Analyzing the Magic Trades with the Suns and Wizards

The Magic pulled the trigger on two huge trades that will alter the foundation of one of the top contenders for the Eastern Conference title.  Orlando had lost five of their last six games and there was a lot of talk about major chemistry issues.  So Magic president Otis Smith decided it was time to really do something about it.

Photo source: Ttodaizzm

Orlando shipped Rashard Lewis to Washington for Gilbert Arenas.  They then traded Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first round pick and cash to Phoenix for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark.

There's a lot of speculation about what the trade will mean for each team involved.  As you might expect, I want to take a look at some advanced stats to see what they may tell us.  I'll refer to a few different advanced statistics:

• John Hollinger of ESPN's PER, or Player Efficiency Rating.  In short, a player's PER is a rating of their per minute productivity.  The average PER in the NBA is always 15.0.
• The Simple Rating of 82games.com.  This rating factors in a player's PER, the PER of the player they are guarding, the player's plus-minus rating when they are in the game and the plus-minus rating of their team when they are not in the game.
• The Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on Basketball-Reference.com.  The Offensive Rating is how many points the player scores per 100 possessions and the Defensive Rating is how many points the player allows per 100 possessions.

I first want to compare the individual statistics of the players involved and then the impact on each of the teams.  Here are the statistics for the two players involved in the Wizards and Magic deal:

Rashard Lewis
Games: 25
PER: 11.4
Simple: -4.4
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103

Gilbert Arenas
Games: 21
PER: 14.1
Simple: -3.4
Offensive Rating: 98
Defensive Rating: 112

While it's not necessarily an apples to apples comparison, Arenas has a better PER and a better Simple Rating than Lewis.  The advantage goes the other way when it comes to Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  The important point about the Offensive and Defensive Ratings is that they are more heavily influenced by the team around the player.  So in a very simple evaluation of who has been the more productive player so far in 2010, the needle leans from even to slight advantage Arenas.

Now, for the six players involved in the Magic-Suns trade:

Vince Carter
Games: 22
PER: 16.7
Simple: +8.5
Offensive Rating: 111
Defensive Rating: 102

Marcin Gortat
Games: 25
PER: 14.1
Simple: -1.6
Offensive Rating: 114
Defensive Rating: 98

Mickael Pietrus
Games: 19
PER: 8.6
Simple: -4.9
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103

Jason Richardson
Games: 25
PER: 19.6
Simple: +1.7
Offensive Rating: 115
Defensive Rating: 114

Hedo Turkoglu
Games: 25
PER: 13.4
Simple: -4.2
Offensive Rating: 112
Defensive Rating: 113

Earl Clark
Games: 9
PER: 11.6
Simple: -1.5
Offensive Rating: 92
Defensive Rating: 112

Carter and Richardson are as close to a direct match as we'll get.  Richardson has a nearly three point advantage on Carter in PER but Carter makes that up with a nearly seven point advantage in the Simple Rating.  Richardson has a slight advantage in Offensive Rating while Carter has a larger advantage in Defensive Rating.  By numbers only this is pretty close to a push.

It's harder to compare the other four players because they are not really close to matches.  But if you take their raw stats, Gortat has the advantage over Turkoglu, while the Pietrus-Clark comparison is basically a push.

Now let's take a look at how each team will be specifically affected on the floor.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are just glad to have been able to dump the contract of Arenas.  Beyond that Lewis should fit in nicely at the small forward position alongside John Wall, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee.  He'll be challenged to guard the quicker threes in the NBA but his ability to stroke it from behind the arc (36.7% this season and 39.1% for his career) will be a nice addition to a team that is currently 28th in three-point shooting.

Phoenix Suns

This is a very interesting trade for the Suns from an on-the-court perspective.  When I recently analyzed the Suns first quarter of the season, it was their challenges with defense that really stuck out.  They have now shed two of their three worst defenders by opponent's PER (Richardson and Turkoglu) and replaced them with two perimeter players with respectable defensive skills (Carter and Pietrus), while adding a low post player that they desperately needed to help Robin Lopez and Channing Frye on the block.  Carter also gives them another player who can create his own shot while Pietrus could be deadly from three-point range playing off Steve Nash, if he's in the rotation.

Gortat's rebounding skill should also greatly help Phoenix.  The Suns are currently 28th in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, pulling down only 69.8% of all defensive rebounds available to them.  Gortat is grabbing 23.5% of all defensive rebounds available to him, a number that places him 17th in the NBA among centers and first among the Suns.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are placing all of their chips in the middle of the table and playing for keeps.  To really analyze the effect of these trades you have to look at how the Magic rotation will change.  In essence they are swapping:

• Richardson for Carter at the starting two guard
• Turkoglu for Quentin Richardson as their starting small forward
• Brandon Bass for Lewis as the starter at power forward
• Arenas for Chris Duhon as the backup point guard
• Q. Richardson for Pietrus as a backup swing man
• Ryan Anderson for Bass as the backup four
• Bass for Gortat as the backup center

From a strict numbers analysis the J. Richardson for Carter swap is a push, but from the standpoint of how the Magic like to play I think Richardson will fit in very nicely, in large part because of his 41.9% three-point shooting compared to Carter's 34.6%.

Quentin Richardson's numbers are 10.8 PER, -1.2 Simple, 105 Offensive Rating and 102 Defensive Rating.  So again, when compared to Turkoglu in numbers only it is close to even.  But, Turkoglu's ability to create off the dribble can be a huge asset for Orlando and Richardson is probably better playing the backup wing spot that Pietrus manned.  Q is definitely an upgrade in that position for the Magic.

The numbers for Bass are outstanding - 18.2 PER, +8.9 Simple, 112 Offensive Rating and 103 Defensive Rating.  He's a much more productive player at the four than Lewis.  His minutes as the backup to Dwight Howard should be at least equal in productivity to those turned in by Gortat, if not better.

Duhon has struggled in Orlando.  His numbers look like this - 6.3 PER, -5.8 Simple, 90 Offensive Rating and 106 Defensive Rating.  Arenas is a huge improvement and obviously, if he can recapture some of the deadliness of his past, he'll be a great asset.  The question will be whether he will be willing to embrace a smaller role in Orlando.

Anderson has played limited minutes so far this season.  He should be able to provide the three point threat at the power forward position that Lewis has been in good times.

Conclusion
I think these two trades will end up benefitting all three teams.  The Suns have added some defense and rebounding, which they critically needed.  The Magic have added some pieces that raise the ceiling of their team potential to a higher level.  Will it be enough to make them better than the Celtics and Heat?

What are your thoughts on these deals?

Orlando Magic at the Quarter Pole

Despite being plagued by a stomach virus that has played some part in them losing their last two games, the Orlando Magic have gotten off to an excellent 15-6 start.  Excluding those last two games, their only bad loss was to Toronto in mid-November.  They avenged a blowout loss to Miami in their second game by beating the Heat in Orlando on Thanksgiving Eve.

What have the Magic been doing well and where are their opportunities for improvement?  Let's take a look at some of the numbers and find out.

But first, I predicted Orlando would finish the 2010-11 season at 59-23.

Photo source: Jeff Kern

Team Stats

Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 107.0 (13th in the NBA) [111.4 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.7 (1st) [103.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 7.3 [8.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.4 (20th) [102.8 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 90.8 (1st) [95.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.1 (19th) [92.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Rashard Lewis
Offensive Rating: 103 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 11.6 (14.0)

Dwight Howard
Offensive Rating: 107 (113)
Defensive Rating: 92 (95)
PER: 24.2 (24.0)

Vince Carter
Offensive Rating: 110 (112)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.2 (17.1)

Quentin Richardson
Offensive Rating: 110 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 12.3 (12.9)

Jameer Nelson
Offensive Rating: 117 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 20.1 (15.5)

Brandon Bass
Offensive Rating: 119 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 20.3 (16.5)

Chris Duhon
Offensive Rating: 88 (107)
Defensive Rating: 104 (114)
PER: 5.6 (10.7)

Mickael Pietrus
Offensive Rating: 106 (106)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 9.6 (11.9)

J.J. Redick
Offensive Rating: 109 (123)
Defensive Rating: 103 (108)
PER: 10.3 (15.0)

Marcin Gortat
Offensive Rating: 118 (113)
Defensive Rating: 97 (99)
PER: 15.0 (13.9)

The Magic have really turned up the defense in 2010.  After finishing fourth in the NBA last season in Defensive Rating and allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions, Orlando is now first in the NBA, allowing only 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Every player in their rotation has improved their Defensive Rating.  The stingier defense has made up for a drop in efficiency on the other side of the floor.  The Magic are currently averaging 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season.

Any discussion about the Magic players has to start with Howard.  He's taken his Defensive Rating down to a ridiculous, and league-leading, 92.  That's from a tremendous 95 in 2009/10.  His 24.2 PER is good for eighth in the NBA.  All of his stats are in line with his recent numbers.  The bottom line - he's playing as well as he ever has.

Surprisingly, Lewis has played more minutes than anyone else on the Magic.  In reality, he'd be behind Howard if not for the stomach bug.  And don't assume Lewis is putting in productive minutes because he really is not.  His PER continues to plummet and is at 11.6 through 21 games, the worst mark since his rookie season and a good bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  While his three-point shooting is a respectable 37.6%, that is still his worst performance behind the arc in seven years.  His overall shooting percentage is down, as are his assist rate, steal rate and rebounds per 36 minutes.

When he's been on the floor Nelson has been excellent.  He's bounced back nicely from a subpar 2009-10, improving his PER from 15.5 to 20.1.  His assists per 36 minutes are up to 8.5 from 6.8 last season.  His shooting touch has also come back.  He's currently knocking down 49.2% of all of his shots and 40.7% of his threes.  The only negative is that he's averaging almost half a turnover more per 36 minutes.

Carter doesn't seem to like to bring his game to the playoffs but his regular season production level has been respectable.  He's keeping it up this year by matching his PER from last season.  He's improved his field-goal shooting but he's turning the ball over at a higher rate than he ever has.

Brought in for his three-point shooting, Richardson hasn't quite delivered at the level Orlando was hoping for.  He's currently shooting 34.5% from downtown compared to 39.7% last season.  Otherwise his PER is right about at the expected level.

Bass has been extremely productive off the bench and has the second highest PER on the team.  This is the fourth year in a row he has improved his PER.  He's shooting a career best 52.3% and is averaging 8.5 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Orlando's backcourt reserves have been disappointing.  Duhon has cut a poor 2009-10 PER in half for a terrible, career low PER so far this season.  Per 36 minutes he's averaging the fewest assists and most turnovers in his career.  Fellow Dukie Redick has failed to carry the momentum from a solid 2009-10 into this season.  He's shooting a putrid 28.6% from three point range.  Pietrus is an interesting case.  He's putting up a career worst 9.5 PER but is shooting a career best 42.9% behind the arc.

Overall, it's been excellent defense that has propelled the Magic to a very good 15-6 record.  To continue to win games they are going to need Nelson to stay healthy and for somebody to step up their offensive game.  That may mean Howard delivering massively in the post or more consistent three point shooting from the wings and Lewis. Or perhaps it will be a new piece if Orlando makes a big trade.  That may be the only way the final results of the season will change.  Because otherwise they are basically a lesser version of last year's team that lost in the Eastern Conference Finals and I'm not confident that any one of their players is playing at a level that so far exceeds where they were then that they will drive the team to victory.

What are your thoughts on Orlando's first 21 games?  Are they good enough to make it to the NBA Finals?  Post a comment below and share your views.

Orlando Magic - Better or Worse

Photo source: Sreejith K

The Magic followed up their 59-23 season and NBA Finals loss to the Lakers with an identical record in 2009-2010, but with an earlier playoff exit.  Orlando was beaten and frustrated by the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, losing in six games.  Now, after playing the role of the hunted over the past couple of seasons the Magic will be one of the hunters looking to take down the new goliath, the Miami Heat.  How close are they to the Heat?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Jameer Nelson (#17 PG, Level 4), Jason Williams (#21 PG, Level 5)
2010 - Jameer Nelson (#17 PG, Level 4), Jason Williams (#21 PG, Level 5)

The Magic also signed Chris Duhon. I'm not sure why it took them so long to re-sign Williams.  He had a really solid season.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Vince Carter (#5 SG, Level 2), J.J. Redick (#19 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Vince Carter (#5 SG, Level 2), J.J. Redick (#19 PG, Level 4)

Another position with the same two deep as last season.  Statistically Carter had a good regular season but he looked old and unproductive when the Magic needed him in the playoffs.  On the other hand, Redick was steadily effective.  Expect the distribution of playing time to change in '10-'11.

Small Forward
2009 - Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3), Mickael Pietrus (#36 SF, Level 8)
2010 - Quentin Richardson (#18 SG, Level 4), Mickael Pietrus (#36 SF, Level 8)

Richardson, while not providing the defense that Barnes offers, is a stellar three point shooter who knocked down nearly 40% of his shots behind the arc last season.  He's an excellent addition to the Magic's spread everybody out around the three point line offense.

Power Forward
2009 - Rashard Lewis (#35 PF, Level 6), Ryan Anderson (#15 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Rashard Lewis (#35 PF, Level 6), Ryan Anderson (#15 PF, Level 4)

No real changes at the power forward position for the Magic.  There's been talk that Brandon Bass will get more playing time, but we'll leave it like this for now.

Center
2009 - Dwight Howard (#1 C, Level 1), Marcin Gortat (#26 C, Level 5)
2010 - Dwight Howard (#1 C, Level 1), Marcin Gortat (#26 C, Level 5)

Howard and Tim Duncan were a dominating one and two in the center rankings.  Gortat is a quality backup with a big contract.

Overall
The Magic were not in a position to make any major changes to their lineup in the offseason.  The only move that they made that will really affect the rotation is the signing of Richardson to replace Barnes.  In large part they will be banking on Howard to take another step toward domination.  To do so he'll have to develop his low post moves to enhance his ability to score.  The Magic will also need another solid effort from their bench, a rebound year from Lewis and more production from Carter when it counts.  Orlando has been mentioned as a potential destination for Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony, but it seems unlikely that either of those players will end up there this season.  So, based on their projected lineup I've got them staying even at point guard, shooting guard and power forward, while losing a win at small forward and gaining a win (based on Howard's development) at center.

In the final verdict the Magic are THE SAME.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 59-23 for the third season in a row.  That record would put them three games behind my predicted finish for the Heat.

What are your thoughts on Orlando?  Do you think they'll have more wins or fewer?