Denver Nuggets - Better or Worse

The Nuggets are coming off a difficult season.  They had a very respectable 53 wins but greatly missed their head coach George Karl after he took a leave of absence for cancer treatment.  Denver hung on to win the Northwest Division but then lost to the rival Jazz in six games in the first round of the playoffs.  Since then there have been nothing but rumors about the coming and going of Carmelo Anthony.  A few weeks ago a deal seemed to be all but done to send Carmelo to the Nets but somebody backed out as the final hour approached.  Now the Nuggets seem to be bathed in uncertainty as the new season approaches.  Even though there is a very high likelihood that the team we evaluate here will not be together throughout the season, let's take a shot at predicting the record anyway.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dherrera_96

Point Guard
2009 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)

The rotation at point guard will not change and that is definitely a good thing for the Nuggets.  Billups continued to defy age and play at a very high level.  Lawson had an excellent rookie year.  I expect the same high level of production from this position but with Lawson picking up a few more of Billups' minutes.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)

Afflalo gave the Nuggets what they wanted in a starter at off guard - a solid three point shooter who can play some defense.  Smith's efficiency suffered as his three point shooting percentage dropped last year.  He just took more shots to keep his scoring average up.  I think Denver got as much production as they could out of this position last season.  I'm calling for a small drop.  Net losses - 1.

Small Forward
2009 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)

What happens with Carmelo will be the biggest determining factor in the Nuggets season.  I can see him going out to prove a point early in the season and surpassing his past performance.  But, I can also see him getting frustrated with the whole situation and playing poorly.  I'm going to go with the former.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)
2010 - Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7), Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)

Harrington is not the upgrade at power forward that the Nuggets would like you to believe he is.  Karl recently said that he was hopeful that Martin would be back from his knee injury around January 1.  Denver will miss him dearly on the defensive end.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Center
2009 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)
2010 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)

Another stellar season was turned in by Nene.  His stats were solid and maybe most importantly he was able to start all 82 games.  It looks like Andersen will miss at least the first month of the season with a knee injury.  I think both players hit their ceiling production-wise in 2009-10, meaning there will be some drop off.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Overall
Until things are settled with Carmelo the Nuggets will be hard to read.  It will be to their advantage to make a move sooner than later, otherwise they will risk receiving nothing in return for a huge asset.  The addition of Harrington was the only significant move they made over the summer.  Sure he can space the floor with his three point shooting ability but ultimately I think his lack of defensive prowess will hurt this squad.  They will also suffer from the injuries to Martin and Andersen.

The Nuggets posted a 53-29 record in 2009-10.  As I've noted above, I've got them picking up one win at small forward, breaking even at point guard and losing one and a half at power forward and center and one at shooting guard.

In the final verdict the Nuggets are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict that they will have a 50-32 record in 2010-11.

How do you think the uncertainty will affect the Nuggets?  Does my record projection seem about right to you?  Let me know by posting a comment below.