Oklahoma City Thunder - Better or Worse

It's not often that a team doubles its wins total from the season before.  The Thunder did that and more in 2009-10 as they quickly grew from cute puppies to vicious dogs.  Then they impressed even more by taking the defending, and eventual, champion Lakers to six games in a highly competitive first round playoff series.  The good feelings about Oklahoma City grew even more over the summer as Kevin Durant worked his way into more and more of the fans good graces as he led Team USA to a gold medal in the World Championships.  And for good measure, Russell Westbrook earned accolades by many as the second best player on that team.  Are the Thunder ready to take an even bigger step in 2010-11?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Russell Westbrook (#8 PG, Level 2), Eric Maynor (#41 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Russell Westbrook (#8 PG, Level 2), Eric Maynor (#41 PG, Level 8)

Westbrook took a nice step forward in his second season.  If he can improve his shooting he can be even more deadly.  Maynor proved to be a solid backup as a rookie.  I expect both players to improve further in 2010-11.  Net wins - 2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Thabo Sefolosha (#43 SG, Level 8), James Harden (#17 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Thabo Sefolosha (#43 SG, Level 8), James Harden (#17 SG, Level 4)

Defense is Sefolosha's specialty on the wing.  Harden had a better rookie year than he was given credit for.  He'll continue to develop.  Net wins - 1.

Photo source: Yzukerman

Small Forward
2009 - Kevin Durant (#2 SF, Level 2)
2010 - Kevin Durant (#2 SF, Level 2)

An incredible talent, Durant will be starting his fourth season as a favorite for the MVP award.  He was spectacular in 2009-10 and led the NBA in scoring.  Expect more of the same this season.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Jeff Green (#50 PF, Level 8), Serge Ibaka (#31 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Jeff Green (#50 PF, Level 8), Serge Ibaka (#31 PF, Level 6)

I was shocked when I initially ran the numbers and saw Green's poor ranking among power forwards.  Ibaka was a revelation in his rookie year, providing more than the Thunder could have expected.  I like a subtle tick up at the four for Oklahoma City.  Net wins - 1.

Center
2009 - Nenad Krstic (#31 C, Level 7), Nick Collison (#26, Level 6)
2010 - Nenad Krstic (#31 C, Level 7), Cole Aldrich (Rookie)

Krstic put in a good season for the Thunder, as did Collison.  Aldrich should be a good defensive addition to the team but you can expect some growing pains.  Still, he needs to get minutes for the long term benefit of the Thunder.  Net Losses - 1.

Overall
When the question of who is the biggest challenger to the Lakers in the Western Conference is asked, a number of experts are choosing Oklahoma City.  I really like this team but I think it is too soon to say that.  Let's remember, this group has not even won a playoff series yet.  It's often a big jump for a young team to go from pesky first round opponent to the conference finals. 

Two areas where the Thunder underperformed as a team in 2009-10 were turnovers (22nd in NBA) and three-point shooting percentage (25th in NBA).  They did nothing to substantially improve in those areas, although deep bench additions Daequan Cook and Morris Peterson could help behind the arc.  To most effectively solidify those areas they'll need improvement from the core group.

Oklahoma City finished last season with a 50-32 record.  As I documented above, I have them picking up two more wins at point guard and one apiece at shooting guard, small forward and power forward, while dropping one at center.

In the final verdict the Thunder are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict a regular season record of 54-28.

What are your thoughts on my projection for the Thunder?  Let me know by posting a comment below.