Showing posts with label Timofey Mozgov. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timofey Mozgov. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

NBA Rookies Progress Report - Beyond the 2010 Draft First Round Picks

This is the final entry of my four part series evaluating NBA rookies through the first couple months of the 2010-11 season.  My first post looked at picks 1-10 of the 2010 NBA Draft.  My second post examined the productivity of picks 11-20.  The third post highlighted the early performance of picks 21-30. 

In this post I'll spotlight those NBA rookies from the second round or previous drafts who have seen solid playing time so far this season.

Photo source: Zereshk
Tiago Splitter - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 27
PER - 15.0
Simple - -6.0
Offensive Rating - 110
Defensive Rating - 103

Splitter did not have the instant impact some expected but has been productive.  He's one of only a handful of rookies with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  He's shooting 50% and averaging 13.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and one block per 36 minutes.  Like many of the other frontline rookies, he is struggling with personal fouls.

Landry Fields - New York Knicks
Games - 36
PER - 14.8
Simple - +6.3
Offensive Rating - 119
Defensive Rating - 108

Nobody could have predicted the heavy contributions this second round pick has provided the Knicks.  Fields is by far the leader in Simple Rating among rookies and like Splitter, he's one of a small number with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  His True Shooting Percentage is second only to Semih Erden among rookies.  He's shooting 37.6% from behind the arc.  His defensive rebounding percentage is second to Anthony Randolph among Knicks.  That's really impressive considering he is an off guard. 

Gary Neal - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 37
PER - 14.0
Simple - -3.1
Offensive Rating - 111
Defensive Rating - 106

Neal has essentially come out of nowhere to be a solid contributor to San Antonio's excellent start.  Maybe the most impressive of Neal's stats is his 7.8% turnover ratio.  That's the best turnover ratio of every Spurs rotation player besides Matt Bonner.  Neal is also averaging 16.9 points per 36 minutes while knocking down 38.9% of his three pointers.

Gary Forbes - Denver Nuggets
Games - 33
PER - 13.7
Simple - -8.0
Offensive Rating - 106
Defensive Rating - 111

Here's another rookie shooting a solid three-point percentage (38.7) who's made some nice contributions to his team.  Forbes ranks ninth among rookies in PER and his 16.6 points per 36 minutes is fourth on the Nuggets.

Omer Asik - Chicago Bulls
Games - 37
PER - 11.4
Simple - -1.8
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 97

In his first year in the NBA after being picked in the second round by Portland in the 2008 draft, Asik has contributed good minutes for Chicago.  His Defensive Rating is stellar, he's shooting 56.5% and he's averaging 9.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative side, he's also averaging 2.3 turnovers and six fouls per 36 minutes.

Eugene Jeter - Sacramento Kings
Games - 22
PER - 11.1
Simple - -0.6
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 111

Jeter honed his game in Europe before coming back to the United States.  He's put in some decent minutes as a backup point guard.  At 38.4% he's struggling to shoot the ball well, but he's also averaging a Kings high 7.5 assists per 36 minutes and his assist rate is better than that of John Wall. 

Semih Erden - Boston Celtics
Games - 26
PER - 10.2
Simple - -11.0
Offensive Rating - 107
Defensive Rating - 101

Injuries in the post have forced the Celtics to use Erden much more than they planned to in the early going of the 2010-11 NBA season.  He hasn't set the world on fire but he has been decent.  On the positive side, he's shooting 59.7% and averaging 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative, he's only pulling down 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes while also turning the ball over 2.1 times and committing 6.2 fouls over that time period.

Nikola Pekovic - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 24
PER - 10.0
Simple - -8.2
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 112

The tag on Pekovic as he came into the NBA was that he was good on offense and unproven on defense.  So far he's struggled on both sides of the floor.  He's shooting just 43.8% while averaging 13.1 points, 8.1 boards, 1.8 blocks and 7.3 fouls per 36 minutes.  He has been an impressive offensive rebounder.  His offensive rebound percentage of 12.3 is third on the Timberwolves and only two percentage points below Kevin Love.

Ish Smith - Houston Rockets
Games - 14
PER - 9.3
Simple -  -8.3
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 110

This is another case of a rookie getting more playing time than expected because of injuries.  Smith does have the best rookie assist ratio.  He's shooting a poor 40% and averaging 2.8 turnovers per 36 minutes.  But, he's also averaging a respectable 6.6 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes.

Timofey Mozgov - New York Knicks
Games - 26
PER - 5.4
Simple - -13.4
Offensive Rating - 79
Defensive Rating - 106

It was odd to see Mozgov starting early in the season for the Knicks because he clearly wasn't ready for that role.  His advanced statistics above are horrid.  More specific breakdowns of his statistics are no better - he's shooting a dreadful 37.3% and averaging 3.6 turnovers and seven fouls per 36 minutes.

When you look at the draftees along with the others in the NBA rookie class of 2010-11 what surprises you most?  Who are the biggest disappointments?  Post a comment and let me know your thoughts.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

New York Knicks - Early Season Returns

Photo source: Lordcolus
The Knicks made as many changes to their roster as any team in the NBA.  How have all the moves helped New York?  If you look at the record the answer is - incrementally.  The Knicks were 1-8 in the first nine games of 2009 and have started the 2010/11 season 3-6.

They have a really good win at Chicago but have now lost four in a row.  Let's take a look at the team stats and some advanced individual stats to see what they tell us.

Before that though, I predicted the Knicks would have a 40-42 record.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 103.8 (23rd in the NBA) [107.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 106.8 (17th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -3.0 [-4.0 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.4 (11th) [102.1 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 105.3 (24th) [105.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 98.7 (2nd) [94.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Raymond Felton
Offensive Rating:  114 (107 in 2009)
Defensive Rating:  109 (103)
PER:  18.7 (15.2)

Amare Stoudamire
Offensive Rating: 97 (117 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 16.8 (22.6)

Wilson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (113)
PER: 18.5 (13.7)

Danilo Gallinari
Offensive Rating: 117 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (112)
PER: 14.7 (14.8)

Toney Douglas
Offensive Rating: 107 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (113)
PER: 16.2 (14.9)

Landry Fields
Offensive Rating: 121 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 108
PER: 14.9

Ronny Turiaf
Offensive Rating: 136 (110 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 16.6 (12.6)

Timofey Mozgov
Offensive Rating: 76 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 5.9 (15.2)

Bill Walker
Offensive Rating: 91 (122 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 4.8 (14.6)

The Knicks are playing at a faster pace than last season but their offensive efficiency has gone down.  That is not a recipe for success.  However, they've improved their defensive efficiency by nearly five points per 100 possessions and have increased their efficiency margin to -3 from -4 in 2009/10.

Because of all the roster turnover we cannot quite compare apples to apples as far as individual contributions.  So let's start by taking a look at the new additions.  It is clear that Stoudamire is underperforming his massive contract.  His year over year drop in PER from 22.6 to 16.8 is frightening.  The most obvious culprit - his field-goal shooting percentage has fallen more than 100 points.

The other big offseason acquisition, Felton, has been an excellent contributor.  I ranked him as one of the top 10 point guards in the NBA after last season.  On a less defensively-focused team his Defensive Rating has risen but his Offensive Rating has matched it.  There was uncertainty about his ability to run the up tempo Knicks offense, but he is clearly excelling in the system.

Chandler has been a solid contributor off the bench.  He's raised his PER almost five points from last season and has the second highest PER on the team.  Douglas has authored a nice little jump in his PER as well and has been outstanding in a few games.

The Knicks have to hope that Gallinari has recovered from his early season wrist injury.  Cumulatively over the first nine games, he's been just a guy.  The average PER ranking is 15.0 and he's at 14.7.  The good news is that he's picked up his play over the last two games.  His 35% field-goal shooting percentage is really hurting him.

Fields is starting and his 14.9 PER portrays him as just a guy. But he does have an excellent margin in efficiency, with a +13.  Fellow rookie Mozgov has been pretty awful.

Turiaf is the only piece from the David Lee trade that has contributed in a meaningful way so far.  The hope is that Anthony Randolph, who is now playing, will get into playing shape quickly and start to reach his massive potential even more quickly. 

How would you assess the first nine games of the Knicks season?  What do you hope to see as the season progresses?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.