Utah Jazz Off to Strong 18-8 Start

Utah started the 2010-11 NBA season by stumbling out of the gates.  They lost three of their first five games.  Then the Jazz beat the Clippers in overtime and tore through the Southeast Division, beating the Heat, Magic, Hawks and Bobcats on the road.  Since then they've been mostly steady, although they've lost at home four times in that stretch of 16 games.

What do the stats tell us about the Jazz in the first 26 games?  Let's take a look.

But before we do, I projected that the Jazz would finish the season with a 49-33 record.

Photo source: Argyleist

Team Stats

Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.1 (7th in the NBA) [110.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.7 (12th) [105.0 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 4.4 [5.7 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.3 (10th) [104.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 97.3 (13th) [98.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.9 (22nd) [93.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Deron Williams
Offensive Rating: 120 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 108 (107)
PER: 24.9 (20.6)

Al Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 108 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 17.3 (19.0)

Paul Millsap
Offensive Rating: 120 (113)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 21.4 (16.7)

Andrei Kirilenko
Offensive Rating: 110 (117)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 15.1 (18.2)

Raja Bell
Offensive Rating: 107 (116)
Defensive Rating: 109 (107)
PER: 9.1 (13.8)

C.J. Miles
Offensive Rating: 103 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (107)
PER: 15.5 (10.8)

Earl Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.6 (10.9)

Ronnie Price
Offensive Rating: 90 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 7.6 (10.3)

Francisco Elson
Offensive Rating: 109 (90)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 11.1 (5.5)

Gordon Hayward
Offensive Rating: 80 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 110
PER: 2.5

Kyrylo Fesenko
Offensive Rating: 94 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (105)
PER: 6.4 (9.7)

The most interesting thing about the team statistics for the Jazz is the difference in their pace.  They are averaging nearly three fewer possessions per game so far this season when compared to 2009-10.  As a team they shot spectacularly last year - 49.0%, tied for first in the NBA.  They've dropped some in 2010 to 46.9% but that's still good for sixth in the NBA.  Much of that drop off can be attributed to three-point shooting where they are at 34.4%, down from 36.5% last season.  Another area where Utah is lagging from last season is defensive rebounds.  In 2009-10 the Jazz pulled down 75.1% of all the rebounds available to them when they were on defense.  Through the first 26 games of this season they are only grabbing 69.9% of those boards, 26th in the NBA.  On the positive side - they are second in both assists per game and turnovers per game.

There's no doubt that Williams is Utah's leader.  He's having the most effective season of his career and currently ranks fifth in the NBA in PER.  He's scoring more per 36 minutes (21.7) than he ever has while also posting the highest True Shooting Percentage of his career.

Jefferson is still adjusting to Utah after coming over in a trade from Minnesota.  His PER is down 1.7 points and he's shooting a career worst 46.9%.  He's also averaging a career worst 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.  Positively, he's averaging a career best 1.2 turnovers per 36 minutes.

He's always been a productive player, but Millsap has been even more effective this season, posting a career high 21.4 PER.  He's shooting better than he ever has from the field (55.0%) and free throw line (72.5%).  Like Jefferson though, he is averaging a career low in rebounds per 36 minutes (8.2).

After an outstanding 2009-10 (he finished third in my NBA Small Forward Rankings), Kirilenko has fallen off through the first 26 games.  His PER is down 3.1 points to 15.1.  He's shooting a career high 40.0% from behind the arc but a career low 43.7% overall.  He's averaging career lows in steals (1.2) and blocks (1.3) per 36 minutes and a near career low in rebounds (5.6).

Utah liked Bell for his defense and three-point shooting.  But after a career high PER in 2009-10 he's putting up his lowest PER in eight years.  Impressively, coming into this season Bell had shot better than 40% from behind the arc in seven of the last eight seasons.  He's shooting just 36.2% through 26 games. 

The story with Miles is nearly the opposite of Bell's.  He's bounced back from a bad 2009-10 and improved his PER by 4.7 points to 15.5.  He still has a negative rating differential but has contributed in all areas of statistically.

Beyond Miles the Jazz have been playing a lot of guys off the bench.  The reason so many guys are getting time is probably because none of them has been very effective.  With a PER of 11.1, Elson has been the most productive.  He's shooting a career best 53.2% from the field.  Watson is giving Utah nearly exactly what they should have expected as most of his numbers are right around his career averages.  Price has a career low 7.6 PER.  His assist rate is way down but his steal rate is up.  Fesenko has been their best rebounder.  Hayward is struggling to find his NBA game. 

The Jazz currently have a 69.2 winning percentage, which if maintainted will be their best in more than 10 seasons.  They have been very successful in the first quarter of the season without Mehmet Okur touching the floor.  His return should help improve Utah's ability to hit the three but it won't give a big boost to their rebounding.  Those are the two areas the Jazz need to reinforce in order to make a strong playoff run.  They would also be helped a great deal by Kirilenko returning to his highly productive form of last season.

What are your thoughts on the Jazz through 26 games?  Post a comment below and let's discuss.

Utah Jazz - Better or Worse

Like clockwork, the Jazz had another solid season, finishing second to the Nuggets in the most competitive division in the NBA and fifth overall in the Western Conference.  They made up for losing the Northwest Division tiebreaker to Denver by beating them in six games in the first round of the playoffs.  They were then swept out by the Lakers.  And in the offseason it finally happened - Carlos Boozer moved on to another team.  After years of rumors about Boozer being traded he left this summer to join the Bulls in what eventually became a sign and trade.  However, Utah did not let his spot get cold.  They moved quickly to bring Al Jefferson into the mix.  Will the addition of Jefferson be enough to keep the Jazz in the upper echelon of the West?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: _rockinfree

Point Guard
2009 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Ronnie Price (#55 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Earl Watson (#47 PG, Level 9)

Although Williams didn't rank first in any of the five categories of statistical analysis that I used to compare players, when you added his rankings up he was at the top of the point guard list.  He's clearly established himself as one of the elite set up men in the league.  You may argue that Chris Paul is better, but if so, you have to concede that Williams is not far behind.  Watson is simply okay as the primary backup.  I don't think you can expect anymore from Williams, but I also don't think he'll provide any less.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Raja Bell (Injured), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)

On paper the Jazz will take a big hit at the shooting guard position.  In good conscience they couldn't give Matthews a contract near what he received from Portland after just one year.  They also lost Korver to the Bulls.  They successfully lured defensive standout Bell from the grips of the Lakers, but he's coming off a bad injury and you have to wonder how much he has left.  Meanwhile, Miles was barely more than just a guy last season.  Net losses - 4.

Small Forward
2009 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), Gordon Hayward (Rookie)

Kirilenko had a resurgence of sorts last season and was very productive in his minutes on the floor.  It's injuries that could continue to bring him down.  Hayward parlayed a strong showing at the NCAA Tournament into being picked in the NBA Lottery.  To contribute in his first year he'll have to develop a consistent jump shot.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)

Boozer's wandering eye frustrated Jazz management, fans and probably even teammates.  But, he still led the team in scoring and rebounding in the regular season.  His absence will be felt, especially on a team that lacks depth on the front line.  Millsap saw decreased minutes last season because of Boozer's relative health but he was still very effective.  Jefferson will be the primary "backup."  I think the loss of Boozer hurts them at the four.  Net losses - 3.

Center
2009 - Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
2010 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)

Likely to feel reborn after experiencing a great deal of losing in Minnesota, Jefferson should return to his production numbers of a couple of years ago.  I've got him primarily at the five due to Okur's achilles injury.  Okur suffered through injuries most of last season and his numbers showed it.  It looks like he will return some time in November.  Until then Utah will have serious depth issues at the four and five.  Still, I like Jefferson to be a beast in the middle.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
The Jazz have been one of the most consistently good teams in the NBA.  They'll need their new pieces, Jefferson, Bell and Hayward, to step right in and produce if that is going to be the case in 2010-11.  In addition, they are frightfully thin at almost every position so any type of mid- to long-term injury could really derail the season.

Utah finished 2009-10 at 53-29.  As I've documented above, I've got them adding two wins at center and one at small forward while dropping four at shooting guard and three at power forward and breaking even at point guard.

In the final verdict, the Jazz are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will finish the season at 49-33.

How many wins do you think the Jazz will get in 2010-11?  Let me know be making a comment below.