But ultimately if they hope to make the playoffs the Suns have to start winning more games. They are currently 11-12 and one game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. As competitive as the West is, it's hard to see a .500 team getting in. Before the season I predicted the Suns would be left out of the playoffs with a 48-34 record.
So what's worked for Phoenix and where do they need help? Let's take a look at the statistics to see what they tell us.
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| Photo source: Ms. Phoenix |
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.9 (3rd in the NBA) [115.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 113.4 (30th) [110.2 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.5 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.1 (1st) [110.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 109.5 (30th) [105.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.5 (8th) [95.3 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Jason Richardson
Offensive Rating: 116 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 114 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.6)
Channing Frye
Offensive Rating: 115 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (108)
PER: 12.7 (15.0)
Steve Nash
Offensive Rating: 120 (121)
Defensive Rating: 116 (114)
PER: 23.7 (21.6)
Grant Hill
Offensive Rating: 119 (114)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110)
PER: 18.0 (14.0)
Hedo Turkoglu
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 13.4 (13.3)
Hakim Warrick
Offensive Rating: 124 (110)
Defensive Rating: 115 (106)
PER: 19.1 (15.6)
Jared Dudley
Offensive Rating: 108 (124)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 12.2 (13.6)
Goran Dragic
Offensive Rating: 93 (110)
Defensive Rating: 113 (112)
PER: 12.7 (14.8)
Josh Childress
Offensive Rating: 117 (127 in 2007-08)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110 in 2007-08)
PER: 14.1 (17.8)
Robin Lopez
Offensive Rating: 100 (123)
Defensive Rating: 113 (110)
PER: 11.2 (17.6)
When looking at the team statistics you quickly notice that the Suns are not as good offensively as they were last year and have struggled mightily on defense. Their 111.9 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but is 3.4 points lower than 2009-10. That would be okay if their defense was solid, but it's not. Phoenix is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions. A big problem is that they are last in the league in opponent field goal percentage defense. They are allowing opponents to make 42.2% of their shots. That is three percentage points worse than last season. The problem is most apparent in the paint where the Suns are allowing opponents to score 48.6 points per game, most in the NBA.
The Phoenix Suns and Steve Nash are basically synonomous at this point. And Nash is bringing it again in his 15th year. His PER is currently above what it was in his two MVP seasons. Most of his numbers are within reach of career highs. For the most part he hasn't dropped off a bit. The only exception is three-point shooting. Right now he's at a career-worst 32.7%. Also, in a common trend among the Suns, his Defensive Rating has fallen to a career worst.
Richardson has definitely embraced the Suns fast-paced offense. He's having the best season of his career by PER. At 44.0% he's shooting better behind the arc than he ever has. His turnover rate is at a career low. The only negative is that, like Nash, his Defensive Rating is the worst it's been in his career. That includes his go-go years in Golden State.
With Lopez hurt, Frye is logging more minutes per game than he has before in his career. His level of productivity seems to alternate every year and so far in 2010 he's on the down side. His rebounds and assists per 36 minutes are both at career lows. His three-point shooting has dropped from 43.9% last season to 38.6% so far in 2010. On the good side, he's averaging a career high in blocks per 36 minutes.
Hill has been tremendous and is having his most productive season in five years. Much of that stems from a career high field goal percentage of 53.6. His turnover rate is currently the lowest it's been in any one season in his career. But, like the others, he's posting the worst Defensive Rating of his career.
Phoenix picked up Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress with the hopes that they would make up for the loss of Stoudemire. Turkoglu has played the most and been the least productive. His performance has only been slightly better than his bad year last season in Toronto. On a positive note he is shooting a career best 42.4% on threes. Warrick is having the most productive year of his career. That's mostly due to his 55.5% shooting, which is up 7.3% from 2009-10. Childress has yet to find the form he had three years ago before leaving for Europe. One thing that hasn't changed is his solid shooting. He's at 57.0% from the field.
After a season in which they were solid contributors off the bench, both Dudley and Dragic are struggling in 2010. For Dudley it's three-point shooting that's dragging him down. He's at 31.1% this season after knocking down 45.8% in 2009-10. Dragic has been cold from behind the arc as well (30.2%) and has also had a bit of a turnover problem. He's averaging nearly two more per 36 minutes than he did last season.
Lopez showed a lot of promise last year while starting 31 games and posting a 17.6 PER. A knee injury has limited him to only nine games and when he's been on the floor he's had trouble putting the ball in the hoop. His field goal shooting has plummeted to 44.0% from 58.8% last season.
Nobody on the Suns is immune from defensive issues. Every rotation player is posting the worst Defensive Rating of their career. Clearly the team defense needs to be improved if Phoenix hopes to make the playoffs. It would also help if they can get the rotation settled and have the dynamic bench impact that they've had in recent years.
Why do you think the Suns have been so bad defensively this year? What can they do to make a run for the playoffs? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
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