Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

It's been a great year so far for point guards in the NBA. Just try to pick one to start on the Western Conference All Star team. You've got Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker who are all having spectacular seasons.

Who's leading the NBA point guard pack in production? The answer is below. You can find my ranking process on my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.  And, if you are interested, Deron Williams was the top-rated point guard for the 2009-10 season.

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final Rank . Chris Paul, NO 25.55 1 11 1 12.5 2 125 1 99 1 6 1 . Derrick Rose, CHI 23.13 5 9.4 4 7.1 4 111 17 102 4 34 2 . Tony Parker, SA 20.97 6 6.9 6 4 7 114 12 105 9 40 3 . Rajon Rondo, BOS 19.6 8 4.8 9 9 3 110 21 100 2 43 4 . Andre Miller, POR 19.07 9 5.5 7 6.8 5 112 14 107 22 57 5 . Deron Williams, UTAH 23.44 4 9.9 2 4.1 6 120 3 111 46 61 6 . Russell Westbrook, OKC 24.15 2 9.9 2 2.9 12 110 21 108 28 65 7 . Steve Nash, PHX 24.02 3 8.1 5 15.8 1 123 2 116 64 75 8 . Stephen Curry, GS 19.74 7 4.7 10 3.5 8 112 14 111 46 85 9 . George Hill, SA 14.53 34 1.8 32 3.3 11 116 7 105 9 93 10 . Shannon Brown, LAL 16.66 23 2.3 29 3.5 8 111 17 106 16 93 10 . Jose Calderon, TOR 17.95 12 3.7 16 2.4 13 116 7 112 51 99 12 . D.J. Augustin, CHA 16.69 22 3.9 13 0.8 24 119 5 110 39 103 13 . Jameer Nelson, ORL 16.09 25 2.9 22 -1 34 112 14 105 9 104 14 . Lou Williams, PHI 17.58 14 2.9 22 3.4 10 108 27 109 32 105 15 . Beno Udrih, SAC 16.95 17 3.9 13 -0.8 33 120 3 110 39 105 15 . Chauncey Billups, DEN 17.46 16 3.8 15 0.8 24 116 7 111 46 108 17 . Rodney Stuckey, DET 18.31 10 4.3 12 1.6 19 111 17 112 51 109 18 . Devin Harris, NJ 18.15 11 4.4 11 1 22 107 30 110 39 113 19 . Jason Kidd, DAL 14.75 33 2.6 26 1.9 16 104 35 103 6 116 20 . Jrue Holiday, PHI 15.92 27 3.5 17 1.1 21 104 35 106 16 116 20 . Mike Conley, MEM 15.5 30 3.3 18 1.9 16 107 30 107 22 116 20 . Earl Boykins, MIL 16.8 19 1.4 35 1 22 105 34 105 9 119 23 . Darren Collison, IND 16.77 20 3.1 19 -1 34 107 30 106 16 119 23 . Ty Lawson, DEN 16.74 21 2.8 24 2 15 115 11 112 51 122 25 . Raymond Felton, NY 17.75 13 5.3 8 -1 34 109 24 111 46 125 26 . Brandon Jennings, MIL 16.89 18 2.6 26 -1.5 39 103 37 104 7 127 27 . Kyle Lowry, HOU 15.24 31 2.7 25 1.2 20 110 21 109 32 129 28 . Luke Ridnour, MIN 16.26 24 3 20 0.1 28 118 6 113 54 132 29 . Eddie House, MIA 13.33 38 0.5 42 -3.2 48 116 7 104 7 142 30 . Ramon Sessions, CLE 17.56 15 3 20 0.7 26 108 27 114 58 146 31 . Daniel Gibson, CLE 15.08 32 2 31 2.4 13 109 24 113 54 154 32 . Mike Bibby, ATL 12.45 43 0.9 39 -0.5 32 113 13 108 28 155 33 . Gary Neal, SA 13.05 41 0.8 40 -2.5 44 109 24 106 16 165 34 . Tyreke Evans, SAC 14.28 35 2.1 30 -0.1 30 96 54 107 22 171 35 . Baron Davis, LAC 15.61 29 1.7 33 -3 46 102 40 109 32 180 36 . John Wall, WSH 15.72 28 2.4 28 -2.9 45 99 50 109 32 183 37 . Gilbert Arenas, ORL 12.91 42 1 38 0.1 29 95 54 107 22 185 38 . Aaron Brooks, HOU 16.02 26 1.2 36 -2 43 108 27 113 54 186 39 . Earl Watson, UTAH 11.35 51 0.1 50 1.7 18 102 40 108 28 187 40 . Patrick Mills, POR 13.32 39 0.5 42 0.4 27 102 40 110 39 187 40 . Shaun Livingston, CHA 11.5 50 0.2 46 -0.2 31 99 50 106 16 193 42 . Mario Chalmers, MIA 10.57 53 -0.2 54 -3.1 47 102 40 102 4 198 43 . Jordan Farmar, NJ 13.32 39 1.1 37 -1.2 37 100 47 110 39 199 44 . Carlos Arroyo, MIA 10.39 57 -0.3 56 -4 51 111 17 107 22 203 45 . Eric Maynor, OKC 11.8 46 0.2 46 -1.6 40 103 37 110 39 208 46 . C.J. Watson, CHI 10.46 56 -0.2 54 -1.4 38 92 60 101 3 211 47 . Jarrett Jack, NO 11.95 45 0.4 44 -4.3 54 96 54 106 16 213 48 . Jerryd Bayless, TOR 13.5 37 0.8 40 -3.5 49 107 30 114 58 214 49 . Derek Fisher, LAL 9.31 60 -1 63 -4.5 56 103 37 105 9 225 50 . Nate Robinson, BOS 10.9 52 0 52 -7.6 62 99 50 105 9 225 50 . T.J. Ford, IND 10.15 58 -0.3 56 -3.6 50 92 60 105 9 233 52 . Jose Juan Barea, DAL 11.54 48 0.2 46 -4.3 54 97 53 109 32 233 52 . Eugene Jeter, SAC 11.52 49 0.1 50 -1.9 42 100 47 111 46 234 54 . Mo Williams, CLE 13.99 36 1.5 34 -4.2 52 96 54 114 58 234 54 . Will Bynum, DET 11.97 44 0.2 46 -4.2 52 102 40 113 54 236 56 . Ronnie Price, UTAH 7.8 61 -0.8 60 -1.8 41 91 63 108 28 253 57 . Eric Bledsoe, LAC 10.5 55 -0.3 56 -5.1 57 94 59 109 32 259 58 . Steve Blake, LAL 7.6 62 -1.4 65 -8.8 64 102 40 109 32 263 59 . Goran Dragic, PHX 11.74 47 0.3 45 -7.4 61 95 54 114 58 265 60 . Ishmael Smith, HOU 9.32 59 -0.3 56 -6.5 59 92 60 110 39 273 61 . Chris Duhon, ORL 6.16 64 -1.1 64 -6.6 60 90 64 107 22 274 62 . Sebastian Telfair, MIN 10.52 54 -0.1 53 -5.5 58 101 47 115 62 274 62 . Acie Law, GS 6.72 63 -0.8 60 -8.2 63 102 40 116 64 290 64 . Jonny Flynn, MIN 4.77 65 -0.9 62 -10.2 65 80 65 115 62 319 65

I'll be posting my observations on this list in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts on the list by posting a comment below.

Phoenix Suns at the Quarter Pole

After losing Amare Stoudemire and adding a number of interesting parts, we didn't know what to expect from the Suns. So far they've been up and down. They have really good wins on the road at Utah, Atlanta and Los Angeles (over the Lakers). Their two worst losses are at Charlotte and home against Memphis. To their defense, Phoenix has played the seventh most difficult schedule in the NBA.

But ultimately if they hope to make the playoffs the Suns have to start winning more games. They are currently 11-12 and one game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. As competitive as the West is, it's hard to see a .500 team getting in. Before the season I predicted the Suns would be left out of the playoffs with a 48-34 record.

So what's worked for Phoenix and where do they need help?  Let's take a look at the statistics to see what they tell us.

Photo source: Ms. Phoenix

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.9 (3rd in the NBA) [115.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 113.4 (30th) [110.2 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.5 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.1 (1st) [110.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 109.5 (30th) [105.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.5 (8th) [95.3 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Jason Richardson
Offensive Rating: 116 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 114 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.6)

Channing Frye
Offensive Rating: 115 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (108)
PER: 12.7 (15.0)

Steve Nash
Offensive Rating: 120 (121)
Defensive Rating: 116 (114)
PER: 23.7 (21.6)

Grant Hill
Offensive Rating: 119 (114)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110)
PER: 18.0 (14.0)

Hedo Turkoglu
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 13.4 (13.3)

Hakim Warrick
Offensive Rating: 124 (110)
Defensive Rating: 115 (106)
PER: 19.1 (15.6)

Jared Dudley
Offensive Rating: 108 (124)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 12.2 (13.6)

Goran Dragic
Offensive Rating: 93 (110)
Defensive Rating: 113 (112)
PER: 12.7 (14.8)

Josh Childress
Offensive Rating: 117 (127 in 2007-08)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110 in 2007-08)
PER: 14.1 (17.8)

Robin Lopez
Offensive Rating: 100 (123)
Defensive Rating: 113 (110)
PER: 11.2 (17.6)

When looking at the team statistics you quickly notice that the Suns are not as good offensively as they were last year and have struggled mightily on defense.  Their 111.9 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but is 3.4 points lower than 2009-10.  That would be okay if their defense was solid, but it's not.  Phoenix is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions.  A big problem is that they are last in the league in opponent field goal percentage defense.  They are allowing opponents to make 42.2% of their shots.  That is three percentage points worse than last season.  The problem is most apparent in the paint where the Suns are allowing opponents to score 48.6 points per game, most in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns and Steve Nash are basically synonomous at this point.  And Nash is bringing it again in his 15th year.  His PER is currently above what it was in his two MVP seasons.  Most of his numbers are within reach of career highs.  For the most part he hasn't dropped off a bit.  The only exception is three-point shooting.  Right now he's at a career-worst 32.7%.  Also, in a common trend among the Suns, his Defensive Rating has fallen to a career worst.

Richardson has definitely embraced the Suns fast-paced offense.  He's having the best season of his career by PER.  At 44.0% he's shooting better behind the arc than he ever has.  His turnover rate is at a career low.  The only negative is that, like Nash, his Defensive Rating is the worst it's been in his career.  That includes his go-go years in Golden State.

With Lopez hurt, Frye is logging more minutes per game than he has before in his career.  His level of productivity seems to alternate every year and so far in 2010 he's on the down side.  His rebounds and assists per 36 minutes are both at career lows.  His three-point shooting has dropped from 43.9% last season to 38.6% so far in 2010.  On the good side, he's averaging a career high in blocks per 36 minutes.

Hill has been tremendous and is having his most productive season in five years.  Much of that stems from a career high field goal percentage of 53.6.  His turnover rate is currently the lowest it's been in any one season in his career.  But, like the others, he's posting the worst Defensive Rating of his career.

Phoenix picked up Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress with the hopes that they would make up for the loss of Stoudemire.  Turkoglu has played the most and been the least productive.  His performance has only been slightly better than his bad year last season in Toronto.  On a positive note he is shooting a career best 42.4% on threes.  Warrick is having the most productive year of his career.  That's mostly due to his 55.5% shooting, which is up 7.3% from 2009-10.  Childress has yet to find the form he had three years ago before leaving for Europe.  One thing that hasn't changed is his solid shooting.  He's at 57.0% from the field.

After a season in which they were solid contributors off the bench, both Dudley and Dragic are struggling in 2010.  For Dudley it's three-point shooting that's dragging him down.  He's at 31.1% this season after knocking down 45.8% in 2009-10.  Dragic has been cold from behind the arc as well (30.2%) and has also had a bit of a turnover problem.  He's averaging nearly two more per 36 minutes than he did last season.

Lopez showed a lot of promise last year while starting 31 games and posting a 17.6 PER.  A knee injury has limited him to only nine games and when he's been on the floor he's had trouble putting the ball in the hoop.  His field goal shooting has plummeted to 44.0% from 58.8% last season.

Nobody on the Suns is immune from defensive issues.  Every rotation player is posting the worst Defensive Rating of their career.  Clearly the team defense needs to be improved if Phoenix hopes to make the playoffs.  It would also help if they can get the rotation settled and have the dynamic bench impact that they've had in recent years.

Why do you think the Suns have been so bad defensively this year?  What can they do to make a run for the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Phoenix Suns - Better or Worse

Following a very good regular season in which they earned the number three seed in the Western Conference, the Suns had an excellent postseason, beating the Blazers in six games then sweeping the Spurs before falling to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in six.  But the offseason brought a lot of change to Phoenix with Amare Stoudamire signing with the Knicks and the Suns then orchestrating some free agent signings and trades.  Will all the summer moves result in winter success?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: kevindooley

Point Guard
2009 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)

Nash was spectacular as usual last season.  The only reason he didn't rank among the top three point guards in my rankings is because his Defensive Rating was 62nd.  Dragic was a solid backup in his second year in the NBA.  I think Nash will start to slide this season resulting in the loss of two wins while the development of Dragic will get one of those wins back.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Leandro Barbosa (#34 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Josh Childress (Played in Europe)

Richardson was good in the '09-'10 campaign but suffered a little bit of a drop off.  Childress is coming back to the NBA after a two year run in Europe.  He was a very productive role player for the Hawks before going overseas.  I project that Richardson will slide back slightly more leading to one loss while Childress will not be as productive as Barbosa was last season resulting in another loss.  Net losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)

The Suns got consistently excellent production from the small forward position last season.  One of the keys was three-point shooting, which is always important in a Steve Nash-run offense.  Hill shot 44% from behind the arc while Dudley shot 46%.  I've got Phoenix losing two games due to a drop off in Hill's play while staying even with Dudley.  I just think he reached his ceiling last year.  Net losses - 2.

Power Forward
2009 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3)
2010 - Hedo Turkoglu (#32 SF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)

Stoudamire was very good for most of last season and even better in the playoffs.  Replacing him will be a very tough task.  The Suns are likely to use a mix of players at the four.  Turkoglu, who completely flamed out in Toronto, could get the bulk of the minutes if he shows he can guard other power forwards.  Regardless, Phoenix will not be able to match the production they got from Stoudamire last season.  Net losses - 4.

Center
2009 - Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5), Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5)
2010 - Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5), Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5)

Both Frye and Lopez put in good minutes for the Suns in the '09-'10 campaign.  Technically Frye started more games than Lopez.  They are both back in 2010 with Lopez the clear starter and Frye offering versatility off the pine.  Development from both players will lead to an improvement in production at the five.  Net wins - 3.

Overall
From the beginning of the season the Suns will be trying to make up for the loss of Stoudamire and fighting the effects of age.  They led the NBA in field-goal percentage and three-point field-goal percentage last season.  They will have to shoot just as efficiently this season if they hope to come close to matching last year's record, which was 54-28.  Looking at the season ahead, as highlighted above I've got them adding three wins at the center position, but losing four at power forward, two at small forward, two at shooting guard and one at point guard.

In the final verdict the Suns are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season with a 48-34 record.

Let me know why you think I'm wrong or right by posting a comment below.

NBA Point Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA point guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Today I'll share my thoughts on the data.

• There are clear differences between the levels of point guard quality.  The top levels seem to come in groups of four to five.  For instance, based on the cumulative numbers, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd are clearly at the top level.  Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Luke Ridnour make up the second level.  Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, Lou Williams and Baron Davis make up the third level.  After that they are bunched up much more.
• Rondo didn't seem to get a lot of notice until the playoffs, but it's clear from these rankings that he deserved it for his excellent regular season.  I was surprised that he finished just one point below Deron Williams.
• Other guys that surprised me with how high they are ranked - Luke Ridnour, Lou Williams, Ty Lawson, Jason Williams, Kyle Lowry and George Hill.
• I was surprised at how low these players ranked - Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Tony Parker, Brandon Jennings and Darren Collison.  In fairness to Evans, Jennings and Collison, it was their rookie season.
• Deron Williams did not rank first in any of the five evaluation methods but still ranked first overall.  Rondo ranked first in both the Defensive Rating and WARP.  Paul was first in PER and Offensive Rating, but hurt by his 28th ranking in the Defensive Rating.  Nash was first in the Simple Rating and second in PER, Offensive Rating and WARP, but his 62nd ranking in Defensive Rating hurt him.
• I know the Timberwolves already have too many point guards, but their signing of Luke Ridnour could be the steal of free agency.  To get the ninth ranked point guard in the NBA for $16 million over four years is a great deal.  How that affects Johnny Flynn will be very interesting to watch.
• Right now it looks like the Bobcats are taking a real chance at the point.  D.J. Augustin did not have a good year and they lost Raymond Felton, who can probably be labeled as underappreciated based on his #10 ranking.  They also seem to be relying a lot on the hope that newly signed backup Shaun Livingston will start reaching his potential.

What player rankings surprise you the most?