Orlando Magic at the Quarter Pole

Despite being plagued by a stomach virus that has played some part in them losing their last two games, the Orlando Magic have gotten off to an excellent 15-6 start.  Excluding those last two games, their only bad loss was to Toronto in mid-November.  They avenged a blowout loss to Miami in their second game by beating the Heat in Orlando on Thanksgiving Eve.

What have the Magic been doing well and where are their opportunities for improvement?  Let's take a look at some of the numbers and find out.

But first, I predicted Orlando would finish the 2010-11 season at 59-23.

Photo source: Jeff Kern

Team Stats

Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 107.0 (13th in the NBA) [111.4 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.7 (1st) [103.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 7.3 [8.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.4 (20th) [102.8 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 90.8 (1st) [95.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.1 (19th) [92.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Rashard Lewis
Offensive Rating: 103 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 11.6 (14.0)

Dwight Howard
Offensive Rating: 107 (113)
Defensive Rating: 92 (95)
PER: 24.2 (24.0)

Vince Carter
Offensive Rating: 110 (112)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.2 (17.1)

Quentin Richardson
Offensive Rating: 110 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 12.3 (12.9)

Jameer Nelson
Offensive Rating: 117 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 20.1 (15.5)

Brandon Bass
Offensive Rating: 119 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 20.3 (16.5)

Chris Duhon
Offensive Rating: 88 (107)
Defensive Rating: 104 (114)
PER: 5.6 (10.7)

Mickael Pietrus
Offensive Rating: 106 (106)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 9.6 (11.9)

J.J. Redick
Offensive Rating: 109 (123)
Defensive Rating: 103 (108)
PER: 10.3 (15.0)

Marcin Gortat
Offensive Rating: 118 (113)
Defensive Rating: 97 (99)
PER: 15.0 (13.9)

The Magic have really turned up the defense in 2010.  After finishing fourth in the NBA last season in Defensive Rating and allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions, Orlando is now first in the NBA, allowing only 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Every player in their rotation has improved their Defensive Rating.  The stingier defense has made up for a drop in efficiency on the other side of the floor.  The Magic are currently averaging 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season.

Any discussion about the Magic players has to start with Howard.  He's taken his Defensive Rating down to a ridiculous, and league-leading, 92.  That's from a tremendous 95 in 2009/10.  His 24.2 PER is good for eighth in the NBA.  All of his stats are in line with his recent numbers.  The bottom line - he's playing as well as he ever has.

Surprisingly, Lewis has played more minutes than anyone else on the Magic.  In reality, he'd be behind Howard if not for the stomach bug.  And don't assume Lewis is putting in productive minutes because he really is not.  His PER continues to plummet and is at 11.6 through 21 games, the worst mark since his rookie season and a good bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  While his three-point shooting is a respectable 37.6%, that is still his worst performance behind the arc in seven years.  His overall shooting percentage is down, as are his assist rate, steal rate and rebounds per 36 minutes.

When he's been on the floor Nelson has been excellent.  He's bounced back nicely from a subpar 2009-10, improving his PER from 15.5 to 20.1.  His assists per 36 minutes are up to 8.5 from 6.8 last season.  His shooting touch has also come back.  He's currently knocking down 49.2% of all of his shots and 40.7% of his threes.  The only negative is that he's averaging almost half a turnover more per 36 minutes.

Carter doesn't seem to like to bring his game to the playoffs but his regular season production level has been respectable.  He's keeping it up this year by matching his PER from last season.  He's improved his field-goal shooting but he's turning the ball over at a higher rate than he ever has.

Brought in for his three-point shooting, Richardson hasn't quite delivered at the level Orlando was hoping for.  He's currently shooting 34.5% from downtown compared to 39.7% last season.  Otherwise his PER is right about at the expected level.

Bass has been extremely productive off the bench and has the second highest PER on the team.  This is the fourth year in a row he has improved his PER.  He's shooting a career best 52.3% and is averaging 8.5 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Orlando's backcourt reserves have been disappointing.  Duhon has cut a poor 2009-10 PER in half for a terrible, career low PER so far this season.  Per 36 minutes he's averaging the fewest assists and most turnovers in his career.  Fellow Dukie Redick has failed to carry the momentum from a solid 2009-10 into this season.  He's shooting a putrid 28.6% from three point range.  Pietrus is an interesting case.  He's putting up a career worst 9.5 PER but is shooting a career best 42.9% behind the arc.

Overall, it's been excellent defense that has propelled the Magic to a very good 15-6 record.  To continue to win games they are going to need Nelson to stay healthy and for somebody to step up their offensive game.  That may mean Howard delivering massively in the post or more consistent three point shooting from the wings and Lewis. Or perhaps it will be a new piece if Orlando makes a big trade.  That may be the only way the final results of the season will change.  Because otherwise they are basically a lesser version of last year's team that lost in the Eastern Conference Finals and I'm not confident that any one of their players is playing at a level that so far exceeds where they were then that they will drive the team to victory.

What are your thoughts on Orlando's first 21 games?  Are they good enough to make it to the NBA Finals?  Post a comment below and share your views.