Tuesday, January 11, 2011

NBA Rookies Progress Report - Beyond the 2010 Draft First Round Picks

This is the final entry of my four part series evaluating NBA rookies through the first couple months of the 2010-11 season.  My first post looked at picks 1-10 of the 2010 NBA Draft.  My second post examined the productivity of picks 11-20.  The third post highlighted the early performance of picks 21-30

In this post I'll spotlight those NBA rookies from the second round or previous drafts who have seen solid playing time so far this season.

Photo source: Zereshk
Tiago Splitter - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 27
PER - 15.0
Simple - -6.0
Offensive Rating - 110
Defensive Rating - 103

Splitter did not have the instant impact some expected but has been productive.  He's one of only a handful of rookies with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  He's shooting 50% and averaging 13.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and one block per 36 minutes.  Like many of the other frontline rookies, he is struggling with personal fouls.

Landry Fields - New York Knicks
Games - 36
PER - 14.8
Simple - +6.3
Offensive Rating - 119
Defensive Rating - 108

Nobody could have predicted the heavy contributions this second round pick has provided the Knicks.  Fields is by far the leader in Simple Rating among rookies and like Splitter, he's one of a small number with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  His True Shooting Percentage is second only to Semih Erden among rookies.  He's shooting 37.6% from behind the arc.  His defensive rebounding percentage is second to Anthony Randolph among Knicks.  That's really impressive considering he is an off guard. 

Gary Neal - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 37
PER - 14.0
Simple - -3.1
Offensive Rating - 111
Defensive Rating - 106

Neal has essentially come out of nowhere to be a solid contributor to San Antonio's excellent start.  Maybe the most impressive of Neal's stats is his 7.8% turnover ratio.  That's the best turnover ratio of every Spurs rotation player besides Matt Bonner.  Neal is also averaging 16.9 points per 36 minutes while knocking down 38.9% of his three pointers.

Gary Forbes - Denver Nuggets
Games - 33
PER - 13.7
Simple - -8.0
Offensive Rating - 106
Defensive Rating - 111

Here's another rookie shooting a solid three-point percentage (38.7) who's made some nice contributions to his team.  Forbes ranks ninth among rookies in PER and his 16.6 points per 36 minutes is fourth on the Nuggets.

Omer Asik - Chicago Bulls
Games - 37
PER - 11.4
Simple - -1.8
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 97

In his first year in the NBA after being picked in the second round by Portland in the 2008 draft, Asik has contributed good minutes for Chicago.  His Defensive Rating is stellar, he's shooting 56.5% and he's averaging 9.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative side, he's also averaging 2.3 turnovers and six fouls per 36 minutes.

Eugene Jeter - Sacramento Kings
Games - 22
PER - 11.1
Simple - -0.6
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 111

Jeter honed his game in Europe before coming back to the United States.  He's put in some decent minutes as a backup point guard.  At 38.4% he's struggling to shoot the ball well, but he's also averaging a Kings high 7.5 assists per 36 minutes and his assist rate is better than that of John Wall. 

Semih Erden - Boston Celtics
Games - 26
PER - 10.2
Simple - -11.0
Offensive Rating - 107
Defensive Rating - 101

Injuries in the post have forced the Celtics to use Erden much more than they planned to in the early going of the 2010-11 NBA season.  He hasn't set the world on fire but he has been decent.  On the positive side, he's shooting 59.7% and averaging 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative, he's only pulling down 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes while also turning the ball over 2.1 times and committing 6.2 fouls over that time period.

Nikola Pekovic - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 24
PER - 10.0
Simple - -8.2
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 112

The tag on Pekovic as he came into the NBA was that he was good on offense and unproven on defense.  So far he's struggled on both sides of the floor.  He's shooting just 43.8% while averaging 13.1 points, 8.1 boards, 1.8 blocks and 7.3 fouls per 36 minutes.  He has been an impressive offensive rebounder.  His offensive rebound percentage of 12.3 is third on the Timberwolves and only two percentage points below Kevin Love.

Ish Smith - Houston Rockets
Games - 14
PER - 9.3
Simple -  -8.3
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 110

This is another case of a rookie getting more playing time than expected because of injuries.  Smith does have the best rookie assist ratio.  He's shooting a poor 40% and averaging 2.8 turnovers per 36 minutes.  But, he's also averaging a respectable 6.6 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes.

Timofey Mozgov - New York Knicks
Games - 26
PER - 5.4
Simple - -13.4
Offensive Rating - 79
Defensive Rating - 106

It was odd to see Mozgov starting early in the season for the Knicks because he clearly wasn't ready for that role.  His advanced statistics above are horrid.  More specific breakdowns of his statistics are no better - he's shooting a dreadful 37.3% and averaging 3.6 turnovers and seven fouls per 36 minutes.

When you look at the draftees along with the others in the NBA rookie class of 2010-11 what surprises you most?  Who are the biggest disappointments?  Post a comment and let me know your thoughts.

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