San Antonio Spurs at the Quarter Pole

The Spurs have started the 2010-11 NBA season with a franchise record 20 wins in 23 games.  With their spectacular win-loss record, San Antonio has been an early season NBA surprise.  They currently have the best record in the NBA, with impressive road victories at Oklahoma City, Utah and New Orleans, and solid home wins over Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta.

What's been the key to the Spurs hot start?  Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.

But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.

Photo source: WDPG share

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)

Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)

Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)

Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)

George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)

DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)

Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)

Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3

Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)

Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9

The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense.  Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA.  Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA.  One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting.  They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10.  On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1.  That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.

After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms.  He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career.  Maybe it was Eva.

Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10.  He's following that up with an even better season.  Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10.  He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.

Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs.  At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career.  A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.

What a difference a year makes for Jefferson.  After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him.  He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes.  He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.

The career arc of George Hill continues to rise.  He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010.  He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.

Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit.  His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season.  On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.

The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench.  The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly.  He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting.  Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie.  He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range.  Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes.  Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.

It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now.  But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket.  Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score.  The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense.  That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.

What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

San Antonio Spurs - Better or Worse

Photo source: neth_ra

For the fourth year in a row the Spurs win total dropped.  But probably more alarming to San Antonio fans was the way the season ended - getting swept by the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals.  The Spurs were built to dispose of teams like the Suns in the playoffs, but it didn't happen in the spring of 2010.  San Antonio did not pursue massive change during the summer.  They did get the commitment from Brazilian center Tiago Splitter for 2010-11 and they drafted James Anderson who was known for excellent outside shooting at Oklahoma State.  Are the Spurs positioned for a bigger fall this season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)

Could it be that Parker is on the downside of his career at only 28?  Have injuries and so many playoff games taken a heavy toll on his body?  Last season, his scoring average was the lowest it has been in six years and his field-goal shooting percentage dropped to a level it hasn't been at in five years.  Luckily for the Spurs, second-year man Hill was there to pick up some of the slack.  I expect Parker to lose another step this season with Hill's development making up for it.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Keith Bogans (#61 SG, Level 10), Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1)
2010 - Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1), James Anderson (Rookie)

Ginobili was spectacular last season, ranking as the most productive shooting guard in the NBA.  At 33 the only direction for him to go is down.  Anderson is the best bet to provide shooting off the bench.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)

He took a lot of heat and the move was called a failure, but in reality Jefferson still had a decent season.  Bonner is a long distance threat who can work in at both forward positions.  I think San Antonio will get a little bump up from Jefferson this season.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)

McDyess was not very productive as the most frequent starter at the four.  Blair shocked NBA observers with his effectiveness in his rookie tilt.  He shot a robust 55.6% from the field and averaged 6.4 rebounds per game in just over 18 minutes.  I think he'll continue to improve in 2010-11.  Net wins - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1)
2010 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1), Tiago Splitter (Rookie)

Another top level season was turned in by Duncan although it probably went under the radar even more than usual.  His PER was actually better than Dwight Howard's.  Splitter is the big unknown.  The Spanish League MVP is expected to be a big contributor to the Spurs in 2010-11.  The hope is that he will free Duncan up to play the four and keep McDyess off the floor for the majority of the game.  I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and San Antonio a nice little bump up at the five.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
I wouldn't suggest betting against the Spurs but I have a hard time seeing them making a big jump back up in the standings.  Their age started to show last season and they were not able to integrate Jefferson into the team in a meaningful way.  To climb back up into the upper echelon of the Western Conference they'll need Parker to be healthy and better, Jefferson to be closer to the player they thought they were getting last offseason and Splitter to be an impact post player.

San Antonio played to a 50-32 record last season.  As noted above, I have them picking up two wins at center, one at small forward and a half at power forward while staying even at point guard and losing one and a half at shooting guard.

In the final verdict the Spurs are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they'll finish the 2010-11 season at 52-30.

Does that record sound about right to you?  If you think I'm off let me know why in the comment section below.