NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA center rankings - here are my observations on the rankings:

• I mentioned it briefly in my initial post - I'm surprised at how close Dwight Howard and Al Horford are at the top of the rankings.  Horford trails Howard by only two total points.
• Howard is first in four of the five categories.  The only exception is the Offensive Rating category in which he's 22nd. 
• Tyson Chandler leads that Offensive Rating category and is a very impressive third.  He and Tim Duncan, who was second in 2009-10, are the second level of centers.
• Andrew Bynum, Nene and Joakim Noah represent the third level.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Chandler, Jeff Foster and JaVale McGee.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson and David Lee.
• Making the biggest jumps from the final 2009-10 rankings are DeAndre Jordan (up 36), Kwame Brown (up 32) and Chandler (up 31).
• Jordan's biggest leap is in the Simple Rating where he was a -7.3 last season but is a 1.4 midway through this season.  He's also already doubled his Estimated Wins Added.
• Chandler has played a big role in Dallas's defensive improvement.  His PER has skyrocketed from 12.58 in 2009-10 to 19.06 so far in 2010-11.  He's already added an estimated 5.3 wins compared to his 1.1 Estimated Wins Added last season.
• Falling the most from the 2009-10 rankings are Jermaine O'Neal (down 35), Brendan Haywood (down 33) and Louis Amundson (down 31).
• Due in large part to his third best Defensive Rating, Omer Asik is the highest ranked rookie.
• The two teams getting the least production from the center position are Phoenix and Cleveland.  The Suns have Channing Frye at 42 and Robin Lopez at 43.  The Cavs have Ryan Hollins at 49.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

The top of the mid-season NBA center rankings are surprisingly close - at least to me. Dwight Howard finished solidly in first in the 2009-10 NBA center rankings. But Al Horford is very close to Howard at mid-season.

For additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season take a look at my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through February 7 here are my center rankings:

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O. Rat Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final . Dwight Howard, ORL 25.68 1 12.8 1 11.1 1 111 22 95 1 26 1 . Al Horford, ATL 22.45 2 9.7 2 8.2 3 122 5 103 16 28 2 . Tyson Chandler, DAL 19.06 7 5.3 7 4.6 10 134 1 101 13 38 3 . Tim Duncan, SA 21.5 3 7.6 3 8.7 2 109 27 99 7 42 4 . Andrew Bynum, LAL 20.61 5 2.9 16 6.5 4 122 5 104 20 50 5 . Nene, DEN 21.45 4 7.3 4 6 6 128 2 107 35 51 6 . Joakim Noah, CHI 19.54 6 3.9 14 0 22 115 12 96 2 56 7 . Emeka Okafor, NO 16.65 18 4.8 10 3.5 13 113 16 100 9 66 8 . Shaquille O'Neal, BOS 17.31 13 2.5 19 5.2 8 111 22 98 5 67 9 . Andrew Bogut, MIL 17.86 10 5.1 8 6.1 5 101 43 98 5 71 10 . Jeff Foster, IND 16.25 20 1.3 26 5.6 7 118 9 100 9 71 11 . Marc Gasol, MEM 16.7 17 4.9 9 5 9 112 19 104 20 74 12 . JaVale McGee, WSH 17.58 12 4.2 13 4.6 10 112 19 105 30 84 13 . Marcin Gortat, PHX 16.72 16 2.7 18 -3.5 37 117 10 103 16 97 14 . Brook Lopez, NJ 18.74 8 6.9 5 4.6 10 106 33 109 46 102 15 . Brad Miller, HOU 17.59 11 2.3 21 0.5 19 120 7 109 46 104 16 . DeAndre Jordan, LAC 14.68 24 2.5 19 1.4 17 114 15 106 32 107 17 . Ronny Turiaf, NY 14.33 25 1.4 23 1.7 15 127 3 108 42 108 18 . Al Jefferson, UTAH 18.32 9 6.7 6 -3.2 35 109 27 107 35 112 19 . Chuck Hayes, HOU 16.14 21 2.9 16 -2.5 30 124 4 108 42 113 20 . Zydrunas Ilgauskas, MIA 13.09 32 1 30 0.5 19 108 29 100 9 119 21 . Roy Hibbert, IND 15.52 22 3 15 0 22 97 47 102 15 121 22 . Kurt Thomas, CHI 11.26 41 0.2 40 0 22 112 19 97 3 125 23 . David Lee, GS 17 14 4.4 12 1.6 16 108 29 111 56 127 24 . Nazr Mohammed, CHA 16.99 15 2.2 22 -3.3 36 102 39 104 20 132 25 . Kwame Brown, CHA 13.98 27 1.3 26 -2.7 33 115 12 107 35 133 26 . Anthony Tolliver, MIN 13.27 30 0.8 33 2.7 14 116 11 111 56 144 27 . Marreese Speights, PHI 14.88 23 1.1 28 -1 26 104 38 105 30 145 28 . Chris Andersen, DEN 14.03 26 0.5 38 -3.6 38 115 12 106 32 146 29 . Jason Thompson, SAC 13.96 28 1.4 23 -0.4 25 106 33 108 42 151 30 . Samuel Dalembert, SAC 12.69 35 0.9 31 0.4 21 96 50 104 20 157 31 . Andris Biedrins, GS 12.9 34 1.1 28 -5.2 44 113 16 107 35 157 32 . Andrea Bargnani, TOR 16.34 19 4.5 11 -2.6 31 102 39 113 60 160 33 . Omer Asik, CHI 10.69 43 0 42 -2.8 34 101 43 97 3 165 34 . Ben Wallace, DET 12.48 36 0.9 31 -5.2 44 102 39 104 20 170 35 . Nenad Krstic, OKC 12.37 37 0.8 33 -2.4 28 110 25 110 53 176 36 . Darko Milicic, MIN 13.14 31 1.4 23 -2.6 31 92 57 107 35 177 37 . Semih Erden, BOS 10.74 42 0 42 -12.5 58 108 29 99 7 178 38 . Trevor Booker, WSH 13 33 0.6 37 -4.6 41 110 25 109 46 182 39 . Zaza Pachulia, ATL 10.46 44 0 42 -5 43 105 36 104 20 185 40 . Joel Anthony, MIA 7.55 56 -1.4 61 -6 47 119 8 103 16 188 41 . Channing Frye, PHX 11.66 38 0.8 33 -4.7 42 106 33 109 46 192 42 . Robin Lopez, PHX 13.34 29 0.8 33 -4.1 39 107 32 112 59 192 43 . Erick Dampier, MIA 7.49 57 -0.5 55 -2.4 28 100 45 101 13 198 44 . Spencer Hawes, PHI 11.58 39 0.5 38 -6.3 48 93 55 104 20 200 45 . Brendan Haywood, DAL 10.14 47 -0.2 48 -9 55 102 39 103 16 205 46 . Solomon Jones, IND 9.59 50 -0.2 48 -7.5 50 98 46 104 20 214 47 . Francisco Elson, UTAH 10.07 48 -0.1 46 -4.1 39 105 36 109 46 215 48 . Ryan Hollins, CLE 11.46 40 0.2 40 -8.3 53 111 22 113 60 215 49 . Jermaine O'Neal, BOS 9.09 53 -0.2 48 -9.5 56 95 51 100 9 217 50 . Melvin Ely, DEN 8.07 54 -0.4 54 -5.2 44 113 16 110 53 221 51 . Johan Petro, NJ 9.61 49 -0.2 48 -8.9 54 95 51 104 20 222 52 . Jason Collins, ATL 5.39 60 -1.1 60 -2 27 97 47 107 35 229 53 . Kyrylo Fesenko, UTAH 5.72 59 -0.8 58 0.9 18 89 61 109 46 242 54 . Dan Gadzuric, GS 10.33 45 0 42 -10.6 57 94 53 109 46 243 55 . Hilton Armstrong, WSH 7.96 55 -0.5 55 -7.5 50 93 55 106 32 247 56 . Nikola Pekovic, MIN 10.15 46 -0.1 46 -8.2 52 97 47 111 56 247 57 . Josh Powell, ATL 9.51 51 -0.3 53 -13.9 60 94 53 108 42 259 58 . Louis Amundson, GS 9.46 52 -0.2 48 -6.5 49 92 57 110 53 259 59 . Hasheem Thabeet, MEM 4.84 61 -1 59 -18.5 61 91 59 104 20 260 60 . Timofey Mozgov, NY 7.42 58 -0.5 55 -13.5 59 91 59 107 35 266 61

In the next couple of days I'll follow up with my observations.  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Chicago Bulls - Early Season Returns

Without key acquisition Carlos Boozer, the Bulls have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 7-4 record.  The only loss that you may call a bad one would be to the New York Knicks in the fourth game at home.  On the positive side, Chicago has some quality wins at home over Portland, Denver and Golden State, and on the road in Dallas.

Photo source: keith011764

Let's jump into some of the advanced statistics through the first 11 games to see what's been keying their wins and who may need to pick up their game as the season continues.

For the record, I predicted the Bulls would finish the season at 50-32.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 106.7 (16th in the NBA) [103.5 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 103.2 (8th) [105.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.5 [-1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [97.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.3 (12th) [99.1 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.3 (13th) [93.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Luol Deng
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 14.2 (16.1)

Joakim Noah
Offensive Rating: 118 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 19.9 (17.9)

Derrick Rose
Offensive Rating: 110 (106)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 22.6 (18.6)

Taj Gibson
Offensive Rating: 110 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 17.9 (13.8)

Keith Bogans
Offensive Rating: 105 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 9.1 (7.7)

Kyle Korver
Offensive Rating: 124 (116)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 15.5 (13.9)

Ronnie Brewer
Offensive Rating: 105 (110)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 13.6 (12.5)

Omer Asik
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 102
PER: 9.0

C.J. Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (112)
PER: 13.8 (13.8)

When you delve into the early season statistics for the Bulls there is a lot to like.  They've improved their offensive efficiency from 103.5 in 2009/10 to 106.7 and their defensive efficiency from 105.3 to 103.2.  This has resulted in a very impressive jump in their differential from -1.8 to 3.5.  I haven't researched it yet, but I doubt there is another team in the NBA that has forced such a dramatic improvement.

The continued development of Chicago's key young players shows you exactly why many NBA followers were pointing to this franchise as one of the best positioned.  While he's only played the third most minutes on the team, Rose is where much of this talk starts.  His 22.6 PER has him ranked 16th overall in the NBA at the moment and is an excellent four point improvement over last season. Two stats jump out at me in regards to Rose - his three-point shooting (he's taking three more per game this season and shooting 34%, up from 27%) and his assists (up to 8.5 per game from 6.0 per game last season).

Noah is the other player that was lauded for his potential over the summer.  Well he's bringing it again in 2010.  He's bumped his PER up, by two points to 19.9, and improved both his Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  After a bit of a drop in shooting percentage last season he's boomeranged back up to 53%.

Second-year man Gibson has also stepped his game up nicely while filling in for Boozer.  His PER has jumped 4.1 points and his efficiency differential is up from +1 to +9.

On the down side, Deng is averaging the most minutes per game at 38.6 but he has not been efficient.  His PER is as low as it's ever been, tied with his rookie year number at this point and below that of the average player (15.0).  His field-goal shooting is an awful 41%, his free-throw shooting percentage, steals and rebounds are all down and his turnovers are up.

The fact that Bogans is getting so many minutes is scary for the Bulls.  His PER is a very poor 9.1.  Of course, they were hoping Brewer would take hold of the off guard position. He has not done that quite yet, mostly because he does not have a three-point shot that can spread the defense.  Korver does and he's showing some nice improvement over last year's numbers.  At 15.5 he's putting up the highest PER of his career.

Watson has struggled with his shot in small minutes, but is making up for it by creating more shots for teammates.

The key to the long term success of the Bulls is certaintly to get Boozer back and work him into rotation.  His game will be a great complement to Rose and Noah and should position the Bulls as a real threat to the Eastern Conference crown.  If Gibson can continue his strong play while Deng raises his shooting percentage then there is no doubt Chicago can contend.

What are your observations on the Bulls so far in 2010?  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Chicago Bulls - Better or Worse?

After a wild season in which they won 10 of their last 14 games to salvage a playoff spot after losing 10 in row to almost give it away, the Bulls went into the offseason with the money to make a splash and attractive pieces already in place. They made the moves they needed to in order to dump salary but in the end they were unable to bring in a top two or three player. They did "settle" for Carlos Boozer, who is a pretty good consolation prize. Unfortunately it was announced yesterday that he broke his hand and will miss around eight weeks. How will the Bulls fare in the 2010-2011 season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: BrentDPayne

Point Guard
2009 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), Jannero Pargo (#60 PG, Below level)
2010 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)

Rose was ranked among the top half of point guards last season and should move into the top 10 this season. The signing of Watson could prove to be the best under the radar move of the offseason.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kirk Hinrich (#39 SG, Level 7), Ronald Murray (#54 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)

Chicago upgraded the two guard position at both starter and backup. Korver is coming off a sneaky good season. If he can stay healthy he'll add an important three point shooting dimension to the offense.

Small Forward
2009 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)

This is the one position where the two-deep will not change from last season.

Power Forward
2009 - Taj Gibson (#41 PF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Taj Gibson (#42 PF, Level 7)

Boozer gives the Bulls an impactful improvement at the four, but that will be tempered a bit by the injury.

Center
2009 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)
2010 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Kurt Thomas (#50 C, Level 9)

Now that he's gotten his extension, it is important that Noah takes another step forward in his development. They may miss the versatility of Miller, but Thomas is a solid backup.

Overall
Although they did not get LeBron or D Wade, the Bulls made a lot of solid moves to improve this offseason. If the new pieces can gel with the existing talent, Chicago should win the Central Division and earn a home playoff series or two.

Last season the Bulls finished with a 41-41 record. Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them picking up three wins at point guard, three wins at shooting guard and three wins at power forward (would have been five without the Boozer injury) while staying even at small forward and center.

In the final verdict the Bulls are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 50-32.

Does that prediction sound about right or do you think I'm off? Do you like the moves the Bulls made in the offseason? Post a comment below and let me know your thoughts.