(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
 |
| Photo source: _rockinfree |
Point Guard
2009 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Ronnie Price (#55 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Earl Watson (#47 PG, Level 9)
Although Williams didn't rank first in any of the five categories of statistical analysis that I used to compare players, when you added his rankings up he was at the top of the point guard list. He's clearly established himself as one of the elite set up men in the league. You may argue that Chris Paul is better, but if so, you have to concede that Williams is not far behind. Watson is simply okay as the primary backup. I don't think you can expect anymore from Williams, but I also don't think he'll provide any less. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Raja Bell (Injured), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
On paper the Jazz will take a big hit at the shooting guard position. In good conscience they couldn't give Matthews a contract near what he received from Portland after just one year. They also lost Korver to the Bulls. They successfully lured defensive standout Bell from the grips of the Lakers, but he's coming off a bad injury and you have to wonder how much he has left. Meanwhile, Miles was barely more than just a guy last season. Net losses - 4.
Small Forward
2009 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), Gordon Hayward (Rookie)
Kirilenko had a resurgence of sorts last season and was very productive in his minutes on the floor. It's injuries that could continue to bring him down. Hayward parlayed a strong showing at the NCAA Tournament into being picked in the NBA Lottery. To contribute in his first year he'll have to develop a consistent jump shot. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
Boozer's wandering eye frustrated Jazz management, fans and probably even teammates. But, he still led the team in scoring and rebounding in the regular season. His absence will be felt, especially on a team that lacks depth on the front line. Millsap saw decreased minutes last season because of Boozer's relative health but he was still very effective. Jefferson will be the primary "backup." I think the loss of Boozer hurts them at the four. Net losses - 3.
Center
2009 - Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
2010 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
Likely to feel reborn after experiencing a great deal of losing in Minnesota, Jefferson should return to his production numbers of a couple of years ago. I've got him primarily at the five due to Okur's achilles injury. Okur suffered through injuries most of last season and his numbers showed it. It looks like he will return some time in November. Until then Utah will have serious depth issues at the four and five. Still, I like Jefferson to be a beast in the middle. Net wins - 2.
Overall
The Jazz have been one of the most consistently good teams in the NBA. They'll need their new pieces, Jefferson, Bell and Hayward, to step right in and produce if that is going to be the case in 2010-11. In addition, they are frightfully thin at almost every position so any type of mid- to long-term injury could really derail the season.
Utah finished 2009-10 at 53-29. As I've documented above, I've got them adding two wins at center and one at small forward while dropping four at shooting guard and three at power forward and breaking even at point guard.
In the final verdict, the Jazz are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict they will finish the season at 49-33.
How many wins do you think the Jazz will get in 2010-11? Let me know be making a comment below.
wow couldn't disagree with you more.
ReplyDelete@ Anonymous - thanks for the comment. I'd be happy to hear what you specifically disagree with or why you think the Jazz are positioned to have an excellent year.
ReplyDeleteTwo letters... BS....
ReplyDeleteAnybody who actually watched the playoffs last year would know that C.J. Miles was not "barely more than just a guy." And he looks improved this season. This bare statistical analysis also doesn't account for Kyrylo Fesenko's improvement and the intangibles that guys like Bell and Hayward bring (toughness and high basketball IQ, respectively), along with contributions guys like Francisco Elson and Jeremy Evans might make. Also, I am extremely suspicious of any analysis that says Carlos Boozer is a Level 2 and Al Jefferson is a Level 5. Nothing I've seen, statistical or otherwise, justifies that big a gap between those two.
ReplyDelete@Anonymous - Thanks for your well-thought out and well-informed comment. I did not factor in the playoffs. If Miles can continue that level of contribution he will clearly make a difference in the win total this season.
ReplyDeleteYou are right - this formula does not account for the contributions of bit players. That penalizes the teams with solid depth, but I don't think the Jazz are one of those teams.
You also reference Bell and Hayward. They are both wildcards, Bell because of the injury and Hayward because he's a rookie, who could push the win total in either direction. It sounds like you are sold on Hayward. I don't expect much at all from him this season.
As far as the statistical analysis - those are not just arbitrary numbers - please take a look at my very first blog post - NBA Point Guards 2010 - Cumulative Rankings - to see how I came up with the rankings. In short I combined the rankings at each position for each player in five categories - PER, Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, WARP and Simple - and then combined those rankings numbers to get my final rankings.