NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Shooting Guard Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA shooting guard rankings.  Here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: Tiago Hammil

• Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade tied for the top spot.  That's no surprise - they were one and two in the 2009-10 Final Shooting Guard Rankings.  Wade is first in the PER and Estimated Wins Added categories while Ginobili leads the Simple Rating category.
• Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant are on the second level.  Allen moved up three spots from the 09-10 rankings while Bryant dropped one.
• Interestingly, Eric Gordon and Kevin Martin are both really hurt by their Defensive Rating.  Gordon tied for 51st and Martin tied for 60th. 
• Jason Richardson and Vince Carter, who were essentially swapped for each other by the Magic and Suns, come in 11th and 12th.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Andre Iguodala, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith and Ronnie Brewer.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, O.J. Mayo and John Salmons. 
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are DeShawn Stevenson (up 52), Nick Young (up 43) and Tracy McGrady (up 28).  Those are three very different cases.
• Stevenson boosted his PER from 3.3 last season to a career best 13.3 this season and his Simple Rating from -10 to 3.3. 
• The biggest droppers from 2009-10 are John Salmons (down 37), Quentin Richardson (down 31) and Randy Foye (down 26).
• Salmons really surprises me.  I expected him to be excellent for the Bucks this season after serving as such a uniter when he came over from Chicago during the middle of last season.  The most noticeable difference - his Simple Rating crashed from 7.9 in 09-10 to -4.2 this season.
• Fields is the highest ranking rookie at number 10.  Evan Turner is next at 59.
• The two teams getting the least production from the shooting guard position are Utah and Cleveland.  The Jazz have Raja Bell at 60.  The Cavaliers have Anthony Parker at 61, Alonzo Gee at 62, Manny Harris at 66 and Joey Graham at 68.

Los Angeles Lakers at the Quarter Pole

The Lakers started the season looking unbeatable and winning their first eight.  Then Denver and Phoenix beat them consecutively.  But L.A. responded to those two losses with five victories in a row.  Shockingly though, they would follow the winning streak with a four game losing streak including losses to the likes of Indiana, Houston and Memphis.

So the Lakers stand at 14-6.  Considering their start, the record is disappointing.  Even more so when you consider they are 14-6 against the second weakest schedule in the NBA by opponents' winning percentage.

Let's take a look at what the statistics tell us.  But first, I projected the Lakers to finish the season at 54-28.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 115.2 (1st in the NBA) [108.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.8 (12th) [103.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 9.4 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.5 (2nd) [101.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 99.6 (16th) [97.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.1 (9th) [92.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Pau Gasol
Offensive Rating: 127 (120 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 103 (102)
PER: 24.7 (22.9)

Photo source: bridgetds

Lamar Odom
Offensive Rating: 122 (109)
Defensive Rating: 104 (100)
PER: 19.9 (15.9)

Kobe Bryant
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 107 (104)
PER: 24.7 (21.9)

Ron Artest
Offensive Rating: 107 (106)
Defensive Rating: 107 (105)
PER: 11.5 (12.1)

Derek Fisher
Offensive Rating: 112 (105)
Defensive Rating: 108 (106)
PER: 10.5 (9.3)

Matt Barnes
Offensive Rating: 121 (111)
Defensive Rating: 105 (103)
PER: 17.7 (13.6)

Shannon Brown
Offensive Rating: 122 (105)
Defensive Rating: 105 (105)
PER: 20.4 (12.4)

Steve Blake
Offensive Rating: 111 (108)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 10.3 (11.6)

As a team the Lakers have a spectacular Offensive Rating.  They are averaging 115.2 points per 100 possessions, good for first in the NBA and 6.4 points more than they averaged per 100 possessions in 2009-10.  And as you would expect, without Andrew Bynum their Defensive Rating has fallen, from 103.7 last season to 105.8 through the first 20 games.  But overall their differential has improved from 5.1 to 9.4.  That's tremendous.

He may be third in minutes played but the Lakers fortunes clearly rest on Kobe's shoulders.  And in reality the fact that he's averaging only 33.1 minutes per game, the lowest since his second year in the NBA, is a very good sign.  When it comes to effectiveness, Kobe's PER is the highest it's been in four years.  His shooting has fallen slightly from last year but when you look at his stats per 36 minutes his rebounds and assists are both up and he's getting to the charity stripe at a rate that matches his career high.

Gasol has been nothing short of spectacular so far in 2010.  He's posting a career high 24.7 PER and career bests in rebounds per game (11.6), free-throw shooting (82.6%) and turnover rate.  The only concern for Gasol is that he's averaging the second highest minutes per game of his career (38.7).  After all the games he's played through three straight NBA Finals runs that's not a good idea.

After a subpar season, Odom is currently on pace to put up the most productive year of his career.  His 19.9 PER is a nice four point jump from 2009-10.  His Offensive Rating is the highest it's ever been.  At 57.9% overall and 45.5% from behind the arc he's shooting better than ever before.

It appears that Artest is continuing to slide.  His PER has dropped for the third consecutive year and is quite a bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  Maybe more concerning, he also has the second worst Defensive Rating of his career.  His shooting percentage, rebound rate and assist percentage are all the lowest they've ever been.

To make up for Artest's poor productivity, the Lakers are getting stellar contributions from their wings off the bench.  Both Barnes and Brown are putting up the best PER and Offensive Rating of their careers.  Barnes is shooting better than he ever has from behind the arc (39.6%) and from the free throw line (80.5%) while also grabbing a higher percentage of the rebounds available to him than he ever has (13.3%).  Brown has also been outstanding from three point range (43.1%) while raising the level of every other piece of his game.

When looking at pure production, point guard has been another story.  Fisher has a PER of 10.5 and Blake 10.3.  But both are doing what the L.A. offense asks of them - hitting threes.  Fisher is shooting nearly two a game and making 47.4% while Blake is shooting nearly three and a half a game and putting 47.7% through the hoop.

From a numbers standpoint the Lakers have been superb, both as a team and individually.  And when you take a closer look at the margins in the games they've lost you see they are quite small.  Should they be worried?  I say no.  Bynum's return should help them quite a bit defensively.  They will also be a better team overall with him in the mix.  Considering what the numbers say about them now, it should be the rest of the NBA that's worried.

What are your thoughts on what you've seen so far from the Lakers?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Los Angeles Lakers - Better or Worse

Photo source: Denise Cross

The Lakers were pushed to just about the last minute of the NBA Finals by the Boston Celtics before claiming victory and becoming back-to-back NBA champs.  From beginning to end they had to work harder last season to win than they did the year before.  They suffered through injuries to their best players and won five fewer games than they did in the '08-'09 season but still got the number one seed in the Western Conference.  They made a few changes in the offseason to fortify their depth but are already being affected by injuries with Andrew Bynum likely to miss time at the beginning of the season and Kobe Bryant already dinged up.  Will the Lakers win enough games in the regular season to again claim the top seed in the Western Conference?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Jordan Farmar (#42 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)

Fisher's shooting percentages dropped quite a bit last season, as did his scoring average.  However, he was the only one of the Lakers starters to play in all 82 games.  Farmar was up and down but when averaged out his numbers make him look like a decent backup.  Blake should be ideal at the point in the triangle offense because of his ability to knock down the three.  I think Fisher's continued drop off will result in one less win at this position next season while the addition of Blake will neutralize the loss of Farmar.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)

While not putting up his most productive year, Kobe was still among the top players in the league last season.  Brown put in quality minutes at both the one and the two.  After rumors flew that he would end up elsewhere he did re-sign with the Lakers.  I thought Kobe looked like a lesser player in the NBA Finals and I think a further drop will lead to two less wins, while Brown will be pretty close to even.  Net losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5), Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3)

Barnes was an excellent signing for the Lakers and he could help spell Kobe productively at the two at times as well.  Artest was solid during the regular season and spectacular in the last two games of the NBA Finals.  I think another year in the triangle offense will help Artest add a win while the addition of Barnes will be good for two wins.  Net wins - 3.

Power Forward
2009 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)

There's no other way to put it, Gasol was in elite company last year, dominating the power forward rankings and finishing fourth in the overall rankings.  Odom was also excellent over the course of the season but suffered the usual bouts of inconsistency.  I've got Gasol maintaining his high level of play with Odom dropping a win.  Net losses - 1.

Center
2009 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2)
2010 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)

Injuries may prevent Bynum from ever reaching his full potential.  He had his most healthy season in three years in '09-'10, still playing only 65 games, and was very productive.  Ratliff is a nice add on as a low post defender.  With injuries already affecting Bynum, I've got the Lakers losing two wins at the center position.  Net losses - 2.

Overall
If they are healthy for the playoffs the Lakers are absolutely a threat to three-peat.  But that may be a big if.  I think this may be the year that all those extra playoff games really catch up to them.  I think the Lakers would be well-served to utilize a similar rotation scheme to that used by the Celtics in the second half of last season - sitting their best players for long stretches even if it means taking a loss.  I'm sure Phil Jackson is cooking up something right now.

The NBA champs put up a 57-25 regular season record in '09-'10.  With the win differentials I mentioned above I've got them picking up three wins at small forward while losing two at center and shooting guard and one at point guard and power forward.

In the final verdict the Lakers are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I'll predict their record will be 54-28.

Do you expect more from the Lakers?  Am I way off?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

NBA Shooting Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA shooting guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Below are my thoughts on the data.

• As I mentioned when I posted the rankings, I am absolutely shocked to see Manu Ginobili sitting at the top spot.  I certainly expected it to be Dwayne Wade or Kobe Bryant.  Ginobili is solid all around, ranking either second or third in all five categories.
• Wade finished first in three of the categories but was hurt by a #12 ranking on Offensive Rating.
• Similarly, Kobe was hurt by finishing 29th in the Offensive Rating.
• Ginobili and Wade are far and away above the rest.  The second level includes Kobe, Brandon Roy and Vince Carter.  I would say the third level includes six guys - Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, John Salmons, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson.
• These guys ranked higher than I expected - Carter, Beaubois, Kyle Korver and Quentin Richardson.
• I was surprised by the lower rankings of these guys - Joe Johnson, O.J. Mayo and Ben Gordon.
• It's downright shocking to me that Portland will be signing Wesley Matthews to a five year, $34 million deal.  He ranked 31st by this cumulative statistical analysis.  Now granted, I realize it was his rookie season and you have to allow for growth, but that's a very large contract to give somebody for one year after those contributions.
• Surprisingly J.J. Redick topped the Offensive Rating category.
• Not surprising, if you watched the NBA Finals, Tony Allen came in at number one in Defensive Rating.
• I still think the Bucks signing of John Salmons will prove to be an excellent decision.  Salmons ranked a solid eighth among shooting guards in the cumulative rankings and signed a five year deal for just $5 million more than what Portland gave to Matthews.

What player rankings surprise you the most?