(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: jmagnusphoto |
Point Guard
2009 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Luke Ridnour (#8 PG, Level 2)
Unfortunately, Flynn did not have a good rookie season and probably worse, he is mismatched for the triangle offense of coach Kurt Rambis. Ridnour had a shockingly productive year in Milwaukee. Ridnour will start while Flynn is injured at the beginning of the season. I would not be surprised to see Ridnour put the clamps on the starting job. There is an improvement here, but I don't think there's any chance Ridnour plays to the same level he did last season. Net wins - 2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Wayne Ellington (#71 SG, Below level)
2010 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7)
Minnesota got really poor production from the shooting guard position in 2009-10. Brewer is a good defender and a decent three-point shooter, but little more. The addition of Webster should help here, especially with his three-point shooting prowess. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Damien Wilkins (#45 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Wesley Johnson (Rookie)
By now you are probably seeing a trend in the Timberwolves 2009-10 lineup - sub-par performance. If Beasley comes anywhere close to reaching the potential that had NBA GMs considering him a top two pick then Minnesota GM David Kahn should be arrested for first degree larceny for getting him for a second round draft pick. I'd love to say that I think that Wesley Johnson will be a top level pro, but I just don't think he'll be more than an athletic role player. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4), Anthony Tolliver (#39 PF, Level 8)
Love was highly effective in limited minutes. Very impressively, he averaged 11 rebounds in less than 29 minutes per game. Tolliver was pretty good with Golden State last season. Still, the loss of Jefferson will hurt at the four. Net losses - 2.
Center
2009 - Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level), Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9)
2010 - Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9), Nikola Pekovic (Rookie)
Not sure what it was, but something the Timberwolves saw in Milicic encouraged them enough to sign him to a long-term contract. Pekovic is a 24-year old rookie from Serbia. I'm going to drop the T-Wolves down a couple wins here too because of the loss of Jefferson. Net losses - 2.
Overall
The addition of Ridnour, Webster and Beasley should help the Timberwolves perform better on the court even if it doesn't mean a lot more wins. They were horrible defensively last season and I don't think that any of those three will make a big difference on that end of the floor. It also doesn't help Minnesota that they play in a division with four likely playoff teams.
The Timberwolves were 15-67 in 2009-10. As I've noted above I have them picking up two wins at point guard and one and a half at shooting guard and small forward while losing two at power forward and center.
In the final verdict the Timberwolves are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project them to put up a 16-66 record in 2010-11.
How do you think Minnesota will be this season? Do you think they'll do better or worse than I predict? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Ok, so you are docking the Wolves 4 wins for the loss of Jefferson? Also, the subtraction of Hollins and the addition of Pekovic is noteworthy.
ReplyDeleteIf the dropping of from Jefferson to Love is worth 2 losses, then the upgrade at SF should be at least make up for it.
Although I disagree with parts of this article, most of it is pretty much on target, however, I think the consensus among us Wolves fans is 25-30 wins this season
@Anonymous - you raise some fair points. The drop in wins at the four is attributed more to the change from Jefferson to Tolliver than Jefferson to Love.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we know enough about Pekovic to say that he is an uprade over Hollins.
I still think the addition of 1 1/2 wins at SF is fair. I hope Wes Johnson proves me wrong.
If all of the pieces play to the top levels of their development potential this season then 25 wins may be realistic. That would have to be considered a very nice jump.