NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA center rankings - here are my observations on the rankings:

• I mentioned it briefly in my initial post - I'm surprised at how close Dwight Howard and Al Horford are at the top of the rankings.  Horford trails Howard by only two total points.
• Howard is first in four of the five categories.  The only exception is the Offensive Rating category in which he's 22nd. 
• Tyson Chandler leads that Offensive Rating category and is a very impressive third.  He and Tim Duncan, who was second in 2009-10, are the second level of centers.
• Andrew Bynum, Nene and Joakim Noah represent the third level.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Chandler, Jeff Foster and JaVale McGee.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson and David Lee.
• Making the biggest jumps from the final 2009-10 rankings are DeAndre Jordan (up 36), Kwame Brown (up 32) and Chandler (up 31).
• Jordan's biggest leap is in the Simple Rating where he was a -7.3 last season but is a 1.4 midway through this season.  He's also already doubled his Estimated Wins Added.
• Chandler has played a big role in Dallas's defensive improvement.  His PER has skyrocketed from 12.58 in 2009-10 to 19.06 so far in 2010-11.  He's already added an estimated 5.3 wins compared to his 1.1 Estimated Wins Added last season.
• Falling the most from the 2009-10 rankings are Jermaine O'Neal (down 35), Brendan Haywood (down 33) and Louis Amundson (down 31).
• Due in large part to his third best Defensive Rating, Omer Asik is the highest ranked rookie.
• The two teams getting the least production from the center position are Phoenix and Cleveland.  The Suns have Channing Frye at 42 and Robin Lopez at 43.  The Cavs have Ryan Hollins at 49.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

The top of the mid-season NBA center rankings are surprisingly close - at least to me. Dwight Howard finished solidly in first in the 2009-10 NBA center rankings. But Al Horford is very close to Howard at mid-season.

For additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season take a look at my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through February 7 here are my center rankings:

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O. Rat Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final . Dwight Howard, ORL 25.68 1 12.8 1 11.1 1 111 22 95 1 26 1 . Al Horford, ATL 22.45 2 9.7 2 8.2 3 122 5 103 16 28 2 . Tyson Chandler, DAL 19.06 7 5.3 7 4.6 10 134 1 101 13 38 3 . Tim Duncan, SA 21.5 3 7.6 3 8.7 2 109 27 99 7 42 4 . Andrew Bynum, LAL 20.61 5 2.9 16 6.5 4 122 5 104 20 50 5 . Nene, DEN 21.45 4 7.3 4 6 6 128 2 107 35 51 6 . Joakim Noah, CHI 19.54 6 3.9 14 0 22 115 12 96 2 56 7 . Emeka Okafor, NO 16.65 18 4.8 10 3.5 13 113 16 100 9 66 8 . Shaquille O'Neal, BOS 17.31 13 2.5 19 5.2 8 111 22 98 5 67 9 . Andrew Bogut, MIL 17.86 10 5.1 8 6.1 5 101 43 98 5 71 10 . Jeff Foster, IND 16.25 20 1.3 26 5.6 7 118 9 100 9 71 11 . Marc Gasol, MEM 16.7 17 4.9 9 5 9 112 19 104 20 74 12 . JaVale McGee, WSH 17.58 12 4.2 13 4.6 10 112 19 105 30 84 13 . Marcin Gortat, PHX 16.72 16 2.7 18 -3.5 37 117 10 103 16 97 14 . Brook Lopez, NJ 18.74 8 6.9 5 4.6 10 106 33 109 46 102 15 . Brad Miller, HOU 17.59 11 2.3 21 0.5 19 120 7 109 46 104 16 . DeAndre Jordan, LAC 14.68 24 2.5 19 1.4 17 114 15 106 32 107 17 . Ronny Turiaf, NY 14.33 25 1.4 23 1.7 15 127 3 108 42 108 18 . Al Jefferson, UTAH 18.32 9 6.7 6 -3.2 35 109 27 107 35 112 19 . Chuck Hayes, HOU 16.14 21 2.9 16 -2.5 30 124 4 108 42 113 20 . Zydrunas Ilgauskas, MIA 13.09 32 1 30 0.5 19 108 29 100 9 119 21 . Roy Hibbert, IND 15.52 22 3 15 0 22 97 47 102 15 121 22 . Kurt Thomas, CHI 11.26 41 0.2 40 0 22 112 19 97 3 125 23 . David Lee, GS 17 14 4.4 12 1.6 16 108 29 111 56 127 24 . Nazr Mohammed, CHA 16.99 15 2.2 22 -3.3 36 102 39 104 20 132 25 . Kwame Brown, CHA 13.98 27 1.3 26 -2.7 33 115 12 107 35 133 26 . Anthony Tolliver, MIN 13.27 30 0.8 33 2.7 14 116 11 111 56 144 27 . Marreese Speights, PHI 14.88 23 1.1 28 -1 26 104 38 105 30 145 28 . Chris Andersen, DEN 14.03 26 0.5 38 -3.6 38 115 12 106 32 146 29 . Jason Thompson, SAC 13.96 28 1.4 23 -0.4 25 106 33 108 42 151 30 . Samuel Dalembert, SAC 12.69 35 0.9 31 0.4 21 96 50 104 20 157 31 . Andris Biedrins, GS 12.9 34 1.1 28 -5.2 44 113 16 107 35 157 32 . Andrea Bargnani, TOR 16.34 19 4.5 11 -2.6 31 102 39 113 60 160 33 . Omer Asik, CHI 10.69 43 0 42 -2.8 34 101 43 97 3 165 34 . Ben Wallace, DET 12.48 36 0.9 31 -5.2 44 102 39 104 20 170 35 . Nenad Krstic, OKC 12.37 37 0.8 33 -2.4 28 110 25 110 53 176 36 . Darko Milicic, MIN 13.14 31 1.4 23 -2.6 31 92 57 107 35 177 37 . Semih Erden, BOS 10.74 42 0 42 -12.5 58 108 29 99 7 178 38 . Trevor Booker, WSH 13 33 0.6 37 -4.6 41 110 25 109 46 182 39 . Zaza Pachulia, ATL 10.46 44 0 42 -5 43 105 36 104 20 185 40 . Joel Anthony, MIA 7.55 56 -1.4 61 -6 47 119 8 103 16 188 41 . Channing Frye, PHX 11.66 38 0.8 33 -4.7 42 106 33 109 46 192 42 . Robin Lopez, PHX 13.34 29 0.8 33 -4.1 39 107 32 112 59 192 43 . Erick Dampier, MIA 7.49 57 -0.5 55 -2.4 28 100 45 101 13 198 44 . Spencer Hawes, PHI 11.58 39 0.5 38 -6.3 48 93 55 104 20 200 45 . Brendan Haywood, DAL 10.14 47 -0.2 48 -9 55 102 39 103 16 205 46 . Solomon Jones, IND 9.59 50 -0.2 48 -7.5 50 98 46 104 20 214 47 . Francisco Elson, UTAH 10.07 48 -0.1 46 -4.1 39 105 36 109 46 215 48 . Ryan Hollins, CLE 11.46 40 0.2 40 -8.3 53 111 22 113 60 215 49 . Jermaine O'Neal, BOS 9.09 53 -0.2 48 -9.5 56 95 51 100 9 217 50 . Melvin Ely, DEN 8.07 54 -0.4 54 -5.2 44 113 16 110 53 221 51 . Johan Petro, NJ 9.61 49 -0.2 48 -8.9 54 95 51 104 20 222 52 . Jason Collins, ATL 5.39 60 -1.1 60 -2 27 97 47 107 35 229 53 . Kyrylo Fesenko, UTAH 5.72 59 -0.8 58 0.9 18 89 61 109 46 242 54 . Dan Gadzuric, GS 10.33 45 0 42 -10.6 57 94 53 109 46 243 55 . Hilton Armstrong, WSH 7.96 55 -0.5 55 -7.5 50 93 55 106 32 247 56 . Nikola Pekovic, MIN 10.15 46 -0.1 46 -8.2 52 97 47 111 56 247 57 . Josh Powell, ATL 9.51 51 -0.3 53 -13.9 60 94 53 108 42 259 58 . Louis Amundson, GS 9.46 52 -0.2 48 -6.5 49 92 57 110 53 259 59 . Hasheem Thabeet, MEM 4.84 61 -1 59 -18.5 61 91 59 104 20 260 60 . Timofey Mozgov, NY 7.42 58 -0.5 55 -13.5 59 91 59 107 35 266 61

In the next couple of days I'll follow up with my observations.  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Atlanta Hawks - Early Season Returns

The Hawks have increased their regular season win total in five straight seasons.  After winning 53 in 2009/10, it's going to be very difficult to extend that streak to six.  But at 8-4 they are doing well.  It's how they got there that's been somewhat strange.  They opened the season with six straight wins including four on the road.  They proceeded to lose their next four against good competition.  Since then they've won two against weaker opponents.

What do the statistics tell us?  Let's take a look.  But first, I picked the Hawks to finish the season at 51-31.

Photo source: hectorir

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.9 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.7 (20th) [106.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.7 [5.2 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.8 (12th) [101.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.5 (10th) [97.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (23rd) [90.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Joe Johnson
Offensive Rating: 108 (112 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 111 (109)
PER: 16.9 (19.3)

Josh Smith
Offensive Rating: 107 (109)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 21.4 (21.0)

Al Horford
Offensive Rating: 134 (121)
Defensive Rating: 106 (105)
PER: 26.3 (19.4)

Mike Bibby
Offensive Rating: 121 (113)
Defensive Rating: 111 (110)
PER: 14.0 (12.7)

Jamal Crawford
Offensive Rating: 111 (114)
Defensive Rating: 111 (110)
PER: 15.0 (18.4)

Marvin Williams
Offensive Rating: 112 (113)
Defensive Rating: 109 (107)
PER: 12.6 (13.0)

Zaza Pachulia
Offensive Rating: 123 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (104)
PER: 15.9 (13.1)

Jeff Teague
Offensive Rating: 106 (96)
Defensive Rating: 107 (106)
PER: 13.1 (11.0)

Josh Powell
Offensive Rating: 91 (89)
Defensive Rating: 109 (106)
PER: 8.4 (6.7)

Although down slightly from last season, the efficiency of the Hawks offense has been extremely impressive.  At 111.4 points per 100 possessions they rank fourth in the NBA.  The trouble is that defensively they are allowing an additional one point per 100 possessions over their 2009/10 season number.  As a result of those two marks, Atlanta's differential is down to 3.7 from 5.2.

Looking at individuals, the first thing that stands out is the leap that Horford has taken this season.  He's improved his PER by almost seven and his Offensive Rating is an off-the-charts 134.  The keys to his improved effectiveness are his stellar 63.7% shooting from the field (up from 55.1%) and his 82.9% free-throw shooting (up from 78.9).

Headed in the other direction is the $120 million man, Joe Johnson.  His PER is down 2.4 points and he actually has a negative three rating differential.  His three-point shooting percentage has dropped by more than 100 points.

Smith is maintaining the momentum of his big breakout last season.  His PER is up .4 from his spectacular 21.0 last season.

Bibby has also improved his PER, from 12.7 in 2009/10 to 14.0.  Maybe more important, he has boosted his differential to +10.  His field-goal percentage is up almost 70 points in part due to his excellence behind the arc, where he is shooting 43.1%.

While Crawford continues to demand action on his contract his effectiveness is falling.  He's following up a strong 2009/10 with an average season.  Crawford's three-point shooting is down almost 50 points and he's pulling fewer boards down as well.

Off the bench, Pachulia and Teague have improved.  But, if the Hawks are going to make a real run, they'll need Johnson, Crawford and another underperformer, Marvin Williams, to raise their level of play.

How would you rate Atlanta's season so far?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Atlanta Hawks - Better or Worse

Photo source: Zevotron

The Hawks took another step forward last season, increasing their win total from 47 to 53.  But they fell flat in the playoffs and were widely criticized.  It was the fifth regular season in a row in which they increased their number of wins over the previous season.  Will the streak continue?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Mike Bibby (#32 PG, Level 6), Jeff Teague (#56 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Mike Bibby (#32 PG, Level 6), Jeff Teague (#56 PG, Level 10)

The Hawks got average play at best at the point guard position last year but did nothing to change it.  They will be relying on the ascension of Teague for improvement.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Joe Johnson (#7 PG, Level 3), Jamal Crawford (#10 PG, Level 3)
2010 - Joe Johnson (#7 PG, Level 3), Jamal Crawford (#10 PG, Level 3)

The biggest offseason move by the Hawks has been to retain Johnson by signing him to a huge contract.  Their quality at the shooting guard position is definitely a strength.

Small Forward
2009 - Marvin Williams (#22 SF, Level 5), Maurice Evans (#37 SF, Level 8)
2010 - Marvin Williams (#22 SF, Level 5), Maurice Evans (#37 SF, Level 8)

Williams has not yet developed into the player the Hawks thought he would become when they selected him with the second pick in the draft.  Heading into his sixth year, it's hard to believe he'll get any better.

Power Forward
2009 - Josh Smith (#4 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Josh Smith (#4 PF, Level 2)

Smith was spectacular last season finishing fourth in my cumulative rankings for power forwards, just behind Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki.

Center
2009 - Al Horford (#5 C, Level 2), Zaza Pachulia (#38 C, Level 8)
2010 - Al Horford (#5 C, Level 2), Zaza Pachulia (#38 C, Level 8)

Horford has steadily improved every year since entering the NBA.  He was excellent last season.  Pachulia is a serviceable backup.

Overall
The Hawks head into the 2010-2011 season with basically the same team.  Unless first round pick Jordan Crawford can sneak his way in, the rotation will not change.  Atlanta needs Teague to assert himself in his second year and start taking playing time away from Bibby.  Because they made no changes at the rotation level I have to base my projections on development and regression.  At point guard I think Bibby's continued fall will be equaled out by Teague's gain.  I think they'll lose a game at shooting guard and small forward, stay even at power forward and gain a half game at center.

In the final verdict the Hawks are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 51-31.