NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

I posted my mid-season NBA power forward rankings earlier in the week - here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: bridgetds

• Pau Gasol continues to stay on top of the power forward rankings.  He was first in my final power forward rankings for the 2009-10 season as well.  However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have closed the gap.  Gasol finished 25 points ahead of Garnett and 26 points ahead of Nowitzki in 09-10.  Through mid-season 10-11 he's only 14 ahead of Nowitzki and 16 ahead of Garnett.
• Gasol is in first despite not leading any single category.  Kevin Love has the best PER and Estimated Wins Added.  Nowitzki has the best Simple Rating.  Garnett has the best Defensive Rating.  Oddly, Matt Bonner leads in Offensive Rating.
• There's a large third level with Love, David West, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer all within seven points of each other.
• Ryan Anderson presents an interesting case.  I don't think anyone really believes he's the fourth best power forward in the NBA.  However, he's in the top 10 in all categories except for Estimated Wins Added.  That raises the key point with Anderson - with an average of less than 20 minutes per game his playing time is well below that of everybody in the top 15.
• The biggest positive surprises to me, beyond Anderson, are David West, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Kris Humphries.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Josh Smith, Jeff Green and Al Harrington.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are Thaddeus Young (up 41), Kris Humphries (up 31) and Elton Brand (up 26).
• Young has boosted his PER from 14.08 to 17.96, his Simple Rating from -1.8 to 3.7, his Offensive Rating from 102 to 113 and his Defensive Rating from 111 to 105.
• Those who've fallen the most are Nick Collison (down 33), Dante Cunningham (down 30) and Shelden Williams (down 30).
• Blake Griffin is the highest rated rookie at 11th.  Greg Monroe and Ed Davis, who are tied for 41st, are the next rookies in the rankings.
• The two teams getting the least production from the power forward position are the Wizards and Nuggets.  Washington has Rashard Lewis at 46, Andray Blatche at 55 and Yi Jianlian at 72.  Denver has Kenyon Martin at 51, Al Harrington at 63 and Shelden Williams at 64.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

Through the first half of the 2010-11 NBA season Pau Gasol is the leader in production among power forwards. The top three, with Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett joining Gasol, are the same top three from the 2009-10 season. But, the order has changed and the gaps have changed.

Gasol finished first in the 2009-10 NBA power forward rankings by a wide margin.  Garnett was second and Nowitzki third.

To see the additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season check out my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through January 31 here are the power forward rankings: 

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D Rat. Rank Totals Final . Pau Gasol, LAL 23.43 4 10.4 2 12.1 2 122 7 103 20 35 1 . Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 23.55 2 7.7 7 13.6 1 115 15 104 24 49 2 . Kevin Garnett, BOS 21.66 9 5.8 14 10.9 3 112 24 94 1 51 3 . Ryan Anderson, ORL 21.9 8 2.8 26 10.1 4 124 4 101 9 51 3 . Kevin Love, MIN 24.93 1 11.5 1 8.9 5 124 4 108 51 62 5 . David West, NO 20.98 10 7.7 7 7.6 9 111 28 101 9 63 6 . Chris Bosh, MIA 20.03 14 6.3 11 8.6 6 114 16 102 16 63 6 . Lamar Odom, LAL 20.51 11 7.1 9 6 13 122 7 104 24 64 8 . Zach Randolph, MEM 22.21 6 8.6 5 7.6 9 112 24 104 24 68 9 . Carlos Boozer, CHI 22.17 7 4.9 16 7.2 11 109 33 97 2 69 10 . Blake Griffin, LAC 22.91 5 9.8 4 8 8 112 24 107 45 86 11 . LaMarcus Aldridge, POR 20.34 12 8.1 6 8.4 7 110 29 106 35 89 12 . Elton Brand, PHI 18.6 18 5.5 15 2.2 25 114 16 103 20 94 13 . Amare Stoudemire, NY 23.55 2 10.2 3 5.2 15 109 33 107 45 98 14 . Paul Millsap, UTAH 20.28 13 6.8 10 1.1 28 114 16 106 35 102 15 . Thaddeus Young, PHI 17.96 20 4.2 17 3.7 18 113 21 105 29 105 16 . Josh Smith, ATL 18.82 17 6.1 13 6 13 102 59 100 7 109 17 . Kris Humphries, NJ 17.85 22 3.9 19 1.1 28 114 16 104 24 109 17 . Brandon Bass, ORL 16.91 24 3.1 24 2.5 22 113 21 103 20 111 19 . Tyrus Thomas, CHA 19.73 15 3 25 6.2 12 103 53 100 7 112 20 . Amir Johnson, TOR 18.1 19 4 18 3.9 17 125 2 110 62 118 21 . Serge Ibaka, OKC 17.93 21 3.8 20 -0.5 37 122 7 106 35 120 22 . Marcus Camby, POR 16.27 28 2.7 28 1.9 26 106 43 99 5 130 23 . Luis Scola, HOU 19.31 16 6.3 11 3.6 19 108 39 109 56 141 24 . Matt Bonner, SA 14.05 45 1 46 2.4 23 130 1 106 35 150 25 . Anderson Varejao, CLE 15.23 37 1.8 34 4.4 16 113 21 108 51 159 26 . Ersan Ilyasova, MIL 14.27 44 1.5 38 2.3 24 105 50 101 9 165 27 . DeJuan Blair, SA 16.42 27 2.8 26 -5.9 61 104 51 99 5 170 28 . Chris Wilcox, DET 16.13 29 0.9 49 1.8 27 114 16 108 51 172 29 . Danilo Gallinari, NY 15.56 34 3.3 23 -1.2 42 125 2 112 71 172 29 . Josh McRoberts, IND 14.78 40 1.2 43 -1.8 47 110 29 102 16 175 31 . Tyler Hansbrough, IND 15.96 31 1.1 44 -1.2 42 109 33 105 29 179 32 . Hakim Warrick, PHX 17.02 23 2.3 30 -1 41 116 14 112 71 179 32 . Darrell Arthur, MEM 15.41 36 1.8 34 -2.1 50 109 33 105 29 182 34 . Craig Smith, LAC 15.46 35 0.7 50 0.3 32 117 12 110 62 191 35 . Charlie Villanueva, DET 15.97 30 2.5 29 -0.6 38 108 39 109 56 192 36 . Taj Gibson, CHI 13.48 49 1.4 40 -1.3 44 100 64 97 2 199 37 . Drew Gooden, MIL 15.88 32 1.3 42 -4.3 57 102 59 101 9 199 37 . Jon Brockman, MIL 9.45 70 -0.2 67 0.6 30 117 12 103 20 199 37 . Antawn Jamison, CLE 16.81 25 3.6 22 0.6 30 103 53 111 69 199 37 . Greg Monroe, DET 14.62 41 1.6 37 -3.5 54 112 24 107 45 201 41 . Ed Davis, TOR 15.68 33 1.4 40 -6 62 124 4 110 62 201 41 . Udonis Haslem, MIA 12.88 53 0.2 61 -2.4 51 110 29 101 9 203 43 . Joey Dorsey, TOR 14.58 42 0.6 53 -0.2 34 106 43 106 35 207 44 . Carl Landry, SAC 15.2 38 2.3 30 -1.4 45 109 33 110 62 208 45 . Glen Davis, BOS 13.13 50 1.1 44 -2 49 102 59 101 9 211 46 . Rashard Lewis, WAS 12.85 54 1 46 0 33 106 43 106 35 211 46 . Michael Beasley, MIN 16.73 26 3.7 21 -0.7 40 103 53 112 71 211 46 . Boris Diaw, CHA 13.67 48 1.7 36 -0.2 34 106 43 108 51 212 49 . Tiago Splitter, SA 13.72 47 0.6 53 -7 68 109 33 102 16 217 50 . Kenyon Martin, DEN 12.61 60 0.2 61 3.1 20 106 43 106 35 219 51 . Derrick Favors, NJ 13.78 46 1 46 -1.8 47 110 29 108 51 219 51 . Derrick Brown, CHA 12.42 62 0.4 56 2.7 21 106 43 107 45 227 53 . DeMarcus Cousins, SAC 14.86 39 2 32 -5.6 59 95 69 105 29 228 54 . Andray Blatche, WSH 14.4 43 2 32 -1.4 45 95 69 107 45 234 55 . Antonio McDyess, SA 12.52 61 0.4 56 -4.1 56 103 53 101 9 235 56 . Brian Cook, LAC 13.08 51 0.2 61 -0.4 36 107 42 107 45 235 56 . Reggie Evans, TOR 12.99 52 0.3 58 -4 55 106 43 105 29 237 58 . Nick Collison, OKC 10.77 67 -0.3 69 -0.6 38 118 11 109 56 241 59 . Brian Cardinal, DAL 10.1 69 -0.2 67 -8.7 72 120 10 105 29 247 60 . Larry Sanders, MIL 12.68 59 0.3 58 -4.6 58 94 72 98 4 251 61 . Jeff Green, OKC 12.8 56 1.5 38 -6.2 64 108 39 110 62 259 62 . Al Harrington, DEN 12.82 55 0.7 50 -3.3 53 103 53 109 56 267 63 . Shelden Williams, DEN 12.22 63 0.2 61 -6 62 104 51 106 35 272 64 . Jason Smith, NO 10.51 68 -0.4 70 -2.8 52 96 67 102 16 273 65 . Andres Nocioni, PHI 11.22 65 0.2 61 -6.8 66 102 59 106 35 286 66 . J.J. Hickson, CLE 12.73 57 0.7 50 -5.8 60 90 73 109 56 296 67 . Gary Forbes, DEN 12.73 57 0.5 55 -8.6 71 103 53 110 62 298 68 . Juwan Howard, MIA 7.48 73 -0.8 71 -9.3 74 98 65 104 24 307 69 . Dante Cunningham, POR 9.08 71 -0.8 71 -8.3 69 98 65 106 35 311 70 . Jordan Hill, HOU 11.49 64 0.3 58 -8.3 69 102 59 110 62 312 71 . Yi Jianlian, WSH 11.13 66 -0.1 66 -6.6 65 95 69 109 56 322 72 . Jason Maxiell, DET 8.24 72 -0.9 73 -9.2 73 96 67 111 69 354 73 . Jawad Williams, CLE 4.79 74 -1.2 74 -6.8 66 81 74 114 74 362 74

I'll be following up in the next couple of days with my observations on the rankings.  Feel free to post your thoughts below in the comments section.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Early Season Returns

Little is expected from the Timberwolves this NBA season, but the nice thing is they've shown some reasons for hope.  It's not necessarily reflected in their 4-12 record, but in the mostly consistent impact of Kevin Love and Michael Beasley and in the recent flashes of competency by Darko Milicic.  Who else is exceeding or missing expectations?  Let's take a look at some advanced statistics.

But first, I predicted the Timberwolves would put up a 16-66 record.

Photo source: k1k0.com

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 101.7 (29th in the NBA) [101.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 110.8 (28th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -9.1 [-9.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [98.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 110.6 (30th) [107.8 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 99.1 (1st) [96.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Kevin Love
Offensive Rating: 113 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (109)
PER: 22.4 (20.7)

Michael Beasley
Offensive Rating: 100 (101)
Defensive Rating: 111 (103)
PER: 16.9 (16.1)

Wesley Johnson
Offensive Rating: 105 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 9.8

Darko Milicic
Offensive Rating: 90 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 12.5 (12.8)

Sebastian Telfair
Offensive Rating: 101 (98)
Defensive Rating: 115 (111)
PER: 10.4 (10.3)

Corey Brewer
Offensive Rating: 98 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (111)
PER: 12.8 (12.1)

Anthony Tolliver
Offensive Rating: 122 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (112)
PER: 14.3 (13.6)

Luke Ridnour
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 113 (106)
PER: 13.7 (17.7)

Wayne Ellington
Offensive Rating: 85 (101)
Defensive Rating: 114 (115)
PER: 5.3 (9.6)

Nikola Pekovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 8.7

After playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA in the 2009/10 season (96.1 possessions per game), Minnesota has sped up the game even more to play at the fastest pace (99.1) in the league through their first 16 games.  At this point it doesn't seem to be helping them very much.  While they've improved their defensive efficiency ever so slighly, their offensive efficiency is identical to last season.  The quicker pace does make them a little more fun for fans to watch.

Love has already posted some ridiculous stat lines.  His 31-point 31-rebound effort against the Knicks was phenomenal.  On Wednesday night he put up 32 and 22 against the Spurs.  He was a very productive player last year, although mostly under the radar, so his PER has not jumped dramatically.  But, it's very important to note that he is the 17th best player in the NBA right now by PER.

While Beasley's PER has improved slightly, it is somewhat alarming what he's done with his Defensive Rating.  It's fallen from a respectable 103 last season to 110 in 2010.  That can be attributed in part to pace.  Consider the Miami Heat team he was a member of in 2009/10 played at a pace of 89.6 possessions per game, nearly 10 fewer than the Timberwolves.  To his credit, he has raised his shooting percentages nicely, from 45.0 to 47.6 on twos and from 27.5 to 45.5 behind the arc.

No player in the rest of the rotation is producing at the NBA average PER of 15.0.  Free agent signee Tolliver is the closest at 14.3 in less than 20 minutes a game. 

Ridnour recently returned from a hamstring injury.  He's been decent but his PER has fallen from 17.7 last season to 13.7 so far in 2010.  However, he is shooting an impressive 40% from three-point range.  Telfair played the majority of the minutes at the point with Ridnour out.  Based on past performance, his production level is right about what should be expected. 

Besides Beasley, the Timberwolves are struggling to get production from their wings.  Brewer continues to improve at a snail's pace.  To the positive, his Defensive Rating is better by five points per 100 possessions.  Shooting has never been his strength but he's been particularly awful this season.  He's shooting a career worst 35.8%.  The rookie from Syracuse, Johnson, is also struggling with his shooting.

Clearly Minnesota will not be contending for the Western Conference playoffs, nobody expected that to happen.  But, to be happy about their progress they'll want to see some considerable growth in the players that they want to build their future around.  Right now there are just not enough of those types of players.  Love and Beasley are looking good.  Beyond that the Timberwolves need more consistent production from the other youngsters like Johnson and Brewer, and Johnny Flynn when he returns from injury.

What are your observations about the Timberwolves so far in this young season?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Better or Worse

For all the attention the Miami Heat got for making huge moves toward becoming a dynasty, the Timberwolves got nearly the same amount for making moves that seem to be aiming them in the exact opposite direction.  Minnesota has been miserable the last three years, putting up a cumulative record of 61-185.  Their obsession with point guards at the 2009 NBA draft transitioned into an obsession with small forwards at the 2010 NBA draft.  Then they traded away their most talented offensive player (Al Jefferson) for a whole lot of nothing.  Will the Timberwolves be as bad as most everybody expects this upcoming season?  Let's take a look at the key players in the rotation.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: jmagnusphoto

Point Guard
2009 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Luke Ridnour (#8 PG, Level 2)

Unfortunately, Flynn did not have a good rookie season and probably worse, he is mismatched for the triangle offense of coach Kurt Rambis.  Ridnour had a shockingly productive year in Milwaukee.  Ridnour will start while Flynn is injured at the beginning of the season.  I would not be surprised to see Ridnour put the clamps on the starting job.  There is an improvement here, but I don't think there's any chance Ridnour plays to the same level he did last season.  Net wins - 2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Wayne Ellington (#71 SG, Below level)
2010 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7)

Minnesota got really poor production from the shooting guard position in 2009-10.  Brewer is a good defender and a decent three-point shooter, but little more.  The addition of Webster should help here, especially with his three-point shooting prowess.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Damien Wilkins (#45 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Wesley Johnson (Rookie)

By now you are probably seeing a trend in the Timberwolves 2009-10 lineup - sub-par performance.  If Beasley comes anywhere close to reaching the potential that had NBA GMs considering him a top two pick then Minnesota GM David Kahn should be arrested for first degree larceny for getting him for a second round draft pick.  I'd love to say that I think that Wesley Johnson will be a top level pro, but I just don't think he'll be more than an athletic role player.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4), Anthony Tolliver (#39 PF, Level 8)

Love was highly effective in limited minutes.  Very impressively, he averaged 11 rebounds in less than 29 minutes per game.  Tolliver was pretty good with Golden State last season.  Still, the loss of Jefferson will hurt at the four.  Net losses - 2.

Center
2009 - Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level), Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9)
2010 - Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9), Nikola Pekovic (Rookie)

Not sure what it was, but something the Timberwolves saw in Milicic encouraged them enough to sign him to a long-term contract.  Pekovic is a 24-year old rookie from Serbia.  I'm going to drop the T-Wolves down a couple wins here too because of the loss of Jefferson.  Net losses - 2.

Overall
The addition of Ridnour, Webster and Beasley should help the Timberwolves perform better on the court even if it doesn't mean a lot more wins.  They were horrible defensively last season and I don't think that any of those three will make a big difference on that end of the floor.  It also doesn't help Minnesota that they play in a division with four likely playoff teams. 

The Timberwolves were 15-67 in 2009-10.  As I've noted above I have them picking up two wins at point guard and one and a half at shooting guard and small forward while losing two at power forward and center.

In the final verdict the Timberwolves are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project them to put up a 16-66 record in 2010-11.

How do you think Minnesota will be this season?  Do you think they'll do better or worse than I predict?  Let me know by posting a comment below.