Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Shooting Guard Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA shooting guard rankings.  Here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: Tiago Hammil

• Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade tied for the top spot.  That's no surprise - they were one and two in the 2009-10 Final Shooting Guard Rankings.  Wade is first in the PER and Estimated Wins Added categories while Ginobili leads the Simple Rating category.
• Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant are on the second level.  Allen moved up three spots from the 09-10 rankings while Bryant dropped one.
• Interestingly, Eric Gordon and Kevin Martin are both really hurt by their Defensive Rating.  Gordon tied for 51st and Martin tied for 60th. 
• Jason Richardson and Vince Carter, who were essentially swapped for each other by the Magic and Suns, come in 11th and 12th.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Andre Iguodala, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith and Ronnie Brewer.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, O.J. Mayo and John Salmons. 
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are DeShawn Stevenson (up 52), Nick Young (up 43) and Tracy McGrady (up 28).  Those are three very different cases.
• Stevenson boosted his PER from 3.3 last season to a career best 13.3 this season and his Simple Rating from -10 to 3.3. 
• The biggest droppers from 2009-10 are John Salmons (down 37), Quentin Richardson (down 31) and Randy Foye (down 26).
• Salmons really surprises me.  I expected him to be excellent for the Bucks this season after serving as such a uniter when he came over from Chicago during the middle of last season.  The most noticeable difference - his Simple Rating crashed from 7.9 in 09-10 to -4.2 this season.
• Fields is the highest ranking rookie at number 10.  Evan Turner is next at 59.
• The two teams getting the least production from the shooting guard position are Utah and Cleveland.  The Jazz have Raja Bell at 60.  The Cavaliers have Anthony Parker at 61, Alonzo Gee at 62, Manny Harris at 66 and Joey Graham at 68.

Analyzing the Magic Trades with the Suns and Wizards

The Magic pulled the trigger on two huge trades that will alter the foundation of one of the top contenders for the Eastern Conference title.  Orlando had lost five of their last six games and there was a lot of talk about major chemistry issues.  So Magic president Otis Smith decided it was time to really do something about it.

Photo source: Ttodaizzm

Orlando shipped Rashard Lewis to Washington for Gilbert Arenas.  They then traded Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first round pick and cash to Phoenix for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark.

There's a lot of speculation about what the trade will mean for each team involved.  As you might expect, I want to take a look at some advanced stats to see what they may tell us.  I'll refer to a few different advanced statistics:

• John Hollinger of ESPN's PER, or Player Efficiency Rating.  In short, a player's PER is a rating of their per minute productivity.  The average PER in the NBA is always 15.0.
• The Simple Rating of 82games.com.  This rating factors in a player's PER, the PER of the player they are guarding, the player's plus-minus rating when they are in the game and the plus-minus rating of their team when they are not in the game.
• The Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on Basketball-Reference.com.  The Offensive Rating is how many points the player scores per 100 possessions and the Defensive Rating is how many points the player allows per 100 possessions.

I first want to compare the individual statistics of the players involved and then the impact on each of the teams.  Here are the statistics for the two players involved in the Wizards and Magic deal:

Rashard Lewis
Games: 25
PER: 11.4
Simple: -4.4
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103

Gilbert Arenas
Games: 21
PER: 14.1
Simple: -3.4
Offensive Rating: 98
Defensive Rating: 112

While it's not necessarily an apples to apples comparison, Arenas has a better PER and a better Simple Rating than Lewis.  The advantage goes the other way when it comes to Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  The important point about the Offensive and Defensive Ratings is that they are more heavily influenced by the team around the player.  So in a very simple evaluation of who has been the more productive player so far in 2010, the needle leans from even to slight advantage Arenas.

Now, for the six players involved in the Magic-Suns trade:

Vince Carter
Games: 22
PER: 16.7
Simple: +8.5
Offensive Rating: 111
Defensive Rating: 102

Marcin Gortat
Games: 25
PER: 14.1
Simple: -1.6
Offensive Rating: 114
Defensive Rating: 98

Mickael Pietrus
Games: 19
PER: 8.6
Simple: -4.9
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103

Jason Richardson
Games: 25
PER: 19.6
Simple: +1.7
Offensive Rating: 115
Defensive Rating: 114

Hedo Turkoglu
Games: 25
PER: 13.4
Simple: -4.2
Offensive Rating: 112
Defensive Rating: 113

Earl Clark
Games: 9
PER: 11.6
Simple: -1.5
Offensive Rating: 92
Defensive Rating: 112

Carter and Richardson are as close to a direct match as we'll get.  Richardson has a nearly three point advantage on Carter in PER but Carter makes that up with a nearly seven point advantage in the Simple Rating.  Richardson has a slight advantage in Offensive Rating while Carter has a larger advantage in Defensive Rating.  By numbers only this is pretty close to a push.

It's harder to compare the other four players because they are not really close to matches.  But if you take their raw stats, Gortat has the advantage over Turkoglu, while the Pietrus-Clark comparison is basically a push.

Now let's take a look at how each team will be specifically affected on the floor.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are just glad to have been able to dump the contract of Arenas.  Beyond that Lewis should fit in nicely at the small forward position alongside John Wall, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee.  He'll be challenged to guard the quicker threes in the NBA but his ability to stroke it from behind the arc (36.7% this season and 39.1% for his career) will be a nice addition to a team that is currently 28th in three-point shooting.

Phoenix Suns

This is a very interesting trade for the Suns from an on-the-court perspective.  When I recently analyzed the Suns first quarter of the season, it was their challenges with defense that really stuck out.  They have now shed two of their three worst defenders by opponent's PER (Richardson and Turkoglu) and replaced them with two perimeter players with respectable defensive skills (Carter and Pietrus), while adding a low post player that they desperately needed to help Robin Lopez and Channing Frye on the block.  Carter also gives them another player who can create his own shot while Pietrus could be deadly from three-point range playing off Steve Nash, if he's in the rotation.

Gortat's rebounding skill should also greatly help Phoenix.  The Suns are currently 28th in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, pulling down only 69.8% of all defensive rebounds available to them.  Gortat is grabbing 23.5% of all defensive rebounds available to him, a number that places him 17th in the NBA among centers and first among the Suns.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are placing all of their chips in the middle of the table and playing for keeps.  To really analyze the effect of these trades you have to look at how the Magic rotation will change.  In essence they are swapping:

• Richardson for Carter at the starting two guard
• Turkoglu for Quentin Richardson as their starting small forward
• Brandon Bass for Lewis as the starter at power forward
• Arenas for Chris Duhon as the backup point guard
• Q. Richardson for Pietrus as a backup swing man
• Ryan Anderson for Bass as the backup four
• Bass for Gortat as the backup center

From a strict numbers analysis the J. Richardson for Carter swap is a push, but from the standpoint of how the Magic like to play I think Richardson will fit in very nicely, in large part because of his 41.9% three-point shooting compared to Carter's 34.6%.

Quentin Richardson's numbers are 10.8 PER, -1.2 Simple, 105 Offensive Rating and 102 Defensive Rating.  So again, when compared to Turkoglu in numbers only it is close to even.  But, Turkoglu's ability to create off the dribble can be a huge asset for Orlando and Richardson is probably better playing the backup wing spot that Pietrus manned.  Q is definitely an upgrade in that position for the Magic.

The numbers for Bass are outstanding - 18.2 PER, +8.9 Simple, 112 Offensive Rating and 103 Defensive Rating.  He's a much more productive player at the four than Lewis.  His minutes as the backup to Dwight Howard should be at least equal in productivity to those turned in by Gortat, if not better.

Duhon has struggled in Orlando.  His numbers look like this - 6.3 PER, -5.8 Simple, 90 Offensive Rating and 106 Defensive Rating.  Arenas is a huge improvement and obviously, if he can recapture some of the deadliness of his past, he'll be a great asset.  The question will be whether he will be willing to embrace a smaller role in Orlando.

Anderson has played limited minutes so far this season.  He should be able to provide the three point threat at the power forward position that Lewis has been in good times.

Conclusion
I think these two trades will end up benefitting all three teams.  The Suns have added some defense and rebounding, which they critically needed.  The Magic have added some pieces that raise the ceiling of their team potential to a higher level.  Will it be enough to make them better than the Celtics and Heat?

What are your thoughts on these deals?

Phoenix Suns at the Quarter Pole

After losing Amare Stoudemire and adding a number of interesting parts, we didn't know what to expect from the Suns. So far they've been up and down. They have really good wins on the road at Utah, Atlanta and Los Angeles (over the Lakers). Their two worst losses are at Charlotte and home against Memphis. To their defense, Phoenix has played the seventh most difficult schedule in the NBA.

But ultimately if they hope to make the playoffs the Suns have to start winning more games. They are currently 11-12 and one game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. As competitive as the West is, it's hard to see a .500 team getting in. Before the season I predicted the Suns would be left out of the playoffs with a 48-34 record.

So what's worked for Phoenix and where do they need help?  Let's take a look at the statistics to see what they tell us.

Photo source: Ms. Phoenix

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.9 (3rd in the NBA) [115.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 113.4 (30th) [110.2 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.5 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.1 (1st) [110.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 109.5 (30th) [105.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.5 (8th) [95.3 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Jason Richardson
Offensive Rating: 116 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 114 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.6)

Channing Frye
Offensive Rating: 115 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (108)
PER: 12.7 (15.0)

Steve Nash
Offensive Rating: 120 (121)
Defensive Rating: 116 (114)
PER: 23.7 (21.6)

Grant Hill
Offensive Rating: 119 (114)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110)
PER: 18.0 (14.0)

Hedo Turkoglu
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 13.4 (13.3)

Hakim Warrick
Offensive Rating: 124 (110)
Defensive Rating: 115 (106)
PER: 19.1 (15.6)

Jared Dudley
Offensive Rating: 108 (124)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 12.2 (13.6)

Goran Dragic
Offensive Rating: 93 (110)
Defensive Rating: 113 (112)
PER: 12.7 (14.8)

Josh Childress
Offensive Rating: 117 (127 in 2007-08)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110 in 2007-08)
PER: 14.1 (17.8)

Robin Lopez
Offensive Rating: 100 (123)
Defensive Rating: 113 (110)
PER: 11.2 (17.6)

When looking at the team statistics you quickly notice that the Suns are not as good offensively as they were last year and have struggled mightily on defense.  Their 111.9 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but is 3.4 points lower than 2009-10.  That would be okay if their defense was solid, but it's not.  Phoenix is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions.  A big problem is that they are last in the league in opponent field goal percentage defense.  They are allowing opponents to make 42.2% of their shots.  That is three percentage points worse than last season.  The problem is most apparent in the paint where the Suns are allowing opponents to score 48.6 points per game, most in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns and Steve Nash are basically synonomous at this point.  And Nash is bringing it again in his 15th year.  His PER is currently above what it was in his two MVP seasons.  Most of his numbers are within reach of career highs.  For the most part he hasn't dropped off a bit.  The only exception is three-point shooting.  Right now he's at a career-worst 32.7%.  Also, in a common trend among the Suns, his Defensive Rating has fallen to a career worst.

Richardson has definitely embraced the Suns fast-paced offense.  He's having the best season of his career by PER.  At 44.0% he's shooting better behind the arc than he ever has.  His turnover rate is at a career low.  The only negative is that, like Nash, his Defensive Rating is the worst it's been in his career.  That includes his go-go years in Golden State.

With Lopez hurt, Frye is logging more minutes per game than he has before in his career.  His level of productivity seems to alternate every year and so far in 2010 he's on the down side.  His rebounds and assists per 36 minutes are both at career lows.  His three-point shooting has dropped from 43.9% last season to 38.6% so far in 2010.  On the good side, he's averaging a career high in blocks per 36 minutes.

Hill has been tremendous and is having his most productive season in five years.  Much of that stems from a career high field goal percentage of 53.6.  His turnover rate is currently the lowest it's been in any one season in his career.  But, like the others, he's posting the worst Defensive Rating of his career.

Phoenix picked up Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress with the hopes that they would make up for the loss of Stoudemire.  Turkoglu has played the most and been the least productive.  His performance has only been slightly better than his bad year last season in Toronto.  On a positive note he is shooting a career best 42.4% on threes.  Warrick is having the most productive year of his career.  That's mostly due to his 55.5% shooting, which is up 7.3% from 2009-10.  Childress has yet to find the form he had three years ago before leaving for Europe.  One thing that hasn't changed is his solid shooting.  He's at 57.0% from the field.

After a season in which they were solid contributors off the bench, both Dudley and Dragic are struggling in 2010.  For Dudley it's three-point shooting that's dragging him down.  He's at 31.1% this season after knocking down 45.8% in 2009-10.  Dragic has been cold from behind the arc as well (30.2%) and has also had a bit of a turnover problem.  He's averaging nearly two more per 36 minutes than he did last season.

Lopez showed a lot of promise last year while starting 31 games and posting a 17.6 PER.  A knee injury has limited him to only nine games and when he's been on the floor he's had trouble putting the ball in the hoop.  His field goal shooting has plummeted to 44.0% from 58.8% last season.

Nobody on the Suns is immune from defensive issues.  Every rotation player is posting the worst Defensive Rating of their career.  Clearly the team defense needs to be improved if Phoenix hopes to make the playoffs.  It would also help if they can get the rotation settled and have the dynamic bench impact that they've had in recent years.

Why do you think the Suns have been so bad defensively this year?  What can they do to make a run for the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Phoenix Suns - Better or Worse

Following a very good regular season in which they earned the number three seed in the Western Conference, the Suns had an excellent postseason, beating the Blazers in six games then sweeping the Spurs before falling to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in six.  But the offseason brought a lot of change to Phoenix with Amare Stoudamire signing with the Knicks and the Suns then orchestrating some free agent signings and trades.  Will all the summer moves result in winter success?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: kevindooley

Point Guard
2009 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)

Nash was spectacular as usual last season.  The only reason he didn't rank among the top three point guards in my rankings is because his Defensive Rating was 62nd.  Dragic was a solid backup in his second year in the NBA.  I think Nash will start to slide this season resulting in the loss of two wins while the development of Dragic will get one of those wins back.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Leandro Barbosa (#34 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Josh Childress (Played in Europe)

Richardson was good in the '09-'10 campaign but suffered a little bit of a drop off.  Childress is coming back to the NBA after a two year run in Europe.  He was a very productive role player for the Hawks before going overseas.  I project that Richardson will slide back slightly more leading to one loss while Childress will not be as productive as Barbosa was last season resulting in another loss.  Net losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)

The Suns got consistently excellent production from the small forward position last season.  One of the keys was three-point shooting, which is always important in a Steve Nash-run offense.  Hill shot 44% from behind the arc while Dudley shot 46%.  I've got Phoenix losing two games due to a drop off in Hill's play while staying even with Dudley.  I just think he reached his ceiling last year.  Net losses - 2.

Power Forward
2009 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3)
2010 - Hedo Turkoglu (#32 SF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)

Stoudamire was very good for most of last season and even better in the playoffs.  Replacing him will be a very tough task.  The Suns are likely to use a mix of players at the four.  Turkoglu, who completely flamed out in Toronto, could get the bulk of the minutes if he shows he can guard other power forwards.  Regardless, Phoenix will not be able to match the production they got from Stoudamire last season.  Net losses - 4.

Center
2009 - Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5), Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5)
2010 - Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5), Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5)

Both Frye and Lopez put in good minutes for the Suns in the '09-'10 campaign.  Technically Frye started more games than Lopez.  They are both back in 2010 with Lopez the clear starter and Frye offering versatility off the pine.  Development from both players will lead to an improvement in production at the five.  Net wins - 3.

Overall
From the beginning of the season the Suns will be trying to make up for the loss of Stoudamire and fighting the effects of age.  They led the NBA in field-goal percentage and three-point field-goal percentage last season.  They will have to shoot just as efficiently this season if they hope to come close to matching last year's record, which was 54-28.  Looking at the season ahead, as highlighted above I've got them adding three wins at the center position, but losing four at power forward, two at small forward, two at shooting guard and one at point guard.

In the final verdict the Suns are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season with a 48-34 record.

Let me know why you think I'm wrong or right by posting a comment below.