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| Photo source: Denise Cross |
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Jordan Farmar (#42 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)
Fisher's shooting percentages dropped quite a bit last season, as did his scoring average. However, he was the only one of the Lakers starters to play in all 82 games. Farmar was up and down but when averaged out his numbers make him look like a decent backup. Blake should be ideal at the point in the triangle offense because of his ability to knock down the three. I think Fisher's continued drop off will result in one less win at this position next season while the addition of Blake will neutralize the loss of Farmar. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
While not putting up his most productive year, Kobe was still among the top players in the league last season. Brown put in quality minutes at both the one and the two. After rumors flew that he would end up elsewhere he did re-sign with the Lakers. I thought Kobe looked like a lesser player in the NBA Finals and I think a further drop will lead to two less wins, while Brown will be pretty close to even. Net losses - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5), Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3)
Barnes was an excellent signing for the Lakers and he could help spell Kobe productively at the two at times as well. Artest was solid during the regular season and spectacular in the last two games of the NBA Finals. I think another year in the triangle offense will help Artest add a win while the addition of Barnes will be good for two wins. Net wins - 3.
Power Forward
2009 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
There's no other way to put it, Gasol was in elite company last year, dominating the power forward rankings and finishing fourth in the overall rankings. Odom was also excellent over the course of the season but suffered the usual bouts of inconsistency. I've got Gasol maintaining his high level of play with Odom dropping a win. Net losses - 1.
Center
2009 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2)
2010 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)
Injuries may prevent Bynum from ever reaching his full potential. He had his most healthy season in three years in '09-'10, still playing only 65 games, and was very productive. Ratliff is a nice add on as a low post defender. With injuries already affecting Bynum, I've got the Lakers losing two wins at the center position. Net losses - 2.
Overall
If they are healthy for the playoffs the Lakers are absolutely a threat to three-peat. But that may be a big if. I think this may be the year that all those extra playoff games really catch up to them. I think the Lakers would be well-served to utilize a similar rotation scheme to that used by the Celtics in the second half of last season - sitting their best players for long stretches even if it means taking a loss. I'm sure Phil Jackson is cooking up something right now.
The NBA champs put up a 57-25 regular season record in '09-'10. With the win differentials I mentioned above I've got them picking up three wins at small forward while losing two at center and shooting guard and one at point guard and power forward.
In the final verdict the Lakers are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I'll predict their record will be 54-28.
Do you expect more from the Lakers? Am I way off? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
yes, sorry but i think you are way off
ReplyDeleteAnonymous - Why do you think my projection is way off? I'm curious where you think I went wrong.
ReplyDeleteI've got the Lakers at 61 wins this year.
ReplyDeleteThe reason: Matt Barnes and Steve Blake.
Barnes is fine player with IQ and adds wins wherever he goes. He's efficient, he rebounds, plays D, runs plays like they are drawn up. Big pickup for the Lakes and I think he even adds a bit more than Artest. Last year Barnes had 8.7 Wins Produced on a well above average WP48 of 0.199, Artest had 4 with a slightly below average WP48 of 0.075 The question is where the minutes will go, and who should get them.
Blake can play point, is tough, can be trusted to run the right plays and get the ball to the right scorers. The Lakers typically go for scorers at backup guard positions, so this move is different and we'll have to see how it gels. Blake had a +2.1 Wins Produced for a crummy Clippers team last year and he should do the same for the Lakes. That's an upgrade from Farmar.
J. Glanton - thanks for the comment. I like those two signings as well. Barnes was probably a little bit underrated last year by most - I had him ranked as the #9 small forward. He was boosted by his Defensive Rating and some of that may have been overly influenced by the presence of Dwight Howard.
ReplyDeleteBlake was surprisingly low on my point guard rankings - #54. He should fit in very nicely with the triangle offense though. As you reference, the real nice thing with Blake is that he's going to bring a level of consistency that hasn't been there in the recent past.
The key thing for me with the Lakers is that I think they need to play the full season with the end goal in mind. Because their focus is on winning a championship they may lose some regular season games here or there. I thought the wear and tear from so many long seasons was more apparent than ever in the play of the team in the NBA Finals. If that happens again I don't think they'll end up taking the trophy home.
Agree: Barnes was the #9 SF last year. Imagine having THAT on your bench. It's any easy argument to make that Barnes should be the starter over Artest. Artest played 2600 minutes last season and I'll bet that he's under 2000 this year.
ReplyDeleteBlake is the 35th best PG by total production numbers. However he was 20th best on a per/48 minute basis. He was an above average starter for Portland for two years. He's better than the beloved Derrick Fisher, too, and Derrick should also see his minutes go down to under 2000. He'll be in for the final 5 minutes all the time, though.
When you are the Lakers, you can attract this kind of above-average talent to play on your bench.
Thanks for the comment Los Angeles Lakers Tickets. I agree that the Lakers have improved their depth and they certainly are a long team. I just don't think they'll play to peak levels during the regular season and will lose more games than last year as a result.
ReplyDelete