NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

It's been a great year so far for point guards in the NBA. Just try to pick one to start on the Western Conference All Star team. You've got Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker who are all having spectacular seasons.

Who's leading the NBA point guard pack in production? The answer is below. You can find my ranking process on my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.  And, if you are interested, Deron Williams was the top-rated point guard for the 2009-10 season.

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final Rank . Chris Paul, NO 25.55 1 11 1 12.5 2 125 1 99 1 6 1 . Derrick Rose, CHI 23.13 5 9.4 4 7.1 4 111 17 102 4 34 2 . Tony Parker, SA 20.97 6 6.9 6 4 7 114 12 105 9 40 3 . Rajon Rondo, BOS 19.6 8 4.8 9 9 3 110 21 100 2 43 4 . Andre Miller, POR 19.07 9 5.5 7 6.8 5 112 14 107 22 57 5 . Deron Williams, UTAH 23.44 4 9.9 2 4.1 6 120 3 111 46 61 6 . Russell Westbrook, OKC 24.15 2 9.9 2 2.9 12 110 21 108 28 65 7 . Steve Nash, PHX 24.02 3 8.1 5 15.8 1 123 2 116 64 75 8 . Stephen Curry, GS 19.74 7 4.7 10 3.5 8 112 14 111 46 85 9 . George Hill, SA 14.53 34 1.8 32 3.3 11 116 7 105 9 93 10 . Shannon Brown, LAL 16.66 23 2.3 29 3.5 8 111 17 106 16 93 10 . Jose Calderon, TOR 17.95 12 3.7 16 2.4 13 116 7 112 51 99 12 . D.J. Augustin, CHA 16.69 22 3.9 13 0.8 24 119 5 110 39 103 13 . Jameer Nelson, ORL 16.09 25 2.9 22 -1 34 112 14 105 9 104 14 . Lou Williams, PHI 17.58 14 2.9 22 3.4 10 108 27 109 32 105 15 . Beno Udrih, SAC 16.95 17 3.9 13 -0.8 33 120 3 110 39 105 15 . Chauncey Billups, DEN 17.46 16 3.8 15 0.8 24 116 7 111 46 108 17 . Rodney Stuckey, DET 18.31 10 4.3 12 1.6 19 111 17 112 51 109 18 . Devin Harris, NJ 18.15 11 4.4 11 1 22 107 30 110 39 113 19 . Jason Kidd, DAL 14.75 33 2.6 26 1.9 16 104 35 103 6 116 20 . Jrue Holiday, PHI 15.92 27 3.5 17 1.1 21 104 35 106 16 116 20 . Mike Conley, MEM 15.5 30 3.3 18 1.9 16 107 30 107 22 116 20 . Earl Boykins, MIL 16.8 19 1.4 35 1 22 105 34 105 9 119 23 . Darren Collison, IND 16.77 20 3.1 19 -1 34 107 30 106 16 119 23 . Ty Lawson, DEN 16.74 21 2.8 24 2 15 115 11 112 51 122 25 . Raymond Felton, NY 17.75 13 5.3 8 -1 34 109 24 111 46 125 26 . Brandon Jennings, MIL 16.89 18 2.6 26 -1.5 39 103 37 104 7 127 27 . Kyle Lowry, HOU 15.24 31 2.7 25 1.2 20 110 21 109 32 129 28 . Luke Ridnour, MIN 16.26 24 3 20 0.1 28 118 6 113 54 132 29 . Eddie House, MIA 13.33 38 0.5 42 -3.2 48 116 7 104 7 142 30 . Ramon Sessions, CLE 17.56 15 3 20 0.7 26 108 27 114 58 146 31 . Daniel Gibson, CLE 15.08 32 2 31 2.4 13 109 24 113 54 154 32 . Mike Bibby, ATL 12.45 43 0.9 39 -0.5 32 113 13 108 28 155 33 . Gary Neal, SA 13.05 41 0.8 40 -2.5 44 109 24 106 16 165 34 . Tyreke Evans, SAC 14.28 35 2.1 30 -0.1 30 96 54 107 22 171 35 . Baron Davis, LAC 15.61 29 1.7 33 -3 46 102 40 109 32 180 36 . John Wall, WSH 15.72 28 2.4 28 -2.9 45 99 50 109 32 183 37 . Gilbert Arenas, ORL 12.91 42 1 38 0.1 29 95 54 107 22 185 38 . Aaron Brooks, HOU 16.02 26 1.2 36 -2 43 108 27 113 54 186 39 . Earl Watson, UTAH 11.35 51 0.1 50 1.7 18 102 40 108 28 187 40 . Patrick Mills, POR 13.32 39 0.5 42 0.4 27 102 40 110 39 187 40 . Shaun Livingston, CHA 11.5 50 0.2 46 -0.2 31 99 50 106 16 193 42 . Mario Chalmers, MIA 10.57 53 -0.2 54 -3.1 47 102 40 102 4 198 43 . Jordan Farmar, NJ 13.32 39 1.1 37 -1.2 37 100 47 110 39 199 44 . Carlos Arroyo, MIA 10.39 57 -0.3 56 -4 51 111 17 107 22 203 45 . Eric Maynor, OKC 11.8 46 0.2 46 -1.6 40 103 37 110 39 208 46 . C.J. Watson, CHI 10.46 56 -0.2 54 -1.4 38 92 60 101 3 211 47 . Jarrett Jack, NO 11.95 45 0.4 44 -4.3 54 96 54 106 16 213 48 . Jerryd Bayless, TOR 13.5 37 0.8 40 -3.5 49 107 30 114 58 214 49 . Derek Fisher, LAL 9.31 60 -1 63 -4.5 56 103 37 105 9 225 50 . Nate Robinson, BOS 10.9 52 0 52 -7.6 62 99 50 105 9 225 50 . T.J. Ford, IND 10.15 58 -0.3 56 -3.6 50 92 60 105 9 233 52 . Jose Juan Barea, DAL 11.54 48 0.2 46 -4.3 54 97 53 109 32 233 52 . Eugene Jeter, SAC 11.52 49 0.1 50 -1.9 42 100 47 111 46 234 54 . Mo Williams, CLE 13.99 36 1.5 34 -4.2 52 96 54 114 58 234 54 . Will Bynum, DET 11.97 44 0.2 46 -4.2 52 102 40 113 54 236 56 . Ronnie Price, UTAH 7.8 61 -0.8 60 -1.8 41 91 63 108 28 253 57 . Eric Bledsoe, LAC 10.5 55 -0.3 56 -5.1 57 94 59 109 32 259 58 . Steve Blake, LAL 7.6 62 -1.4 65 -8.8 64 102 40 109 32 263 59 . Goran Dragic, PHX 11.74 47 0.3 45 -7.4 61 95 54 114 58 265 60 . Ishmael Smith, HOU 9.32 59 -0.3 56 -6.5 59 92 60 110 39 273 61 . Chris Duhon, ORL 6.16 64 -1.1 64 -6.6 60 90 64 107 22 274 62 . Sebastian Telfair, MIN 10.52 54 -0.1 53 -5.5 58 101 47 115 62 274 62 . Acie Law, GS 6.72 63 -0.8 60 -8.2 63 102 40 116 64 290 64 . Jonny Flynn, MIN 4.77 65 -0.9 62 -10.2 65 80 65 115 62 319 65

I'll be posting my observations on this list in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts on the list by posting a comment below.

Chicago Bulls - Early Season Returns

Without key acquisition Carlos Boozer, the Bulls have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 7-4 record.  The only loss that you may call a bad one would be to the New York Knicks in the fourth game at home.  On the positive side, Chicago has some quality wins at home over Portland, Denver and Golden State, and on the road in Dallas.

Photo source: keith011764

Let's jump into some of the advanced statistics through the first 11 games to see what's been keying their wins and who may need to pick up their game as the season continues.

For the record, I predicted the Bulls would finish the season at 50-32.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 106.7 (16th in the NBA) [103.5 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 103.2 (8th) [105.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.5 [-1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [97.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.3 (12th) [99.1 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.3 (13th) [93.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Luol Deng
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 14.2 (16.1)

Joakim Noah
Offensive Rating: 118 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 19.9 (17.9)

Derrick Rose
Offensive Rating: 110 (106)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 22.6 (18.6)

Taj Gibson
Offensive Rating: 110 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 17.9 (13.8)

Keith Bogans
Offensive Rating: 105 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 9.1 (7.7)

Kyle Korver
Offensive Rating: 124 (116)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 15.5 (13.9)

Ronnie Brewer
Offensive Rating: 105 (110)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 13.6 (12.5)

Omer Asik
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 102
PER: 9.0

C.J. Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (112)
PER: 13.8 (13.8)

When you delve into the early season statistics for the Bulls there is a lot to like.  They've improved their offensive efficiency from 103.5 in 2009/10 to 106.7 and their defensive efficiency from 105.3 to 103.2.  This has resulted in a very impressive jump in their differential from -1.8 to 3.5.  I haven't researched it yet, but I doubt there is another team in the NBA that has forced such a dramatic improvement.

The continued development of Chicago's key young players shows you exactly why many NBA followers were pointing to this franchise as one of the best positioned.  While he's only played the third most minutes on the team, Rose is where much of this talk starts.  His 22.6 PER has him ranked 16th overall in the NBA at the moment and is an excellent four point improvement over last season. Two stats jump out at me in regards to Rose - his three-point shooting (he's taking three more per game this season and shooting 34%, up from 27%) and his assists (up to 8.5 per game from 6.0 per game last season).

Noah is the other player that was lauded for his potential over the summer.  Well he's bringing it again in 2010.  He's bumped his PER up, by two points to 19.9, and improved both his Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  After a bit of a drop in shooting percentage last season he's boomeranged back up to 53%.

Second-year man Gibson has also stepped his game up nicely while filling in for Boozer.  His PER has jumped 4.1 points and his efficiency differential is up from +1 to +9.

On the down side, Deng is averaging the most minutes per game at 38.6 but he has not been efficient.  His PER is as low as it's ever been, tied with his rookie year number at this point and below that of the average player (15.0).  His field-goal shooting is an awful 41%, his free-throw shooting percentage, steals and rebounds are all down and his turnovers are up.

The fact that Bogans is getting so many minutes is scary for the Bulls.  His PER is a very poor 9.1.  Of course, they were hoping Brewer would take hold of the off guard position. He has not done that quite yet, mostly because he does not have a three-point shot that can spread the defense.  Korver does and he's showing some nice improvement over last year's numbers.  At 15.5 he's putting up the highest PER of his career.

Watson has struggled with his shot in small minutes, but is making up for it by creating more shots for teammates.

The key to the long term success of the Bulls is certaintly to get Boozer back and work him into rotation.  His game will be a great complement to Rose and Noah and should position the Bulls as a real threat to the Eastern Conference crown.  If Gibson can continue his strong play while Deng raises his shooting percentage then there is no doubt Chicago can contend.

What are your observations on the Bulls so far in 2010?  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Chicago Bulls - Better or Worse?

After a wild season in which they won 10 of their last 14 games to salvage a playoff spot after losing 10 in row to almost give it away, the Bulls went into the offseason with the money to make a splash and attractive pieces already in place. They made the moves they needed to in order to dump salary but in the end they were unable to bring in a top two or three player. They did "settle" for Carlos Boozer, who is a pretty good consolation prize. Unfortunately it was announced yesterday that he broke his hand and will miss around eight weeks. How will the Bulls fare in the 2010-2011 season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: BrentDPayne

Point Guard
2009 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), Jannero Pargo (#60 PG, Below level)
2010 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)

Rose was ranked among the top half of point guards last season and should move into the top 10 this season. The signing of Watson could prove to be the best under the radar move of the offseason.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kirk Hinrich (#39 SG, Level 7), Ronald Murray (#54 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)

Chicago upgraded the two guard position at both starter and backup. Korver is coming off a sneaky good season. If he can stay healthy he'll add an important three point shooting dimension to the offense.

Small Forward
2009 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)

This is the one position where the two-deep will not change from last season.

Power Forward
2009 - Taj Gibson (#41 PF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Taj Gibson (#42 PF, Level 7)

Boozer gives the Bulls an impactful improvement at the four, but that will be tempered a bit by the injury.

Center
2009 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)
2010 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Kurt Thomas (#50 C, Level 9)

Now that he's gotten his extension, it is important that Noah takes another step forward in his development. They may miss the versatility of Miller, but Thomas is a solid backup.

Overall
Although they did not get LeBron or D Wade, the Bulls made a lot of solid moves to improve this offseason. If the new pieces can gel with the existing talent, Chicago should win the Central Division and earn a home playoff series or two.

Last season the Bulls finished with a 41-41 record. Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them picking up three wins at point guard, three wins at shooting guard and three wins at power forward (would have been five without the Boozer injury) while staying even at small forward and center.

In the final verdict the Bulls are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 50-32.

Does that prediction sound about right or do you think I'm off? Do you like the moves the Bulls made in the offseason? Post a comment below and let me know your thoughts.