Denver Nuggets - Early Season Returns

While facing daily speculation about trading Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 10-6 record.  They only have one bad loss, at Indiana.  "Bad" in this case is more a result of the ridiculous margin, 144-113, than the fact they lost the game.  They have also showed that they can beat the top teams.  They have wins over the Jazz, Lakers and Bulls at home, as well as a victory in Dallas. 

How does their performance measure up?  Let's take a look at the numbers.  But first, I predicted the Nuggets would finish the season with a 50-32 record.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.8 (17th) [107.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 2.6 [4.3 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.0 (5th) [106.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.6 (23rd) [102.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.0 (4th) [94.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Arron Afflalo
Offensive Rating: 119 (114 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 13.4 (10.8)

Carmelo Anthony
Offensive Rating: 111 (110)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 23.1 (22.2)

Chauncey Billups
Offensive Rating: 108 (120)
Defensive Rating: 110 (110)
PER: 14.5 (20.2)

Al Harrington
Offensive Rating: 103 (106)
Defensive Rating: 108 (111)
PER: 13.2 (16.8)

Nene
Offensive Rating: 125 (124)
Defensive Rating: 108 (105)
PER: 17.9 (18.9)

Ty Lawson
Offensive Rating: 110 (118)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 14.1 (16.5)

Shelden Williams
Offensive Rating: 108 (118)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 12.2 (14.1)

J.R. Smith
Offensive Rating: 111 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 16.1 (15.1)

Gary Forbes
Offensive Rating: 109 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 109
PER: 16.2

Melvin Ely
Offensive Rating: 125 (not in NBA last season)
Defensive Rating: 106
PER: 11.6

While the Nuggets offensive efficiency has slipped when compared to last season they still have the fourth best mark in the NBA.  The fact that their defensive efficiency is only slightly worse bodes well for Denver, who has been without the two players who had the best Defensive Ratings on the team last year, Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin.

Despite the daily rumors, Anthony has had a spectacular season so far.  His 23.1 PER puts him 11th in the NBA and is up from an excellent 22.2 in 2009/10.  Most impressively, he's pulling down two additional rebounds per game in 2010 despite the fact that he's averaging three less minutes per game.  That's because he's grabbing a career best 20.6% of the boards available to him on the defensive end.  That percentage is second among NBA small forwards who average more than 15 minutes per game.

Unfortunately for Denver, Billups has suffered a big drop in effectiveness.  His PER has fallen 5.7 points and his Offensive Rating has dropped 12 points per 100 possessions.  Both marks are 10 year lows.  His shooting percentage is way down to less than 37%.  His scoring, rebounds and assists averages are also down and his turnovers are up.

In his fourth year Afflalo continues to improve.  While his PER is not exactly spectacular, he is following up an excellent 2009/10 of 43.4% three-point shooting with 43.6% shooting from behind the arc this season.

Nene's PER is down a notch from 18.9 to 17.9 so far but there is nothing alarming in his statistics.  His steal rate has dropped a bit and he's down slightly on rebounds, which can be explained by Carmelo's hunger for the boards.

More disappointing for the Nuggets is the decrease in production year over year from Harrington and Lawson.  Granted, Harrington was not on the Denver roster last year, but when they signed him to a free agent deal I'm sure they didn't expect him to reach an eight year low in efficiency.  In Lawson's case the culprit is his shooting.  Otherwise, his assist rate is up and his turnover rate is down.  Obviously those are important statistics for a point guard.

After struggling last season, Smith seems to have found his game again.  Not only is he shooting a career best 40.9% from three-point range his rebound percentage is up and his turnover rate is down by almost 40%.

Beyond those key players, Denver has utilized Williams, Forbes and Ely in the frontcourt as they've waited for the return of Andersen and Martin.  Led by Anthony this team has performed as well as can be expected.  If he stays, and Billups and Harrington can raise their games up to their historical averages then the Nuggets may be able to make a surprise run toward the Western Conference Finals.

What have you seen that you've liked and disliked out of the Nuggets so far this season?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Denver Nuggets - Better or Worse

The Nuggets are coming off a difficult season.  They had a very respectable 53 wins but greatly missed their head coach George Karl after he took a leave of absence for cancer treatment.  Denver hung on to win the Northwest Division but then lost to the rival Jazz in six games in the first round of the playoffs.  Since then there have been nothing but rumors about the coming and going of Carmelo Anthony.  A few weeks ago a deal seemed to be all but done to send Carmelo to the Nets but somebody backed out as the final hour approached.  Now the Nuggets seem to be bathed in uncertainty as the new season approaches.  Even though there is a very high likelihood that the team we evaluate here will not be together throughout the season, let's take a shot at predicting the record anyway.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dherrera_96

Point Guard
2009 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)

The rotation at point guard will not change and that is definitely a good thing for the Nuggets.  Billups continued to defy age and play at a very high level.  Lawson had an excellent rookie year.  I expect the same high level of production from this position but with Lawson picking up a few more of Billups' minutes.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)

Afflalo gave the Nuggets what they wanted in a starter at off guard - a solid three point shooter who can play some defense.  Smith's efficiency suffered as his three point shooting percentage dropped last year.  He just took more shots to keep his scoring average up.  I think Denver got as much production as they could out of this position last season.  I'm calling for a small drop.  Net losses - 1.

Small Forward
2009 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)

What happens with Carmelo will be the biggest determining factor in the Nuggets season.  I can see him going out to prove a point early in the season and surpassing his past performance.  But, I can also see him getting frustrated with the whole situation and playing poorly.  I'm going to go with the former.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)
2010 - Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7), Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)

Harrington is not the upgrade at power forward that the Nuggets would like you to believe he is.  Karl recently said that he was hopeful that Martin would be back from his knee injury around January 1.  Denver will miss him dearly on the defensive end.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Center
2009 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)
2010 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)

Another stellar season was turned in by Nene.  His stats were solid and maybe most importantly he was able to start all 82 games.  It looks like Andersen will miss at least the first month of the season with a knee injury.  I think both players hit their ceiling production-wise in 2009-10, meaning there will be some drop off.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Overall
Until things are settled with Carmelo the Nuggets will be hard to read.  It will be to their advantage to make a move sooner than later, otherwise they will risk receiving nothing in return for a huge asset.  The addition of Harrington was the only significant move they made over the summer.  Sure he can space the floor with his three point shooting ability but ultimately I think his lack of defensive prowess will hurt this squad.  They will also suffer from the injuries to Martin and Andersen.

The Nuggets posted a 53-29 record in 2009-10.  As I've noted above, I've got them picking up one win at small forward, breaking even at point guard and losing one and a half at power forward and center and one at shooting guard.

In the final verdict the Nuggets are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict that they will have a 50-32 record in 2010-11.

How do you think the uncertainty will affect the Nuggets?  Does my record projection seem about right to you?  Let me know by posting a comment below.