Los Angeles Lakers at the Quarter Pole

The Lakers started the season looking unbeatable and winning their first eight.  Then Denver and Phoenix beat them consecutively.  But L.A. responded to those two losses with five victories in a row.  Shockingly though, they would follow the winning streak with a four game losing streak including losses to the likes of Indiana, Houston and Memphis.

So the Lakers stand at 14-6.  Considering their start, the record is disappointing.  Even more so when you consider they are 14-6 against the second weakest schedule in the NBA by opponents' winning percentage.

Let's take a look at what the statistics tell us.  But first, I projected the Lakers to finish the season at 54-28.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 115.2 (1st in the NBA) [108.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.8 (12th) [103.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 9.4 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.5 (2nd) [101.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 99.6 (16th) [97.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.1 (9th) [92.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Pau Gasol
Offensive Rating: 127 (120 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 103 (102)
PER: 24.7 (22.9)

Photo source: bridgetds

Lamar Odom
Offensive Rating: 122 (109)
Defensive Rating: 104 (100)
PER: 19.9 (15.9)

Kobe Bryant
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 107 (104)
PER: 24.7 (21.9)

Ron Artest
Offensive Rating: 107 (106)
Defensive Rating: 107 (105)
PER: 11.5 (12.1)

Derek Fisher
Offensive Rating: 112 (105)
Defensive Rating: 108 (106)
PER: 10.5 (9.3)

Matt Barnes
Offensive Rating: 121 (111)
Defensive Rating: 105 (103)
PER: 17.7 (13.6)

Shannon Brown
Offensive Rating: 122 (105)
Defensive Rating: 105 (105)
PER: 20.4 (12.4)

Steve Blake
Offensive Rating: 111 (108)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 10.3 (11.6)

As a team the Lakers have a spectacular Offensive Rating.  They are averaging 115.2 points per 100 possessions, good for first in the NBA and 6.4 points more than they averaged per 100 possessions in 2009-10.  And as you would expect, without Andrew Bynum their Defensive Rating has fallen, from 103.7 last season to 105.8 through the first 20 games.  But overall their differential has improved from 5.1 to 9.4.  That's tremendous.

He may be third in minutes played but the Lakers fortunes clearly rest on Kobe's shoulders.  And in reality the fact that he's averaging only 33.1 minutes per game, the lowest since his second year in the NBA, is a very good sign.  When it comes to effectiveness, Kobe's PER is the highest it's been in four years.  His shooting has fallen slightly from last year but when you look at his stats per 36 minutes his rebounds and assists are both up and he's getting to the charity stripe at a rate that matches his career high.

Gasol has been nothing short of spectacular so far in 2010.  He's posting a career high 24.7 PER and career bests in rebounds per game (11.6), free-throw shooting (82.6%) and turnover rate.  The only concern for Gasol is that he's averaging the second highest minutes per game of his career (38.7).  After all the games he's played through three straight NBA Finals runs that's not a good idea.

After a subpar season, Odom is currently on pace to put up the most productive year of his career.  His 19.9 PER is a nice four point jump from 2009-10.  His Offensive Rating is the highest it's ever been.  At 57.9% overall and 45.5% from behind the arc he's shooting better than ever before.

It appears that Artest is continuing to slide.  His PER has dropped for the third consecutive year and is quite a bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  Maybe more concerning, he also has the second worst Defensive Rating of his career.  His shooting percentage, rebound rate and assist percentage are all the lowest they've ever been.

To make up for Artest's poor productivity, the Lakers are getting stellar contributions from their wings off the bench.  Both Barnes and Brown are putting up the best PER and Offensive Rating of their careers.  Barnes is shooting better than he ever has from behind the arc (39.6%) and from the free throw line (80.5%) while also grabbing a higher percentage of the rebounds available to him than he ever has (13.3%).  Brown has also been outstanding from three point range (43.1%) while raising the level of every other piece of his game.

When looking at pure production, point guard has been another story.  Fisher has a PER of 10.5 and Blake 10.3.  But both are doing what the L.A. offense asks of them - hitting threes.  Fisher is shooting nearly two a game and making 47.4% while Blake is shooting nearly three and a half a game and putting 47.7% through the hoop.

From a numbers standpoint the Lakers have been superb, both as a team and individually.  And when you take a closer look at the margins in the games they've lost you see they are quite small.  Should they be worried?  I say no.  Bynum's return should help them quite a bit defensively.  They will also be a better team overall with him in the mix.  Considering what the numbers say about them now, it should be the rest of the NBA that's worried.

What are your thoughts on what you've seen so far from the Lakers?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Los Angeles Lakers - Better or Worse

Photo source: Denise Cross

The Lakers were pushed to just about the last minute of the NBA Finals by the Boston Celtics before claiming victory and becoming back-to-back NBA champs.  From beginning to end they had to work harder last season to win than they did the year before.  They suffered through injuries to their best players and won five fewer games than they did in the '08-'09 season but still got the number one seed in the Western Conference.  They made a few changes in the offseason to fortify their depth but are already being affected by injuries with Andrew Bynum likely to miss time at the beginning of the season and Kobe Bryant already dinged up.  Will the Lakers win enough games in the regular season to again claim the top seed in the Western Conference?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Jordan Farmar (#42 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)

Fisher's shooting percentages dropped quite a bit last season, as did his scoring average.  However, he was the only one of the Lakers starters to play in all 82 games.  Farmar was up and down but when averaged out his numbers make him look like a decent backup.  Blake should be ideal at the point in the triangle offense because of his ability to knock down the three.  I think Fisher's continued drop off will result in one less win at this position next season while the addition of Blake will neutralize the loss of Farmar.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)

While not putting up his most productive year, Kobe was still among the top players in the league last season.  Brown put in quality minutes at both the one and the two.  After rumors flew that he would end up elsewhere he did re-sign with the Lakers.  I thought Kobe looked like a lesser player in the NBA Finals and I think a further drop will lead to two less wins, while Brown will be pretty close to even.  Net losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5), Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3)

Barnes was an excellent signing for the Lakers and he could help spell Kobe productively at the two at times as well.  Artest was solid during the regular season and spectacular in the last two games of the NBA Finals.  I think another year in the triangle offense will help Artest add a win while the addition of Barnes will be good for two wins.  Net wins - 3.

Power Forward
2009 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)

There's no other way to put it, Gasol was in elite company last year, dominating the power forward rankings and finishing fourth in the overall rankings.  Odom was also excellent over the course of the season but suffered the usual bouts of inconsistency.  I've got Gasol maintaining his high level of play with Odom dropping a win.  Net losses - 1.

Center
2009 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2)
2010 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)

Injuries may prevent Bynum from ever reaching his full potential.  He had his most healthy season in three years in '09-'10, still playing only 65 games, and was very productive.  Ratliff is a nice add on as a low post defender.  With injuries already affecting Bynum, I've got the Lakers losing two wins at the center position.  Net losses - 2.

Overall
If they are healthy for the playoffs the Lakers are absolutely a threat to three-peat.  But that may be a big if.  I think this may be the year that all those extra playoff games really catch up to them.  I think the Lakers would be well-served to utilize a similar rotation scheme to that used by the Celtics in the second half of last season - sitting their best players for long stretches even if it means taking a loss.  I'm sure Phil Jackson is cooking up something right now.

The NBA champs put up a 57-25 regular season record in '09-'10.  With the win differentials I mentioned above I've got them picking up three wins at small forward while losing two at center and shooting guard and one at point guard and power forward.

In the final verdict the Lakers are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I'll predict their record will be 54-28.

Do you expect more from the Lakers?  Am I way off?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.