Miami is 6-4 and has already lost twice to Eastern Conference rival Boston. They've also lost to the still undefeated New Orleans Hornets in the Big Easy and at home to a hot Utah Jazz team. I don't think any of the four losses should be filed in the "Bad Loss" category. What do the early season statistics tell us about the Heat? Let's take a look.
I predicted the Heat would finish the season at 62-20.
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.2 (4th in the NBA) [106.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.0 (5th) [104.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.2 [2.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.7 (8th) [96.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 93.3 (5th) [94.2 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (22nd) [89.6]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
LeBron James
Offensive Rating: 107 (121 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 99 (102)
PER: 23.6 (31.1)
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| Photo source: rubendn |
Offensive Rating: 110 (113)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 24.4 (28.0)
Chris Bosh
Offensive Rating: 118 (117)
Defensive Rating: 101 (111)
PER: 18.7 (25.0)
Udonis Haslem
Offensive Rating: 112 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (104)
PER: 13.6 (14.6)
James Jones
Offensive Rating: 144 (113)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 14.7 (8.8)
Carlos Arroyo
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.0 (12.3)
Eddie House
Offensive Rating: 106 (99)
Defensive Rating: 101 (109)
PER: 12.1 (10.5)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 15.1 (12.0)
Joel Anthony
Offensive Rating: 135 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 8.3 (10.2)
From a statistical ranking standpoint the Heat look good with both their Offensive and Defensive Efficiency within the NBA's top five. A 10.2 rating differential is also excellent, and much improved, as you'd expect. Interestingly, they do play at a rather slow pace of 91.4 possessions per game, which ranks them 22nd in the NBA. You'd think that with LeBron and Wade they would play at a quicker pace.
The two most fascinating storylines around the Heat will be one, how the combination of the The Big Three affects the productivity of each individual superstar, and two, how much the supporting cast will contribute.
Starting with the first storyline, immediately you notice that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are all producing less in 2010 than they did last season. LeBron's PER has dropped by 7.5 points. His shooting percentage is down, his scoring is down, his rebounding is down and his turnovers are up. Bosh's PER is down 6.3 points. His scoring and rebounding have dropped nearly 50%. Wade's PER has fallen by the smallest amount among The Big Three, 3.6 points. His shooting percentage and rebounding are actually up but his assists and scoring are down.
Looking at the second storyline, you can see some of the challenges Miami has experienced so far. Only one of the six Heat players in the supporting cast who have played significant minutes has a PER above the average player. That one is Ilgauskas who is 0.1 above the average.
Jones has put in some good minutes and has raised his PER by nearly six points over last season. His Offensive Rating is an extremely impressive 144.
Haslem is being counted on to be one of the closers on the front line but his production has not been good and is down from 2009/10. The same can be said of starting "point guard" Arroyo.
The Heat are said to be reconsidering Erick Dampier. Look no further than the play of Anthony for the reason. His 8.3 PER is miserable.
Miami will be happy to get Mike Miller back from injury, but even taking that into consideration, it looks like they may need to make another move, to secure a strong defensive low post player, if they want to claim the NBA Finals.
What are your thoughts on the first 10 games of the Heat season? What do you think they need to do to become the Superteam they are supposed to be? Let me know by posting a comment below.
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