Chicago Bulls - Early Season Returns

Without key acquisition Carlos Boozer, the Bulls have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 7-4 record.  The only loss that you may call a bad one would be to the New York Knicks in the fourth game at home.  On the positive side, Chicago has some quality wins at home over Portland, Denver and Golden State, and on the road in Dallas.

Photo source: keith011764

Let's jump into some of the advanced statistics through the first 11 games to see what's been keying their wins and who may need to pick up their game as the season continues.

For the record, I predicted the Bulls would finish the season at 50-32.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 106.7 (16th in the NBA) [103.5 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 103.2 (8th) [105.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.5 [-1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [97.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.3 (12th) [99.1 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.3 (13th) [93.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Luol Deng
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 14.2 (16.1)

Joakim Noah
Offensive Rating: 118 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 19.9 (17.9)

Derrick Rose
Offensive Rating: 110 (106)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 22.6 (18.6)

Taj Gibson
Offensive Rating: 110 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 17.9 (13.8)

Keith Bogans
Offensive Rating: 105 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 9.1 (7.7)

Kyle Korver
Offensive Rating: 124 (116)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 15.5 (13.9)

Ronnie Brewer
Offensive Rating: 105 (110)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 13.6 (12.5)

Omer Asik
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 102
PER: 9.0

C.J. Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (112)
PER: 13.8 (13.8)

When you delve into the early season statistics for the Bulls there is a lot to like.  They've improved their offensive efficiency from 103.5 in 2009/10 to 106.7 and their defensive efficiency from 105.3 to 103.2.  This has resulted in a very impressive jump in their differential from -1.8 to 3.5.  I haven't researched it yet, but I doubt there is another team in the NBA that has forced such a dramatic improvement.

The continued development of Chicago's key young players shows you exactly why many NBA followers were pointing to this franchise as one of the best positioned.  While he's only played the third most minutes on the team, Rose is where much of this talk starts.  His 22.6 PER has him ranked 16th overall in the NBA at the moment and is an excellent four point improvement over last season. Two stats jump out at me in regards to Rose - his three-point shooting (he's taking three more per game this season and shooting 34%, up from 27%) and his assists (up to 8.5 per game from 6.0 per game last season).

Noah is the other player that was lauded for his potential over the summer.  Well he's bringing it again in 2010.  He's bumped his PER up, by two points to 19.9, and improved both his Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  After a bit of a drop in shooting percentage last season he's boomeranged back up to 53%.

Second-year man Gibson has also stepped his game up nicely while filling in for Boozer.  His PER has jumped 4.1 points and his efficiency differential is up from +1 to +9.

On the down side, Deng is averaging the most minutes per game at 38.6 but he has not been efficient.  His PER is as low as it's ever been, tied with his rookie year number at this point and below that of the average player (15.0).  His field-goal shooting is an awful 41%, his free-throw shooting percentage, steals and rebounds are all down and his turnovers are up.

The fact that Bogans is getting so many minutes is scary for the Bulls.  His PER is a very poor 9.1.  Of course, they were hoping Brewer would take hold of the off guard position. He has not done that quite yet, mostly because he does not have a three-point shot that can spread the defense.  Korver does and he's showing some nice improvement over last year's numbers.  At 15.5 he's putting up the highest PER of his career.

Watson has struggled with his shot in small minutes, but is making up for it by creating more shots for teammates.

The key to the long term success of the Bulls is certaintly to get Boozer back and work him into rotation.  His game will be a great complement to Rose and Noah and should position the Bulls as a real threat to the Eastern Conference crown.  If Gibson can continue his strong play while Deng raises his shooting percentage then there is no doubt Chicago can contend.

What are your observations on the Bulls so far in 2010?  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Chicago Bulls - Better or Worse?

After a wild season in which they won 10 of their last 14 games to salvage a playoff spot after losing 10 in row to almost give it away, the Bulls went into the offseason with the money to make a splash and attractive pieces already in place. They made the moves they needed to in order to dump salary but in the end they were unable to bring in a top two or three player. They did "settle" for Carlos Boozer, who is a pretty good consolation prize. Unfortunately it was announced yesterday that he broke his hand and will miss around eight weeks. How will the Bulls fare in the 2010-2011 season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: BrentDPayne

Point Guard
2009 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), Jannero Pargo (#60 PG, Below level)
2010 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)

Rose was ranked among the top half of point guards last season and should move into the top 10 this season. The signing of Watson could prove to be the best under the radar move of the offseason.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kirk Hinrich (#39 SG, Level 7), Ronald Murray (#54 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)

Chicago upgraded the two guard position at both starter and backup. Korver is coming off a sneaky good season. If he can stay healthy he'll add an important three point shooting dimension to the offense.

Small Forward
2009 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)

This is the one position where the two-deep will not change from last season.

Power Forward
2009 - Taj Gibson (#41 PF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Taj Gibson (#42 PF, Level 7)

Boozer gives the Bulls an impactful improvement at the four, but that will be tempered a bit by the injury.

Center
2009 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)
2010 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Kurt Thomas (#50 C, Level 9)

Now that he's gotten his extension, it is important that Noah takes another step forward in his development. They may miss the versatility of Miller, but Thomas is a solid backup.

Overall
Although they did not get LeBron or D Wade, the Bulls made a lot of solid moves to improve this offseason. If the new pieces can gel with the existing talent, Chicago should win the Central Division and earn a home playoff series or two.

Last season the Bulls finished with a 41-41 record. Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them picking up three wins at point guard, three wins at shooting guard and three wins at power forward (would have been five without the Boozer injury) while staying even at small forward and center.

In the final verdict the Bulls are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 50-32.

Does that prediction sound about right or do you think I'm off? Do you like the moves the Bulls made in the offseason? Post a comment below and let me know your thoughts.