Minnesota Timberwolves - Early Season Returns

Little is expected from the Timberwolves this NBA season, but the nice thing is they've shown some reasons for hope.  It's not necessarily reflected in their 4-12 record, but in the mostly consistent impact of Kevin Love and Michael Beasley and in the recent flashes of competency by Darko Milicic.  Who else is exceeding or missing expectations?  Let's take a look at some advanced statistics.

But first, I predicted the Timberwolves would put up a 16-66 record.

Photo source: k1k0.com

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 101.7 (29th in the NBA) [101.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 110.8 (28th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -9.1 [-9.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [98.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 110.6 (30th) [107.8 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 99.1 (1st) [96.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Kevin Love
Offensive Rating: 113 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (109)
PER: 22.4 (20.7)

Michael Beasley
Offensive Rating: 100 (101)
Defensive Rating: 111 (103)
PER: 16.9 (16.1)

Wesley Johnson
Offensive Rating: 105 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 9.8

Darko Milicic
Offensive Rating: 90 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 12.5 (12.8)

Sebastian Telfair
Offensive Rating: 101 (98)
Defensive Rating: 115 (111)
PER: 10.4 (10.3)

Corey Brewer
Offensive Rating: 98 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (111)
PER: 12.8 (12.1)

Anthony Tolliver
Offensive Rating: 122 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (112)
PER: 14.3 (13.6)

Luke Ridnour
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 113 (106)
PER: 13.7 (17.7)

Wayne Ellington
Offensive Rating: 85 (101)
Defensive Rating: 114 (115)
PER: 5.3 (9.6)

Nikola Pekovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 8.7

After playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA in the 2009/10 season (96.1 possessions per game), Minnesota has sped up the game even more to play at the fastest pace (99.1) in the league through their first 16 games.  At this point it doesn't seem to be helping them very much.  While they've improved their defensive efficiency ever so slighly, their offensive efficiency is identical to last season.  The quicker pace does make them a little more fun for fans to watch.

Love has already posted some ridiculous stat lines.  His 31-point 31-rebound effort against the Knicks was phenomenal.  On Wednesday night he put up 32 and 22 against the Spurs.  He was a very productive player last year, although mostly under the radar, so his PER has not jumped dramatically.  But, it's very important to note that he is the 17th best player in the NBA right now by PER.

While Beasley's PER has improved slightly, it is somewhat alarming what he's done with his Defensive Rating.  It's fallen from a respectable 103 last season to 110 in 2010.  That can be attributed in part to pace.  Consider the Miami Heat team he was a member of in 2009/10 played at a pace of 89.6 possessions per game, nearly 10 fewer than the Timberwolves.  To his credit, he has raised his shooting percentages nicely, from 45.0 to 47.6 on twos and from 27.5 to 45.5 behind the arc.

No player in the rest of the rotation is producing at the NBA average PER of 15.0.  Free agent signee Tolliver is the closest at 14.3 in less than 20 minutes a game. 

Ridnour recently returned from a hamstring injury.  He's been decent but his PER has fallen from 17.7 last season to 13.7 so far in 2010.  However, he is shooting an impressive 40% from three-point range.  Telfair played the majority of the minutes at the point with Ridnour out.  Based on past performance, his production level is right about what should be expected. 

Besides Beasley, the Timberwolves are struggling to get production from their wings.  Brewer continues to improve at a snail's pace.  To the positive, his Defensive Rating is better by five points per 100 possessions.  Shooting has never been his strength but he's been particularly awful this season.  He's shooting a career worst 35.8%.  The rookie from Syracuse, Johnson, is also struggling with his shooting.

Clearly Minnesota will not be contending for the Western Conference playoffs, nobody expected that to happen.  But, to be happy about their progress they'll want to see some considerable growth in the players that they want to build their future around.  Right now there are just not enough of those types of players.  Love and Beasley are looking good.  Beyond that the Timberwolves need more consistent production from the other youngsters like Johnson and Brewer, and Johnny Flynn when he returns from injury.

What are your observations about the Timberwolves so far in this young season?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Better or Worse

For all the attention the Miami Heat got for making huge moves toward becoming a dynasty, the Timberwolves got nearly the same amount for making moves that seem to be aiming them in the exact opposite direction.  Minnesota has been miserable the last three years, putting up a cumulative record of 61-185.  Their obsession with point guards at the 2009 NBA draft transitioned into an obsession with small forwards at the 2010 NBA draft.  Then they traded away their most talented offensive player (Al Jefferson) for a whole lot of nothing.  Will the Timberwolves be as bad as most everybody expects this upcoming season?  Let's take a look at the key players in the rotation.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: jmagnusphoto

Point Guard
2009 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Luke Ridnour (#8 PG, Level 2)

Unfortunately, Flynn did not have a good rookie season and probably worse, he is mismatched for the triangle offense of coach Kurt Rambis.  Ridnour had a shockingly productive year in Milwaukee.  Ridnour will start while Flynn is injured at the beginning of the season.  I would not be surprised to see Ridnour put the clamps on the starting job.  There is an improvement here, but I don't think there's any chance Ridnour plays to the same level he did last season.  Net wins - 2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Wayne Ellington (#71 SG, Below level)
2010 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7)

Minnesota got really poor production from the shooting guard position in 2009-10.  Brewer is a good defender and a decent three-point shooter, but little more.  The addition of Webster should help here, especially with his three-point shooting prowess.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Damien Wilkins (#45 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Wesley Johnson (Rookie)

By now you are probably seeing a trend in the Timberwolves 2009-10 lineup - sub-par performance.  If Beasley comes anywhere close to reaching the potential that had NBA GMs considering him a top two pick then Minnesota GM David Kahn should be arrested for first degree larceny for getting him for a second round draft pick.  I'd love to say that I think that Wesley Johnson will be a top level pro, but I just don't think he'll be more than an athletic role player.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4), Anthony Tolliver (#39 PF, Level 8)

Love was highly effective in limited minutes.  Very impressively, he averaged 11 rebounds in less than 29 minutes per game.  Tolliver was pretty good with Golden State last season.  Still, the loss of Jefferson will hurt at the four.  Net losses - 2.

Center
2009 - Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level), Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9)
2010 - Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9), Nikola Pekovic (Rookie)

Not sure what it was, but something the Timberwolves saw in Milicic encouraged them enough to sign him to a long-term contract.  Pekovic is a 24-year old rookie from Serbia.  I'm going to drop the T-Wolves down a couple wins here too because of the loss of Jefferson.  Net losses - 2.

Overall
The addition of Ridnour, Webster and Beasley should help the Timberwolves perform better on the court even if it doesn't mean a lot more wins.  They were horrible defensively last season and I don't think that any of those three will make a big difference on that end of the floor.  It also doesn't help Minnesota that they play in a division with four likely playoff teams. 

The Timberwolves were 15-67 in 2009-10.  As I've noted above I have them picking up two wins at point guard and one and a half at shooting guard and small forward while losing two at power forward and center.

In the final verdict the Timberwolves are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project them to put up a 16-66 record in 2010-11.

How do you think Minnesota will be this season?  Do you think they'll do better or worse than I predict?  Let me know by posting a comment below.