NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Utah Jazz - Better or Worse

Like clockwork, the Jazz had another solid season, finishing second to the Nuggets in the most competitive division in the NBA and fifth overall in the Western Conference.  They made up for losing the Northwest Division tiebreaker to Denver by beating them in six games in the first round of the playoffs.  They were then swept out by the Lakers.  And in the offseason it finally happened - Carlos Boozer moved on to another team.  After years of rumors about Boozer being traded he left this summer to join the Bulls in what eventually became a sign and trade.  However, Utah did not let his spot get cold.  They moved quickly to bring Al Jefferson into the mix.  Will the addition of Jefferson be enough to keep the Jazz in the upper echelon of the West?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: _rockinfree

Point Guard
2009 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Ronnie Price (#55 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Earl Watson (#47 PG, Level 9)

Although Williams didn't rank first in any of the five categories of statistical analysis that I used to compare players, when you added his rankings up he was at the top of the point guard list.  He's clearly established himself as one of the elite set up men in the league.  You may argue that Chris Paul is better, but if so, you have to concede that Williams is not far behind.  Watson is simply okay as the primary backup.  I don't think you can expect anymore from Williams, but I also don't think he'll provide any less.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Raja Bell (Injured), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)

On paper the Jazz will take a big hit at the shooting guard position.  In good conscience they couldn't give Matthews a contract near what he received from Portland after just one year.  They also lost Korver to the Bulls.  They successfully lured defensive standout Bell from the grips of the Lakers, but he's coming off a bad injury and you have to wonder how much he has left.  Meanwhile, Miles was barely more than just a guy last season.  Net losses - 4.

Small Forward
2009 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), Gordon Hayward (Rookie)

Kirilenko had a resurgence of sorts last season and was very productive in his minutes on the floor.  It's injuries that could continue to bring him down.  Hayward parlayed a strong showing at the NCAA Tournament into being picked in the NBA Lottery.  To contribute in his first year he'll have to develop a consistent jump shot.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)

Boozer's wandering eye frustrated Jazz management, fans and probably even teammates.  But, he still led the team in scoring and rebounding in the regular season.  His absence will be felt, especially on a team that lacks depth on the front line.  Millsap saw decreased minutes last season because of Boozer's relative health but he was still very effective.  Jefferson will be the primary "backup."  I think the loss of Boozer hurts them at the four.  Net losses - 3.

Center
2009 - Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
2010 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)

Likely to feel reborn after experiencing a great deal of losing in Minnesota, Jefferson should return to his production numbers of a couple of years ago.  I've got him primarily at the five due to Okur's achilles injury.  Okur suffered through injuries most of last season and his numbers showed it.  It looks like he will return some time in November.  Until then Utah will have serious depth issues at the four and five.  Still, I like Jefferson to be a beast in the middle.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
The Jazz have been one of the most consistently good teams in the NBA.  They'll need their new pieces, Jefferson, Bell and Hayward, to step right in and produce if that is going to be the case in 2010-11.  In addition, they are frightfully thin at almost every position so any type of mid- to long-term injury could really derail the season.

Utah finished 2009-10 at 53-29.  As I've documented above, I've got them adding two wins at center and one at small forward while dropping four at shooting guard and three at power forward and breaking even at point guard.

In the final verdict, the Jazz are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will finish the season at 49-33.

How many wins do you think the Jazz will get in 2010-11?  Let me know be making a comment below.

Chicago Bulls - Better or Worse?

After a wild season in which they won 10 of their last 14 games to salvage a playoff spot after losing 10 in row to almost give it away, the Bulls went into the offseason with the money to make a splash and attractive pieces already in place. They made the moves they needed to in order to dump salary but in the end they were unable to bring in a top two or three player. They did "settle" for Carlos Boozer, who is a pretty good consolation prize. Unfortunately it was announced yesterday that he broke his hand and will miss around eight weeks. How will the Bulls fare in the 2010-2011 season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: BrentDPayne

Point Guard
2009 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), Jannero Pargo (#60 PG, Below level)
2010 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)

Rose was ranked among the top half of point guards last season and should move into the top 10 this season. The signing of Watson could prove to be the best under the radar move of the offseason.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kirk Hinrich (#39 SG, Level 7), Ronald Murray (#54 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)

Chicago upgraded the two guard position at both starter and backup. Korver is coming off a sneaky good season. If he can stay healthy he'll add an important three point shooting dimension to the offense.

Small Forward
2009 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)

This is the one position where the two-deep will not change from last season.

Power Forward
2009 - Taj Gibson (#41 PF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Taj Gibson (#42 PF, Level 7)

Boozer gives the Bulls an impactful improvement at the four, but that will be tempered a bit by the injury.

Center
2009 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)
2010 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Kurt Thomas (#50 C, Level 9)

Now that he's gotten his extension, it is important that Noah takes another step forward in his development. They may miss the versatility of Miller, but Thomas is a solid backup.

Overall
Although they did not get LeBron or D Wade, the Bulls made a lot of solid moves to improve this offseason. If the new pieces can gel with the existing talent, Chicago should win the Central Division and earn a home playoff series or two.

Last season the Bulls finished with a 41-41 record. Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them picking up three wins at point guard, three wins at shooting guard and three wins at power forward (would have been five without the Boozer injury) while staying even at small forward and center.

In the final verdict the Bulls are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 50-32.

Does that prediction sound about right or do you think I'm off? Do you like the moves the Bulls made in the offseason? Post a comment below and let me know your thoughts.