Miami Heat - Better or Worse

I think the answer to that question is clear.  The Heat made the big splash over the summer, persuading LeBron to "take [his] talents to South Beach," along with Chris Bosh.  Dwayne Wade returned to form the Miami Three or Evil Empire or some other clever nickname.  There is much debate about whether the "Super Team" concept is good for the NBA.  I fall strongly on the positive side of that debate.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Miami Beach Photo: humbertomoreno

Back to our main premise - the Heat are better, but by how much?

Point Guard
2009 - Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6), Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9)
2009 - Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9), Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6)

Rafer Alston was also a contributor to the Heat at point guard last year.  After a solid rookie season Chalmers was a disappointment last season.  He'll have two options - step up his game or sit on the bench.  It's very likely that LeBron will play point forward, especially in the clutch

Shooting Guard
2009 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Daequan Cook (#69 SG, below level)
2010 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Mike Miller (#23 SG, Level 5)

You can't get much better than Wade, who finished just behind Manu Ginobili in the shooting guard rankings.  Miller could be considered for shooting guard or small forward.  I put him in as a guard because he played that role predominantly last season.  This year he'll be more like the backup wing.

Small Forward
2009 - Quentin Richardson (#18 SG, Level 4), Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4)
2010 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1)

The Heat actually got some pretty good production from the small forward position in 2009-2010.  Of course, LeBron takes that to a whole new level.  The win difference here is hard to predict because he is so far and away better than every other small forward.

Power Forward
2009 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Bosh (#8 PF, Level 3), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)

Bosh led all NBA power forwards in PER but his cumulative ranking was dragged down by his Defensive Rating.  That rating can be greatly influenced by the team.  If Haslem can put the spliffs down for long enough he'll be an excellent backup.

Center
2009 - Jermaine O'Neal (#15 C, Level 4), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)
2010 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)

It will be interesting to see what the Heat do at the center position.  They have a number of players (Ilgauskas, Anthony, Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire) who can play the position for short periods of time.  It's certainly possible that Bosh and Haslem get some playing time at the five as well.

Overall
Last year the Heat finished 47-35 and had the five seed in the Eastern Conference.  While their record was good, it was clear in the playoffs that Wade needed a lot more help.  He definitely has help now.  Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them adding one win at point guard (with LeBron and Chalmers' improvement), three wins at shooting guard, nine wins at small forward and four wins at power forward, while losing two wins at center.

In the final verdict the Heat are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 62-20.  Man, that seems low, but that's what I've got.

What do you think?  Is my prediction too low or realistic?  Let me know in the comments section below.