How does their performance measure up? Let's take a look at the numbers. But first, I predicted the Nuggets would finish the season with a 50-32 record.
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| Photo source: dherrera_96 |
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.8 (17th) [107.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 2.6 [4.3 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.0 (5th) [106.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.6 (23rd) [102.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.0 (4th) [94.8 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Arron Afflalo
Offensive Rating: 119 (114 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 13.4 (10.8)
Carmelo Anthony
Offensive Rating: 111 (110)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 23.1 (22.2)
Chauncey Billups
Offensive Rating: 108 (120)
Defensive Rating: 110 (110)
PER: 14.5 (20.2)
Al Harrington
Offensive Rating: 103 (106)
Defensive Rating: 108 (111)
PER: 13.2 (16.8)
Nene
Offensive Rating: 125 (124)
Defensive Rating: 108 (105)
PER: 17.9 (18.9)
Ty Lawson
Offensive Rating: 110 (118)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 14.1 (16.5)
Shelden Williams
Offensive Rating: 108 (118)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 12.2 (14.1)
J.R. Smith
Offensive Rating: 111 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 16.1 (15.1)
Gary Forbes
Offensive Rating: 109 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 109
PER: 16.2
Melvin Ely
Offensive Rating: 125 (not in NBA last season)
Defensive Rating: 106
PER: 11.6
While the Nuggets offensive efficiency has slipped when compared to last season they still have the fourth best mark in the NBA. The fact that their defensive efficiency is only slightly worse bodes well for Denver, who has been without the two players who had the best Defensive Ratings on the team last year, Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin.
Despite the daily rumors, Anthony has had a spectacular season so far. His 23.1 PER puts him 11th in the NBA and is up from an excellent 22.2 in 2009/10. Most impressively, he's pulling down two additional rebounds per game in 2010 despite the fact that he's averaging three less minutes per game. That's because he's grabbing a career best 20.6% of the boards available to him on the defensive end. That percentage is second among NBA small forwards who average more than 15 minutes per game.
Unfortunately for Denver, Billups has suffered a big drop in effectiveness. His PER has fallen 5.7 points and his Offensive Rating has dropped 12 points per 100 possessions. Both marks are 10 year lows. His shooting percentage is way down to less than 37%. His scoring, rebounds and assists averages are also down and his turnovers are up.
In his fourth year Afflalo continues to improve. While his PER is not exactly spectacular, he is following up an excellent 2009/10 of 43.4% three-point shooting with 43.6% shooting from behind the arc this season.
Nene's PER is down a notch from 18.9 to 17.9 so far but there is nothing alarming in his statistics. His steal rate has dropped a bit and he's down slightly on rebounds, which can be explained by Carmelo's hunger for the boards.
More disappointing for the Nuggets is the decrease in production year over year from Harrington and Lawson. Granted, Harrington was not on the Denver roster last year, but when they signed him to a free agent deal I'm sure they didn't expect him to reach an eight year low in efficiency. In Lawson's case the culprit is his shooting. Otherwise, his assist rate is up and his turnover rate is down. Obviously those are important statistics for a point guard.
After struggling last season, Smith seems to have found his game again. Not only is he shooting a career best 40.9% from three-point range his rebound percentage is up and his turnover rate is down by almost 40%.
Beyond those key players, Denver has utilized Williams, Forbes and Ely in the frontcourt as they've waited for the return of Andersen and Martin. Led by Anthony this team has performed as well as can be expected. If he stays, and Billups and Harrington can raise their games up to their historical averages then the Nuggets may be able to make a surprise run toward the Western Conference Finals.
What have you seen that you've liked and disliked out of the Nuggets so far this season? Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.
nuggets could start jr smith, he is playing the best ball of his career he can start over affalo. afflalo can team with ty lawson coming off the bench. his play has been outstanding during this homestand and with his focus coming back look out. jr and melo could play like mj and pippen.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment Anonymous. J.R. is definitely a key to the success of this team. I think they like to bring him off the bench because of the offensive burst he gives the second team. But when playing to his potential he'll surely be in at the end of the game.
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