Clearly Dallas has been one of the better teams in the NBA through the first quarter of the season. Let's take a deeper look at the statistics and see what else we can learn about the Mavs.
But first, I predicted Dallas would finish the season at 53-29.
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| Photo source: dherrera_96 |
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.2 (12th in the NBA) [109.2 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.8 (5th) [106.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 6.4 [2.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 98.0 (19th) [102.0 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.2 (3rd) [99.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.6 (25th) [92.5 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Dirk Nowitzki
Offensive Rating: 117 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 24.6 (22.9)
Jason Kidd
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 102 (105)
PER: 15.4 (17.2)
Jason Terry
Offensive Rating: 109 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (109)
PER: 18.0 (16.5)
Tyson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 138 (107)
Defensive Rating: 97 (102)
PER: 18.7 (12.5)
Shawn Marion
Offensive Rating: 104 (107)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 15.5 (14.7)
Caron Butler
Offensive Rating: 97 (101)
Defensive Rating: 102 (108)
PER: 13.0 (13.7)
Jose Barea
Offensive Rating: 96 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 11.2 (12.8)
Brendan Haywood
Offensive Rating: 102 (117)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 10.0 (16.1)
DeShawn Stevenson
Offensive Rating: 126 (83)
Defensive Rating: 105 (112)
PER: 14.2 (3.3)
Would you believe that the Mavericks are doing it with defense? A team that has lived in the freewheeling, faster-paced "offense can always beat the defense" mindset has found a great deal of success in focusing on defense. They've improved their Defensive Rating a tremendous 4.5 points and are now ranked fifth in the NBA. They've slowed their pace by nearly two possessions per game but are still almost as efficient on offense as last season. And they've improved their rating differential from 2.9 in 2009-10 to 6.4.
As they have been for quite some time now, the Mavs are led by Nowitzki. His 24.6 PER ranks him eighth in the NBA. He's shooting 55.3% overall, his best percentage by a wide margin, and continues to contribute in every area of the game.
Kidd currently has the lowest PER since his rookie season 16 years ago. His field goal shooting is lower than it's ever been in his career but his 35.7% mark behind the arc is still above his career number. Also on the positive side, he's averaging more assists per 36 minutes of play than he has in all but one of his 17 seasons.
The stronger focus on defense certainly shows in Terry's numbers. He's putting up the best Defensive Rating of his career and is averaging more steals per 36 minutes than he ever has. He's also providing the Mavericks a dependable spark off the bench.
Chandler has been a fantastic addition. His 138 Offensive Rating is tops in the NBA and his 97 Defensive Rating is also excellent. His PER is higher than it's ever been. His shooting percentage from the field and the free throw line are at career highs. Most importantly, he's been able to stay healthy, playing in all 20 games.
Formerly known as the Matrix, Marion is not the player he used to be. He's still serviceable though and has improved his PER slightly from a career low last season. He's an awful three-point shooter but his overall field-goal percentage hovers around 50. It is concerning that his turnover rate is at a career worst.
For the third year in a row Butler's production is dropping. His PER is now at a dangerously low 13.0, well below the league average of 15.0. He's still living off the reputation he earned three and four years ago in Washington but he is nowhere near as effective.
Barea gets too many minutes for a guy who's never had a positive differential and whose PER is a poor 11.2. His three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this year and currently stands at 15.9%.
After a solidly productive 2009-10, Haywood is having the worst year of his career. He's shooting very well from the field but everything else is way down.
Stevenson's shooting has kept him in the rotation, in fact he's started 15 of the 17 games he's played despite a PER that ranks him as below average. Knocking down 51.1% of your three point shots will always keep you in the game.
Looking at the individual stats further makes the case that defense is the key to the Mavericks' hot start. All nine players in the rotation have improved their Defensive Rating from last year. Chandler has given Dallas a big boost on the defensive end and his excellent production levels are making up for Haywood's drop off.
If the Mavericks can continue to excel on defense they will be tough to beat. Their problem may be that when they get in a playoff series with a team with a lot of offensive weapons they may not have the firepower to keep up.
What are your thoughts on the Mavericks through the first 20 games of the year? Post a comment below and let me know.
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