Showing posts with label Gary Neal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gary Neal. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

NBA Rookies Progress Report - Beyond the 2010 Draft First Round Picks

This is the final entry of my four part series evaluating NBA rookies through the first couple months of the 2010-11 season.  My first post looked at picks 1-10 of the 2010 NBA Draft.  My second post examined the productivity of picks 11-20.  The third post highlighted the early performance of picks 21-30

In this post I'll spotlight those NBA rookies from the second round or previous drafts who have seen solid playing time so far this season.

Photo source: Zereshk
Tiago Splitter - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 27
PER - 15.0
Simple - -6.0
Offensive Rating - 110
Defensive Rating - 103

Splitter did not have the instant impact some expected but has been productive.  He's one of only a handful of rookies with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  He's shooting 50% and averaging 13.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and one block per 36 minutes.  Like many of the other frontline rookies, he is struggling with personal fouls.

Landry Fields - New York Knicks
Games - 36
PER - 14.8
Simple - +6.3
Offensive Rating - 119
Defensive Rating - 108

Nobody could have predicted the heavy contributions this second round pick has provided the Knicks.  Fields is by far the leader in Simple Rating among rookies and like Splitter, he's one of a small number with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  His True Shooting Percentage is second only to Semih Erden among rookies.  He's shooting 37.6% from behind the arc.  His defensive rebounding percentage is second to Anthony Randolph among Knicks.  That's really impressive considering he is an off guard. 

Gary Neal - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 37
PER - 14.0
Simple - -3.1
Offensive Rating - 111
Defensive Rating - 106

Neal has essentially come out of nowhere to be a solid contributor to San Antonio's excellent start.  Maybe the most impressive of Neal's stats is his 7.8% turnover ratio.  That's the best turnover ratio of every Spurs rotation player besides Matt Bonner.  Neal is also averaging 16.9 points per 36 minutes while knocking down 38.9% of his three pointers.

Gary Forbes - Denver Nuggets
Games - 33
PER - 13.7
Simple - -8.0
Offensive Rating - 106
Defensive Rating - 111

Here's another rookie shooting a solid three-point percentage (38.7) who's made some nice contributions to his team.  Forbes ranks ninth among rookies in PER and his 16.6 points per 36 minutes is fourth on the Nuggets.

Omer Asik - Chicago Bulls
Games - 37
PER - 11.4
Simple - -1.8
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 97

In his first year in the NBA after being picked in the second round by Portland in the 2008 draft, Asik has contributed good minutes for Chicago.  His Defensive Rating is stellar, he's shooting 56.5% and he's averaging 9.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative side, he's also averaging 2.3 turnovers and six fouls per 36 minutes.

Eugene Jeter - Sacramento Kings
Games - 22
PER - 11.1
Simple - -0.6
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 111

Jeter honed his game in Europe before coming back to the United States.  He's put in some decent minutes as a backup point guard.  At 38.4% he's struggling to shoot the ball well, but he's also averaging a Kings high 7.5 assists per 36 minutes and his assist rate is better than that of John Wall. 

Semih Erden - Boston Celtics
Games - 26
PER - 10.2
Simple - -11.0
Offensive Rating - 107
Defensive Rating - 101

Injuries in the post have forced the Celtics to use Erden much more than they planned to in the early going of the 2010-11 NBA season.  He hasn't set the world on fire but he has been decent.  On the positive side, he's shooting 59.7% and averaging 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative, he's only pulling down 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes while also turning the ball over 2.1 times and committing 6.2 fouls over that time period.

Nikola Pekovic - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 24
PER - 10.0
Simple - -8.2
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 112

The tag on Pekovic as he came into the NBA was that he was good on offense and unproven on defense.  So far he's struggled on both sides of the floor.  He's shooting just 43.8% while averaging 13.1 points, 8.1 boards, 1.8 blocks and 7.3 fouls per 36 minutes.  He has been an impressive offensive rebounder.  His offensive rebound percentage of 12.3 is third on the Timberwolves and only two percentage points below Kevin Love.

Ish Smith - Houston Rockets
Games - 14
PER - 9.3
Simple -  -8.3
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 110

This is another case of a rookie getting more playing time than expected because of injuries.  Smith does have the best rookie assist ratio.  He's shooting a poor 40% and averaging 2.8 turnovers per 36 minutes.  But, he's also averaging a respectable 6.6 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes.

Timofey Mozgov - New York Knicks
Games - 26
PER - 5.4
Simple - -13.4
Offensive Rating - 79
Defensive Rating - 106

It was odd to see Mozgov starting early in the season for the Knicks because he clearly wasn't ready for that role.  His advanced statistics above are horrid.  More specific breakdowns of his statistics are no better - he's shooting a dreadful 37.3% and averaging 3.6 turnovers and seven fouls per 36 minutes.

When you look at the draftees along with the others in the NBA rookie class of 2010-11 what surprises you most?  Who are the biggest disappointments?  Post a comment and let me know your thoughts.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

San Antonio Spurs at the Quarter Pole

The Spurs have started the 2010-11 NBA season with a franchise record 20 wins in 23 games.  With their spectacular win-loss record, San Antonio has been an early season NBA surprise.  They currently have the best record in the NBA, with impressive road victories at Oklahoma City, Utah and New Orleans, and solid home wins over Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta.

What's been the key to the Spurs hot start?  Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.

But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.


Photo source: WDPG share

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)

Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)

Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)

Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)

George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)

DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)

Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)

Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3

Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)

Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9

The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense.  Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA.  Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA.  One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting.  They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10.  On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1.  That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.

After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms.  He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career.  Maybe it was Eva.

Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10.  He's following that up with an even better season.  Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10.  He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.

Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs.  At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career.  A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.

What a difference a year makes for Jefferson.  After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him.  He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes.  He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.

The career arc of George Hill continues to rise.  He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010.  He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.

Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit.  His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season.  On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.

The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench.  The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly.  He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting.  Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie.  He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range.  Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes.  Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.

It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now.  But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket.  Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score.  The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense.  That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.

What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.