Orlando Magic - Better or Worse

Photo source: Sreejith K

The Magic followed up their 59-23 season and NBA Finals loss to the Lakers with an identical record in 2009-2010, but with an earlier playoff exit.  Orlando was beaten and frustrated by the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, losing in six games.  Now, after playing the role of the hunted over the past couple of seasons the Magic will be one of the hunters looking to take down the new goliath, the Miami Heat.  How close are they to the Heat?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Jameer Nelson (#17 PG, Level 4), Jason Williams (#21 PG, Level 5)
2010 - Jameer Nelson (#17 PG, Level 4), Jason Williams (#21 PG, Level 5)

The Magic also signed Chris Duhon. I'm not sure why it took them so long to re-sign Williams.  He had a really solid season.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Vince Carter (#5 SG, Level 2), J.J. Redick (#19 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Vince Carter (#5 SG, Level 2), J.J. Redick (#19 PG, Level 4)

Another position with the same two deep as last season.  Statistically Carter had a good regular season but he looked old and unproductive when the Magic needed him in the playoffs.  On the other hand, Redick was steadily effective.  Expect the distribution of playing time to change in '10-'11.

Small Forward
2009 - Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3), Mickael Pietrus (#36 SF, Level 8)
2010 - Quentin Richardson (#18 SG, Level 4), Mickael Pietrus (#36 SF, Level 8)

Richardson, while not providing the defense that Barnes offers, is a stellar three point shooter who knocked down nearly 40% of his shots behind the arc last season.  He's an excellent addition to the Magic's spread everybody out around the three point line offense.

Power Forward
2009 - Rashard Lewis (#35 PF, Level 6), Ryan Anderson (#15 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Rashard Lewis (#35 PF, Level 6), Ryan Anderson (#15 PF, Level 4)

No real changes at the power forward position for the Magic.  There's been talk that Brandon Bass will get more playing time, but we'll leave it like this for now.

Center
2009 - Dwight Howard (#1 C, Level 1), Marcin Gortat (#26 C, Level 5)
2010 - Dwight Howard (#1 C, Level 1), Marcin Gortat (#26 C, Level 5)

Howard and Tim Duncan were a dominating one and two in the center rankings.  Gortat is a quality backup with a big contract.

Overall
The Magic were not in a position to make any major changes to their lineup in the offseason.  The only move that they made that will really affect the rotation is the signing of Richardson to replace Barnes.  In large part they will be banking on Howard to take another step toward domination.  To do so he'll have to develop his low post moves to enhance his ability to score.  The Magic will also need another solid effort from their bench, a rebound year from Lewis and more production from Carter when it counts.  Orlando has been mentioned as a potential destination for Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony, but it seems unlikely that either of those players will end up there this season.  So, based on their projected lineup I've got them staying even at point guard, shooting guard and power forward, while losing a win at small forward and gaining a win (based on Howard's development) at center.

In the final verdict the Magic are THE SAME.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 59-23 for the third season in a row.  That record would put them three games behind my predicted finish for the Heat.

What are your thoughts on Orlando?  Do you think they'll have more wins or fewer?