Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA center rankings - here are my observations on the rankings:

• I mentioned it briefly in my initial post - I'm surprised at how close Dwight Howard and Al Horford are at the top of the rankings.  Horford trails Howard by only two total points.
• Howard is first in four of the five categories.  The only exception is the Offensive Rating category in which he's 22nd. 
• Tyson Chandler leads that Offensive Rating category and is a very impressive third.  He and Tim Duncan, who was second in 2009-10, are the second level of centers.
• Andrew Bynum, Nene and Joakim Noah represent the third level.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Chandler, Jeff Foster and JaVale McGee.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson and David Lee.
• Making the biggest jumps from the final 2009-10 rankings are DeAndre Jordan (up 36), Kwame Brown (up 32) and Chandler (up 31).
• Jordan's biggest leap is in the Simple Rating where he was a -7.3 last season but is a 1.4 midway through this season.  He's also already doubled his Estimated Wins Added.
• Chandler has played a big role in Dallas's defensive improvement.  His PER has skyrocketed from 12.58 in 2009-10 to 19.06 so far in 2010-11.  He's already added an estimated 5.3 wins compared to his 1.1 Estimated Wins Added last season.
• Falling the most from the 2009-10 rankings are Jermaine O'Neal (down 35), Brendan Haywood (down 33) and Louis Amundson (down 31).
• Due in large part to his third best Defensive Rating, Omer Asik is the highest ranked rookie.
• The two teams getting the least production from the center position are Phoenix and Cleveland.  The Suns have Channing Frye at 42 and Robin Lopez at 43.  The Cavs have Ryan Hollins at 49.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

The top of the mid-season NBA center rankings are surprisingly close - at least to me. Dwight Howard finished solidly in first in the 2009-10 NBA center rankings. But Al Horford is very close to Howard at mid-season.

For additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season take a look at my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through February 7 here are my center rankings:

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O. Rat Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final . Dwight Howard, ORL 25.68 1 12.8 1 11.1 1 111 22 95 1 26 1 . Al Horford, ATL 22.45 2 9.7 2 8.2 3 122 5 103 16 28 2 . Tyson Chandler, DAL 19.06 7 5.3 7 4.6 10 134 1 101 13 38 3 . Tim Duncan, SA 21.5 3 7.6 3 8.7 2 109 27 99 7 42 4 . Andrew Bynum, LAL 20.61 5 2.9 16 6.5 4 122 5 104 20 50 5 . Nene, DEN 21.45 4 7.3 4 6 6 128 2 107 35 51 6 . Joakim Noah, CHI 19.54 6 3.9 14 0 22 115 12 96 2 56 7 . Emeka Okafor, NO 16.65 18 4.8 10 3.5 13 113 16 100 9 66 8 . Shaquille O'Neal, BOS 17.31 13 2.5 19 5.2 8 111 22 98 5 67 9 . Andrew Bogut, MIL 17.86 10 5.1 8 6.1 5 101 43 98 5 71 10 . Jeff Foster, IND 16.25 20 1.3 26 5.6 7 118 9 100 9 71 11 . Marc Gasol, MEM 16.7 17 4.9 9 5 9 112 19 104 20 74 12 . JaVale McGee, WSH 17.58 12 4.2 13 4.6 10 112 19 105 30 84 13 . Marcin Gortat, PHX 16.72 16 2.7 18 -3.5 37 117 10 103 16 97 14 . Brook Lopez, NJ 18.74 8 6.9 5 4.6 10 106 33 109 46 102 15 . Brad Miller, HOU 17.59 11 2.3 21 0.5 19 120 7 109 46 104 16 . DeAndre Jordan, LAC 14.68 24 2.5 19 1.4 17 114 15 106 32 107 17 . Ronny Turiaf, NY 14.33 25 1.4 23 1.7 15 127 3 108 42 108 18 . Al Jefferson, UTAH 18.32 9 6.7 6 -3.2 35 109 27 107 35 112 19 . Chuck Hayes, HOU 16.14 21 2.9 16 -2.5 30 124 4 108 42 113 20 . Zydrunas Ilgauskas, MIA 13.09 32 1 30 0.5 19 108 29 100 9 119 21 . Roy Hibbert, IND 15.52 22 3 15 0 22 97 47 102 15 121 22 . Kurt Thomas, CHI 11.26 41 0.2 40 0 22 112 19 97 3 125 23 . David Lee, GS 17 14 4.4 12 1.6 16 108 29 111 56 127 24 . Nazr Mohammed, CHA 16.99 15 2.2 22 -3.3 36 102 39 104 20 132 25 . Kwame Brown, CHA 13.98 27 1.3 26 -2.7 33 115 12 107 35 133 26 . Anthony Tolliver, MIN 13.27 30 0.8 33 2.7 14 116 11 111 56 144 27 . Marreese Speights, PHI 14.88 23 1.1 28 -1 26 104 38 105 30 145 28 . Chris Andersen, DEN 14.03 26 0.5 38 -3.6 38 115 12 106 32 146 29 . Jason Thompson, SAC 13.96 28 1.4 23 -0.4 25 106 33 108 42 151 30 . Samuel Dalembert, SAC 12.69 35 0.9 31 0.4 21 96 50 104 20 157 31 . Andris Biedrins, GS 12.9 34 1.1 28 -5.2 44 113 16 107 35 157 32 . Andrea Bargnani, TOR 16.34 19 4.5 11 -2.6 31 102 39 113 60 160 33 . Omer Asik, CHI 10.69 43 0 42 -2.8 34 101 43 97 3 165 34 . Ben Wallace, DET 12.48 36 0.9 31 -5.2 44 102 39 104 20 170 35 . Nenad Krstic, OKC 12.37 37 0.8 33 -2.4 28 110 25 110 53 176 36 . Darko Milicic, MIN 13.14 31 1.4 23 -2.6 31 92 57 107 35 177 37 . Semih Erden, BOS 10.74 42 0 42 -12.5 58 108 29 99 7 178 38 . Trevor Booker, WSH 13 33 0.6 37 -4.6 41 110 25 109 46 182 39 . Zaza Pachulia, ATL 10.46 44 0 42 -5 43 105 36 104 20 185 40 . Joel Anthony, MIA 7.55 56 -1.4 61 -6 47 119 8 103 16 188 41 . Channing Frye, PHX 11.66 38 0.8 33 -4.7 42 106 33 109 46 192 42 . Robin Lopez, PHX 13.34 29 0.8 33 -4.1 39 107 32 112 59 192 43 . Erick Dampier, MIA 7.49 57 -0.5 55 -2.4 28 100 45 101 13 198 44 . Spencer Hawes, PHI 11.58 39 0.5 38 -6.3 48 93 55 104 20 200 45 . Brendan Haywood, DAL 10.14 47 -0.2 48 -9 55 102 39 103 16 205 46 . Solomon Jones, IND 9.59 50 -0.2 48 -7.5 50 98 46 104 20 214 47 . Francisco Elson, UTAH 10.07 48 -0.1 46 -4.1 39 105 36 109 46 215 48 . Ryan Hollins, CLE 11.46 40 0.2 40 -8.3 53 111 22 113 60 215 49 . Jermaine O'Neal, BOS 9.09 53 -0.2 48 -9.5 56 95 51 100 9 217 50 . Melvin Ely, DEN 8.07 54 -0.4 54 -5.2 44 113 16 110 53 221 51 . Johan Petro, NJ 9.61 49 -0.2 48 -8.9 54 95 51 104 20 222 52 . Jason Collins, ATL 5.39 60 -1.1 60 -2 27 97 47 107 35 229 53 . Kyrylo Fesenko, UTAH 5.72 59 -0.8 58 0.9 18 89 61 109 46 242 54 . Dan Gadzuric, GS 10.33 45 0 42 -10.6 57 94 53 109 46 243 55 . Hilton Armstrong, WSH 7.96 55 -0.5 55 -7.5 50 93 55 106 32 247 56 . Nikola Pekovic, MIN 10.15 46 -0.1 46 -8.2 52 97 47 111 56 247 57 . Josh Powell, ATL 9.51 51 -0.3 53 -13.9 60 94 53 108 42 259 58 . Louis Amundson, GS 9.46 52 -0.2 48 -6.5 49 92 57 110 53 259 59 . Hasheem Thabeet, MEM 4.84 61 -1 59 -18.5 61 91 59 104 20 260 60 . Timofey Mozgov, NY 7.42 58 -0.5 55 -13.5 59 91 59 107 35 266 61

In the next couple of days I'll follow up with my observations.  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Los Angeles Lakers - Better or Worse

Photo source: Denise Cross

The Lakers were pushed to just about the last minute of the NBA Finals by the Boston Celtics before claiming victory and becoming back-to-back NBA champs.  From beginning to end they had to work harder last season to win than they did the year before.  They suffered through injuries to their best players and won five fewer games than they did in the '08-'09 season but still got the number one seed in the Western Conference.  They made a few changes in the offseason to fortify their depth but are already being affected by injuries with Andrew Bynum likely to miss time at the beginning of the season and Kobe Bryant already dinged up.  Will the Lakers win enough games in the regular season to again claim the top seed in the Western Conference?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Jordan Farmar (#42 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)

Fisher's shooting percentages dropped quite a bit last season, as did his scoring average.  However, he was the only one of the Lakers starters to play in all 82 games.  Farmar was up and down but when averaged out his numbers make him look like a decent backup.  Blake should be ideal at the point in the triangle offense because of his ability to knock down the three.  I think Fisher's continued drop off will result in one less win at this position next season while the addition of Blake will neutralize the loss of Farmar.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)

While not putting up his most productive year, Kobe was still among the top players in the league last season.  Brown put in quality minutes at both the one and the two.  After rumors flew that he would end up elsewhere he did re-sign with the Lakers.  I thought Kobe looked like a lesser player in the NBA Finals and I think a further drop will lead to two less wins, while Brown will be pretty close to even.  Net losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5), Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3)

Barnes was an excellent signing for the Lakers and he could help spell Kobe productively at the two at times as well.  Artest was solid during the regular season and spectacular in the last two games of the NBA Finals.  I think another year in the triangle offense will help Artest add a win while the addition of Barnes will be good for two wins.  Net wins - 3.

Power Forward
2009 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)

There's no other way to put it, Gasol was in elite company last year, dominating the power forward rankings and finishing fourth in the overall rankings.  Odom was also excellent over the course of the season but suffered the usual bouts of inconsistency.  I've got Gasol maintaining his high level of play with Odom dropping a win.  Net losses - 1.

Center
2009 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2)
2010 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)

Injuries may prevent Bynum from ever reaching his full potential.  He had his most healthy season in three years in '09-'10, still playing only 65 games, and was very productive.  Ratliff is a nice add on as a low post defender.  With injuries already affecting Bynum, I've got the Lakers losing two wins at the center position.  Net losses - 2.

Overall
If they are healthy for the playoffs the Lakers are absolutely a threat to three-peat.  But that may be a big if.  I think this may be the year that all those extra playoff games really catch up to them.  I think the Lakers would be well-served to utilize a similar rotation scheme to that used by the Celtics in the second half of last season - sitting their best players for long stretches even if it means taking a loss.  I'm sure Phil Jackson is cooking up something right now.

The NBA champs put up a 57-25 regular season record in '09-'10.  With the win differentials I mentioned above I've got them picking up three wins at small forward while losing two at center and shooting guard and one at point guard and power forward.

In the final verdict the Lakers are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I'll predict their record will be 54-28.

Do you expect more from the Lakers?  Am I way off?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.