Much was expected of the Thunder coming into this season. Many NBA experts were throwing around Oklahoma City's name as a team that could challenge the Lakers in the Western Conference.
After some early season struggles (they started 3-3) the Thunder have gotten back to their winnning ways. However, unlike 2009-2010 when they were incredibly healthy, they have been bitten by the injury bug this season. Kevin Durant has already missed four of their 20 games while Jeff Green has missed seven.
What's working and what's not for OKC? Let's take a look at the statistics. But first,
I predicted the Thunder would finish the season at 54-28.
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.3 (12th in the NBA) [108.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 108.6 (20th) [104.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -0.3 [3.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 103.1 (7th) [101.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.3 (22nd) [98.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 92.8 (15th) [93.1 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Russell Westbrook
Offensive Rating: 112 (105)
Defensive Rating: 107 (106)
PER: 26.1 (17.8)
Kevin Durant
Offensive Rating: 105 (118)
Defensive Rating: 108 (104)
PER: 20.7 (26.2)
Thabo Sefolosha
Offensive Rating: 112 (103)
Defensive Rating: 107 (104)
PER: 10.6 (9.8)
Serge Ibaka
Offensive Rating: 125 (109)
Defensive Rating: 106 (101)
PER: 18.5 (15.2)
Jeff Green
Offensive Rating: 115 (106)
Defensive Rating: 111 (105)
PER: 16.0 (13.8)
James Harden
Offensive Rating: 106 (109)
Defensive Rating: 109 (104)
PER: 11.5 (14.0)
Nenad Krstic
Offensive Rating: 101 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (106)
PER: 10.0 (13.7)
Eric Maynor
Offensive Rating: 110 (103)
Defensive Rating: 110 (107)
PER: 14.6 (11.8)
Nick Collison
Offensive Rating: 107 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (105)
PER: 9.1 (13.1)
The thing that immediately jumps out when you look at OKC's team stats is their Defensive Rating. It's going in the wrong direction, up four points to 108.6. They are allowing their opponents to make 39.1% of their shots. That number is fifth worst in the NBA. Last season they were tied with the 10th best mark at 36.6%. They are specifically bad at defending the three, allowing their opponents to shoot 39.0% behind the arc, which is fourth worst in the NBA. Their 34.0% mark last year was tied for third best.
Looking at the players, Westbrook has exploded this year. He's currently ranked 2nd in the NBA in PER, just behind Chris Paul. He's also got a positive rating differential for the first time in his three year career. When Durant has been out, much of the responsibility for carrying the Thunder has fallen on Westbrook and he has responded. All of his stats have shown gains over last season. Most importantly, his shooting has improved from 41.8% to 44.7%.
After being as healthy as possible last season, Durant has been hampered by injuries in 2010. It's only caused him to miss four games but has clearly affected him in others. While still tremendous, his 20.7 PER is down 5.5 points. For the first time since his rookie season, he's working with a negative rating differential (-3). His field-goal shooting is down from 47.6% in 2009/10 to 41.9% and his three-point shooting has fallen a ghastly 9.8% to 26.7%.
The quick ascension of Ibaka has been impressive. In only his second year, the hidden gem is putting up an impressive 18.5 PER. He's making more than 56% of his shots and leads the team with 2.2 blocks per game. He also has the best Defensive Rating of the rotation players.
After a
shockingly ineffective 2009/10, Green has been much more productive while playing in 13 of the first 20 games of this season. He's at the highest PER of his career, 16.0. For the third year in a row he has raised his Offensive Rating, it's currently the second best on the team. He's shooting a career best 82.6% from the free throw line and has decreased his turnovers despite playing more minute per game. Now if he can only stay healthy.
Known as a defensive player, Sefolosha has the highest Offensive Rating of his career. It is also the first time his differential has been in positive territory. However, he's still not producing a lot, as his 10.6 PER is way below the league average of 15.0.
Harden has taken a step back after a solid rookie season. His PER is down 2.5 points. He's not shooting as well, only 36.5% on field goals compared to 40.3% in 2009/10, and it is affecting his confidence.
After contributing steadily last season, both Krstic and Collison have seen substantial dropoffs. In Collison's case it may be due to his continued recovery from serious knee issues.
Unlike Harden, Maynor has shown steady improvement in his second year. He's shooting much better and has cut his turnover rate.
While they have not taken the next big step, Oklahoma City has carried their level of solid play over from the end of last season. They do need to shore up the defense and to hope that injuries do not continue to be part of their 2010/11 story. If Durant can come close to his massive production numbers last season, Harden can find his shooting stroke and Westbrook, Ibaka and Green can match their early effectiveness, this team may very well challenge the Lakers.
What are your thoughts on the Thunder 20 games into the season? Are they playing the way you thought they would? Post a comment below and let's discuss.
