heading into the offseason they were at a fork in the road.  The two options were to either make one more run or start to tear down and rebuild.  The Celtics chose to make another run and brought back coach Doc Rivers along with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.  How do they look for 2010?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)

There will be no changes at the point guard position for the Celtics.  Rondo was a huge contributor in the playoffs and I think he can be expected to bear a bigger load for Boston.  Having Robinson from the beginning of the season will help as well.

Photo source: walknboston
Shooting Guard
2009 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)

Ray Allen is back at shooting guard for the Celtics, but Tony Allen has taken the money and moved on to the Memphis Grizzlies.  Boston made a good move in bringing West in as the backup.  He can't be expected to be the stellar defender that Tony Allen was but he should add something on the offensive end, especially if he can get his three point percentage back up into the high 30s. 

Small Forward
2009 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)

Never was there a doubt that Pierce would resign with Boston. 

Power Forward
2009 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)
2010 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)

The Celtics head into 2010 with the same two-deep plan at power forward.  Davis had some excellent flashes of skill during the Finals.

Center
2009 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5), Rasheed Wallace (#35 C, Level 7)
2010 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5, Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Jermaine O'Neal (#15, Level 4)

Because of the Perkins injury the Celtics had some work to do to solidify the center position.  They did so by adding the two O'Neals.  I was quite surprised when I did the calculations and saw Jermaine's numbers.  His regular season last year was much more respectable than I thought.

Overall
After winning the Atlantic division with a 50-32 record the Celtics really started to excel in the playoffs, exactly how Doc Rivers planned it.  I expect them to approach the regular season in a similar way in 2010.  They'll have a lot of continuity, but with aging players I expect some of the skill to fade.  However, a consistent jump in Rondo's play could make up for it.  According to my formula, they stay the same at point guard, small forward and power forward.  They'll pick up a win at center and lose one at shooting guard.  I think Rondo's evolution and a bad division will be good for an additional win.

In the final verdict the Celtics are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 51-31.

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