What's Gone Wrong with the NBA's 0-3 Teams?

It's almost a full week into the NBA season.  There are five teams in the NBA that have gotten off to an 0-3 start - Charlotte Bobcats, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers.  While that is certainly not a death sentence, it's never a good idea to dig yourself a hole at the beginning of the season.  Each team has its own reasons for its slow start and different levels of hope for the future.

Phot source: lanchongzi

Charlotte Bobcats
How'd they get to 0-3?
101-86 at Dallas, 104-101 to Indiana at home and 98-88 at Milwaukee

What's gone wrong?
The Bobcats are 29th in the NBA in turnovers, averaging 18.3 per game.  That is especially bad because they play at the 29th slowest pace in the NBA.  Gerald Wallace is the biggest offender.  He's averaging five turnovers a game.  Charlotte is also allowing more than seven points more per game than they did last season.

Sound the Alarm - One Time
The only concerning loss of the three was the one to Indiana at home.  A big part of their success last year can be attributed to their ability to defend their home court.  They were 31-10 in Charlotte.  Still, D.J. Augustin has gotten off to a good start, as has Tyrus Thomas.  Those two will be the keys to the Bobcats' success this season.  Also, the last couple of playoff spots in the Eastern Conference will likely go to teams with sub-.500 records.

Detroit Pistons
How'd they get to 0-3?
101-98 at New Jersey, 105-104 to Oklahoma City at home and 101-91 at Chicago

What's gone wrong?
The Pistons cannot finish the game.  They are dead last in the NBA in 4th quarter scoring differential at -7.3.  They've also struggled to start the offense by taking the ball from the other team.  At 4.8%, their steal percentage is ranked 27th in the NBA.  Individually they are not getting good minutes from Richard Hamilton, Austin Daye or Tracy McGrady.

Sound the Alarm - Two Times
Detroit played well at home against OKC but the trend of blowing leads in the 4th quarter is a dangerous one.  Hamilton seems to have dropped even another level down and they are getting nothing from McGrady.  Like the Bobcats, the Pistons have the advantage of playing in the Eastern Conference.  They need to get right quickly and win some of the key games that lie in their November schedule.

Houston Rockets
How'd they get to 0-3?
112-110 at Lakers, 132-128 at Golden State and 107-94 to Denver at home

What's gone wrong?
The Rockets have been trying to work Yao back to health but he hasn't helped when he's been on the floor.  He was a team worst -19 against the Nuggets and worst among the starters at -6 against the Lakers.  They have also posted the NBA's worst defensive efficiency allowing 1.116 points per possession.

Sound the Alarm - Three Times
There is very little margin for error in the Western Conference.  Last season the eighth seed had 50 wins and it's very likely that you may need 50 wins to make the Western Conference playoffs again in 2010-11.  Houston has had some good individual play from Luis Scola and Kevin Martin so far.  But they will need a total team commitment to improving the defense if they are going to earn a playoff spot.

Los Angeles Clippers
How'd they get to 0-3?
98-88 to Portland at home, 109-91 at Golden State and 99-83 to Dallas at home

What's gone wrong?
It's the offense.  The Clippers are last in the NBA in offensive efficiency at .91 points per possession, last in points per game at 87.3 and 29th in scoring margin at -14.7.  This is largely a result of their last in the NBA field goal percentage of 37.7.  The Clippers are equal opportunity offenders.  The highest shooting percentage for a player taking more than four shots per game is 42. 

Sound the Alarm - Four Times
Playoffs was a word thrown around for the Clippers before the season started.  Three games in that is a pipe dream.  They have struggled severely to put the ball in the hoop.  Their next six games are home against San Antonio and Oklahoma City and then on the road at Denver, Utah, New Orleans and San Antonio.  They are staring 0-9 in the face.

Philadelphia 76ers
How'd they get to 0-3?
97-87 to Miami at home, 104-101 to Atlanta at home and 99-86 at Indiana

What's gone wrong?
For the Sixers it is the third quarter.  On average they are giving up 10 more points than they score in the third quarter.  This was especially damaging in what should be considered their most winnable game, at Indiana.  They came out of the locker room at half time tied at 51.  When the third quarter ended they were down by 12.  Individually they need Jrue Holiday to play better.  The second-year point guard is shooting less than 33% and barely exceeding his turnovers with assists.

Sound the Alarm - One Time
The next three games for Philadelphia are winnable so they could be at .500 in a week.  Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young are all playing good basketball.  If Holiday can pick his game up and the 76ers can find a way to improve their performance in the third quarter they can contend for an Eastern Conference playoff spot.

What are your observations on these five teams?  What would you prescribe to help them get more wins?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Houston Rockets - Better or Worse

Photo source: the_junes

The Rockets may have gotten more out of their talent than any other team in the NBA last season.  They found out in the summer of 2009 that they would likely be without Yao Ming for all 82 games.  They had issues with Tracy McGrady who they then somehow managed to package in a deal to get solid shooter Kevin Martin.  Through it all the players on the court battled every night and finished two games above .500 and ninth in the Western Conference.  Head coach Rick Adelman deserves a lot of credit for the performance.  Will he be able to get the same effort from this year's group with Yao back on the floor but playing limited minutes?  And will that be enough for Houston to get into the playoffs?  Let's examine the roster.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Aaron Brooks (#27 PG, Level 6), Kyle Lowry (#17 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Aaron Brooks (#27 PG, Level 6), Kyle Lowry (#17 PG, Level 4)

No change in the two deep at the point guard for Houston.  Brooks was outstanding in his third season.  Cutting down his turnovers will help him become even more effective.  Lowry was quite good as well, although his shooting percentage was subpar, especially from behind the arc.  I like a little improvement from Brooks in 2010-11.  Net wins - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kevin Martin (#12 SG, Level 4), Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Kevin Martin (#12 SG, Level 4), Courtney Lee (#42 SG, Level 7)

I'm counting Ariza as a shooting guard because he essentially started most of the season at that position before the trade for Martin.  Ariza shot poorly but was still productive because of his defense and ability to rebound and pass.  Martin can certainly light it up but his recent injury history is a concern.  Lee struggled last year in New Jersey but his performance should be improved in Houston.  I'm also going to factor in something close to a full season from Martin.  Net wins - 2 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Shane Battier (#29 SF, Level 7), Chase Budinger (#21 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Shane Battier (#29 SF, Level 7), Chase Budinger (#21 SF, Level 5)

A troubling trend has taken hold with Battier - his field-goal percentage has decreased in each of the last four seasons.  He's still a productive player, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Budinger get the majority of the playing time at the three in 2010-11.  Budinger was effective in limited minutes as a rookie, finishing eight spots above Battier in my small forward rankings.  Net wins - 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Luis Scola (#29 PF, Level 6), Jordan Hill (#45 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Luis Scola (#29 PF, Level 6), Patrick Patterson (Rookie)

Scola was solid in his third year in the NBA.  He's also been very dependable, having played in all 246 possible regular season games.  Patterson may be as ready as any NBA rookie not named John Wall to come right in and produce.  Still, I think Scola's production level reached the ceiling last season and that this position will be even.  Net wins - 0.

Center
2009 - Chuck Hayes (#44 C, Level 8), David Andersen (#52 C, Level 10)
2010 - Yao Ming (missed 2009-10 with injury), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)

Even though his playing time will be limited to 24 minutes per game and he will likely sit out one game during each of Houston's back-to-backs, Yao's return from injury is critical to the Rockets' potential for success.  Miller has lost a lot since his heyday but is still a good passer and as a savvy veteran can find ways to put points on the board.  Yao's impact will be muted by his limited playing time, but should still provide a boost.  Net wins - 3.

Overall
Playing small at so many positions last season, the Rockets struggled with rebounding, blocks and getting blocked.  That will change with Yao back in the lineup.  Ultimately the key to Houston's season will be health.  To reach their higher levels of possible production in 2010-11 they need Martin and Yao to stay healthy.  As long as they can do so, the Rockets should be able to take advantage of their depth and have a solid season.

The Rockets finished last season with a 42-40 record.  As I documented above, I have them picking up three wins at center, two and a half at shooting guard, one at point guard and half at small forward while staying even at power forward.

In the final verdict the Rockets are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project them to have a 49-33 record this season.

What are your thoughts on the Rockets?  Can Yao stay healthy?  What record do you expect them to have in 2010-11.  Let me know by posting a comment below.