NBA Rookies Progress Report - Beyond the 2010 Draft First Round Picks

This is the final entry of my four part series evaluating NBA rookies through the first couple months of the 2010-11 season.  My first post looked at picks 1-10 of the 2010 NBA Draft.  My second post examined the productivity of picks 11-20.  The third post highlighted the early performance of picks 21-30. 

In this post I'll spotlight those NBA rookies from the second round or previous drafts who have seen solid playing time so far this season.

Photo source: Zereshk

Tiago Splitter - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 27
PER - 15.0
Simple - -6.0
Offensive Rating - 110
Defensive Rating - 103

Splitter did not have the instant impact some expected but has been productive.  He's one of only a handful of rookies with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  He's shooting 50% and averaging 13.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and one block per 36 minutes.  Like many of the other frontline rookies, he is struggling with personal fouls.

Landry Fields - New York Knicks
Games - 36
PER - 14.8
Simple - +6.3
Offensive Rating - 119
Defensive Rating - 108

Nobody could have predicted the heavy contributions this second round pick has provided the Knicks.  Fields is by far the leader in Simple Rating among rookies and like Splitter, he's one of a small number with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  His True Shooting Percentage is second only to Semih Erden among rookies.  He's shooting 37.6% from behind the arc.  His defensive rebounding percentage is second to Anthony Randolph among Knicks.  That's really impressive considering he is an off guard. 

Gary Neal - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 37
PER - 14.0
Simple - -3.1
Offensive Rating - 111
Defensive Rating - 106

Neal has essentially come out of nowhere to be a solid contributor to San Antonio's excellent start.  Maybe the most impressive of Neal's stats is his 7.8% turnover ratio.  That's the best turnover ratio of every Spurs rotation player besides Matt Bonner.  Neal is also averaging 16.9 points per 36 minutes while knocking down 38.9% of his three pointers.

Gary Forbes - Denver Nuggets
Games - 33
PER - 13.7
Simple - -8.0
Offensive Rating - 106
Defensive Rating - 111

Here's another rookie shooting a solid three-point percentage (38.7) who's made some nice contributions to his team.  Forbes ranks ninth among rookies in PER and his 16.6 points per 36 minutes is fourth on the Nuggets.

Omer Asik - Chicago Bulls
Games - 37
PER - 11.4
Simple - -1.8
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 97

In his first year in the NBA after being picked in the second round by Portland in the 2008 draft, Asik has contributed good minutes for Chicago.  His Defensive Rating is stellar, he's shooting 56.5% and he's averaging 9.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative side, he's also averaging 2.3 turnovers and six fouls per 36 minutes.

Eugene Jeter - Sacramento Kings
Games - 22
PER - 11.1
Simple - -0.6
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 111

Jeter honed his game in Europe before coming back to the United States.  He's put in some decent minutes as a backup point guard.  At 38.4% he's struggling to shoot the ball well, but he's also averaging a Kings high 7.5 assists per 36 minutes and his assist rate is better than that of John Wall. 

Semih Erden - Boston Celtics
Games - 26
PER - 10.2
Simple - -11.0
Offensive Rating - 107
Defensive Rating - 101

Injuries in the post have forced the Celtics to use Erden much more than they planned to in the early going of the 2010-11 NBA season.  He hasn't set the world on fire but he has been decent.  On the positive side, he's shooting 59.7% and averaging 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative, he's only pulling down 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes while also turning the ball over 2.1 times and committing 6.2 fouls over that time period.

Nikola Pekovic - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 24
PER - 10.0
Simple - -8.2
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 112

The tag on Pekovic as he came into the NBA was that he was good on offense and unproven on defense.  So far he's struggled on both sides of the floor.  He's shooting just 43.8% while averaging 13.1 points, 8.1 boards, 1.8 blocks and 7.3 fouls per 36 minutes.  He has been an impressive offensive rebounder.  His offensive rebound percentage of 12.3 is third on the Timberwolves and only two percentage points below Kevin Love.

Ish Smith - Houston Rockets
Games - 14
PER - 9.3
Simple -  -8.3
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 110

This is another case of a rookie getting more playing time than expected because of injuries.  Smith does have the best rookie assist ratio.  He's shooting a poor 40% and averaging 2.8 turnovers per 36 minutes.  But, he's also averaging a respectable 6.6 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes.

Timofey Mozgov - New York Knicks
Games - 26
PER - 5.4
Simple - -13.4
Offensive Rating - 79
Defensive Rating - 106

It was odd to see Mozgov starting early in the season for the Knicks because he clearly wasn't ready for that role.  His advanced statistics above are horrid.  More specific breakdowns of his statistics are no better - he's shooting a dreadful 37.3% and averaging 3.6 turnovers and seven fouls per 36 minutes.

When you look at the draftees along with the others in the NBA rookie class of 2010-11 what surprises you most?  Who are the biggest disappointments?  Post a comment and let me know your thoughts.

Chicago Bulls - Early Season Returns

Without key acquisition Carlos Boozer, the Bulls have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 7-4 record.  The only loss that you may call a bad one would be to the New York Knicks in the fourth game at home.  On the positive side, Chicago has some quality wins at home over Portland, Denver and Golden State, and on the road in Dallas.

Photo source: keith011764

Let's jump into some of the advanced statistics through the first 11 games to see what's been keying their wins and who may need to pick up their game as the season continues.

For the record, I predicted the Bulls would finish the season at 50-32.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 106.7 (16th in the NBA) [103.5 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 103.2 (8th) [105.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.5 [-1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [97.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.3 (12th) [99.1 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.3 (13th) [93.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Luol Deng
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 14.2 (16.1)

Joakim Noah
Offensive Rating: 118 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 19.9 (17.9)

Derrick Rose
Offensive Rating: 110 (106)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 22.6 (18.6)

Taj Gibson
Offensive Rating: 110 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 17.9 (13.8)

Keith Bogans
Offensive Rating: 105 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 9.1 (7.7)

Kyle Korver
Offensive Rating: 124 (116)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 15.5 (13.9)

Ronnie Brewer
Offensive Rating: 105 (110)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 13.6 (12.5)

Omer Asik
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 102
PER: 9.0

C.J. Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (112)
PER: 13.8 (13.8)

When you delve into the early season statistics for the Bulls there is a lot to like.  They've improved their offensive efficiency from 103.5 in 2009/10 to 106.7 and their defensive efficiency from 105.3 to 103.2.  This has resulted in a very impressive jump in their differential from -1.8 to 3.5.  I haven't researched it yet, but I doubt there is another team in the NBA that has forced such a dramatic improvement.

The continued development of Chicago's key young players shows you exactly why many NBA followers were pointing to this franchise as one of the best positioned.  While he's only played the third most minutes on the team, Rose is where much of this talk starts.  His 22.6 PER has him ranked 16th overall in the NBA at the moment and is an excellent four point improvement over last season. Two stats jump out at me in regards to Rose - his three-point shooting (he's taking three more per game this season and shooting 34%, up from 27%) and his assists (up to 8.5 per game from 6.0 per game last season).

Noah is the other player that was lauded for his potential over the summer.  Well he's bringing it again in 2010.  He's bumped his PER up, by two points to 19.9, and improved both his Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  After a bit of a drop in shooting percentage last season he's boomeranged back up to 53%.

Second-year man Gibson has also stepped his game up nicely while filling in for Boozer.  His PER has jumped 4.1 points and his efficiency differential is up from +1 to +9.

On the down side, Deng is averaging the most minutes per game at 38.6 but he has not been efficient.  His PER is as low as it's ever been, tied with his rookie year number at this point and below that of the average player (15.0).  His field-goal shooting is an awful 41%, his free-throw shooting percentage, steals and rebounds are all down and his turnovers are up.

The fact that Bogans is getting so many minutes is scary for the Bulls.  His PER is a very poor 9.1.  Of course, they were hoping Brewer would take hold of the off guard position. He has not done that quite yet, mostly because he does not have a three-point shot that can spread the defense.  Korver does and he's showing some nice improvement over last year's numbers.  At 15.5 he's putting up the highest PER of his career.

Watson has struggled with his shot in small minutes, but is making up for it by creating more shots for teammates.

The key to the long term success of the Bulls is certaintly to get Boozer back and work him into rotation.  His game will be a great complement to Rose and Noah and should position the Bulls as a real threat to the Eastern Conference crown.  If Gibson can continue his strong play while Deng raises his shooting percentage then there is no doubt Chicago can contend.

What are your observations on the Bulls so far in 2010?  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.