Atlanta Hawks - Early Season Returns

The Hawks have increased their regular season win total in five straight seasons.  After winning 53 in 2009/10, it's going to be very difficult to extend that streak to six.  But at 8-4 they are doing well.  It's how they got there that's been somewhat strange.  They opened the season with six straight wins including four on the road.  They proceeded to lose their next four against good competition.  Since then they've won two against weaker opponents.

What do the statistics tell us?  Let's take a look.  But first, I picked the Hawks to finish the season at 51-31.

Photo source: hectorir

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.9 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.7 (20th) [106.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.7 [5.2 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.8 (12th) [101.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.5 (10th) [97.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (23rd) [90.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Joe Johnson
Offensive Rating: 108 (112 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 111 (109)
PER: 16.9 (19.3)

Josh Smith
Offensive Rating: 107 (109)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 21.4 (21.0)

Al Horford
Offensive Rating: 134 (121)
Defensive Rating: 106 (105)
PER: 26.3 (19.4)

Mike Bibby
Offensive Rating: 121 (113)
Defensive Rating: 111 (110)
PER: 14.0 (12.7)

Jamal Crawford
Offensive Rating: 111 (114)
Defensive Rating: 111 (110)
PER: 15.0 (18.4)

Marvin Williams
Offensive Rating: 112 (113)
Defensive Rating: 109 (107)
PER: 12.6 (13.0)

Zaza Pachulia
Offensive Rating: 123 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (104)
PER: 15.9 (13.1)

Jeff Teague
Offensive Rating: 106 (96)
Defensive Rating: 107 (106)
PER: 13.1 (11.0)

Josh Powell
Offensive Rating: 91 (89)
Defensive Rating: 109 (106)
PER: 8.4 (6.7)

Although down slightly from last season, the efficiency of the Hawks offense has been extremely impressive.  At 111.4 points per 100 possessions they rank fourth in the NBA.  The trouble is that defensively they are allowing an additional one point per 100 possessions over their 2009/10 season number.  As a result of those two marks, Atlanta's differential is down to 3.7 from 5.2.

Looking at individuals, the first thing that stands out is the leap that Horford has taken this season.  He's improved his PER by almost seven and his Offensive Rating is an off-the-charts 134.  The keys to his improved effectiveness are his stellar 63.7% shooting from the field (up from 55.1%) and his 82.9% free-throw shooting (up from 78.9).

Headed in the other direction is the $120 million man, Joe Johnson.  His PER is down 2.4 points and he actually has a negative three rating differential.  His three-point shooting percentage has dropped by more than 100 points.

Smith is maintaining the momentum of his big breakout last season.  His PER is up .4 from his spectacular 21.0 last season.

Bibby has also improved his PER, from 12.7 in 2009/10 to 14.0.  Maybe more important, he has boosted his differential to +10.  His field-goal percentage is up almost 70 points in part due to his excellence behind the arc, where he is shooting 43.1%.

While Crawford continues to demand action on his contract his effectiveness is falling.  He's following up a strong 2009/10 with an average season.  Crawford's three-point shooting is down almost 50 points and he's pulling fewer boards down as well.

Off the bench, Pachulia and Teague have improved.  But, if the Hawks are going to make a real run, they'll need Johnson, Crawford and another underperformer, Marvin Williams, to raise their level of play.

How would you rate Atlanta's season so far?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Atlanta Hawks - Better or Worse

Photo source: Zevotron

The Hawks took another step forward last season, increasing their win total from 47 to 53.  But they fell flat in the playoffs and were widely criticized.  It was the fifth regular season in a row in which they increased their number of wins over the previous season.  Will the streak continue?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Mike Bibby (#32 PG, Level 6), Jeff Teague (#56 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Mike Bibby (#32 PG, Level 6), Jeff Teague (#56 PG, Level 10)

The Hawks got average play at best at the point guard position last year but did nothing to change it.  They will be relying on the ascension of Teague for improvement.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Joe Johnson (#7 PG, Level 3), Jamal Crawford (#10 PG, Level 3)
2010 - Joe Johnson (#7 PG, Level 3), Jamal Crawford (#10 PG, Level 3)

The biggest offseason move by the Hawks has been to retain Johnson by signing him to a huge contract.  Their quality at the shooting guard position is definitely a strength.

Small Forward
2009 - Marvin Williams (#22 SF, Level 5), Maurice Evans (#37 SF, Level 8)
2010 - Marvin Williams (#22 SF, Level 5), Maurice Evans (#37 SF, Level 8)

Williams has not yet developed into the player the Hawks thought he would become when they selected him with the second pick in the draft.  Heading into his sixth year, it's hard to believe he'll get any better.

Power Forward
2009 - Josh Smith (#4 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Josh Smith (#4 PF, Level 2)

Smith was spectacular last season finishing fourth in my cumulative rankings for power forwards, just behind Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki.

Center
2009 - Al Horford (#5 C, Level 2), Zaza Pachulia (#38 C, Level 8)
2010 - Al Horford (#5 C, Level 2), Zaza Pachulia (#38 C, Level 8)

Horford has steadily improved every year since entering the NBA.  He was excellent last season.  Pachulia is a serviceable backup.

Overall
The Hawks head into the 2010-2011 season with basically the same team.  Unless first round pick Jordan Crawford can sneak his way in, the rotation will not change.  Atlanta needs Teague to assert himself in his second year and start taking playing time away from Bibby.  Because they made no changes at the rotation level I have to base my projections on development and regression.  At point guard I think Bibby's continued fall will be equaled out by Teague's gain.  I think they'll lose a game at shooting guard and small forward, stay even at power forward and gain a half game at center.

In the final verdict the Hawks are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 51-31.