NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA center rankings - here are my observations on the rankings:

• I mentioned it briefly in my initial post - I'm surprised at how close Dwight Howard and Al Horford are at the top of the rankings.  Horford trails Howard by only two total points.
• Howard is first in four of the five categories.  The only exception is the Offensive Rating category in which he's 22nd. 
• Tyson Chandler leads that Offensive Rating category and is a very impressive third.  He and Tim Duncan, who was second in 2009-10, are the second level of centers.
• Andrew Bynum, Nene and Joakim Noah represent the third level.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Chandler, Jeff Foster and JaVale McGee.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson and David Lee.
• Making the biggest jumps from the final 2009-10 rankings are DeAndre Jordan (up 36), Kwame Brown (up 32) and Chandler (up 31).
• Jordan's biggest leap is in the Simple Rating where he was a -7.3 last season but is a 1.4 midway through this season.  He's also already doubled his Estimated Wins Added.
• Chandler has played a big role in Dallas's defensive improvement.  His PER has skyrocketed from 12.58 in 2009-10 to 19.06 so far in 2010-11.  He's already added an estimated 5.3 wins compared to his 1.1 Estimated Wins Added last season.
• Falling the most from the 2009-10 rankings are Jermaine O'Neal (down 35), Brendan Haywood (down 33) and Louis Amundson (down 31).
• Due in large part to his third best Defensive Rating, Omer Asik is the highest ranked rookie.
• The two teams getting the least production from the center position are Phoenix and Cleveland.  The Suns have Channing Frye at 42 and Robin Lopez at 43.  The Cavs have Ryan Hollins at 49.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

The top of the mid-season NBA center rankings are surprisingly close - at least to me. Dwight Howard finished solidly in first in the 2009-10 NBA center rankings. But Al Horford is very close to Howard at mid-season.

For additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season take a look at my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through February 7 here are my center rankings:

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O. Rat Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final . Dwight Howard, ORL 25.68 1 12.8 1 11.1 1 111 22 95 1 26 1 . Al Horford, ATL 22.45 2 9.7 2 8.2 3 122 5 103 16 28 2 . Tyson Chandler, DAL 19.06 7 5.3 7 4.6 10 134 1 101 13 38 3 . Tim Duncan, SA 21.5 3 7.6 3 8.7 2 109 27 99 7 42 4 . Andrew Bynum, LAL 20.61 5 2.9 16 6.5 4 122 5 104 20 50 5 . Nene, DEN 21.45 4 7.3 4 6 6 128 2 107 35 51 6 . Joakim Noah, CHI 19.54 6 3.9 14 0 22 115 12 96 2 56 7 . Emeka Okafor, NO 16.65 18 4.8 10 3.5 13 113 16 100 9 66 8 . Shaquille O'Neal, BOS 17.31 13 2.5 19 5.2 8 111 22 98 5 67 9 . Andrew Bogut, MIL 17.86 10 5.1 8 6.1 5 101 43 98 5 71 10 . Jeff Foster, IND 16.25 20 1.3 26 5.6 7 118 9 100 9 71 11 . Marc Gasol, MEM 16.7 17 4.9 9 5 9 112 19 104 20 74 12 . JaVale McGee, WSH 17.58 12 4.2 13 4.6 10 112 19 105 30 84 13 . Marcin Gortat, PHX 16.72 16 2.7 18 -3.5 37 117 10 103 16 97 14 . Brook Lopez, NJ 18.74 8 6.9 5 4.6 10 106 33 109 46 102 15 . Brad Miller, HOU 17.59 11 2.3 21 0.5 19 120 7 109 46 104 16 . DeAndre Jordan, LAC 14.68 24 2.5 19 1.4 17 114 15 106 32 107 17 . Ronny Turiaf, NY 14.33 25 1.4 23 1.7 15 127 3 108 42 108 18 . Al Jefferson, UTAH 18.32 9 6.7 6 -3.2 35 109 27 107 35 112 19 . Chuck Hayes, HOU 16.14 21 2.9 16 -2.5 30 124 4 108 42 113 20 . Zydrunas Ilgauskas, MIA 13.09 32 1 30 0.5 19 108 29 100 9 119 21 . Roy Hibbert, IND 15.52 22 3 15 0 22 97 47 102 15 121 22 . Kurt Thomas, CHI 11.26 41 0.2 40 0 22 112 19 97 3 125 23 . David Lee, GS 17 14 4.4 12 1.6 16 108 29 111 56 127 24 . Nazr Mohammed, CHA 16.99 15 2.2 22 -3.3 36 102 39 104 20 132 25 . Kwame Brown, CHA 13.98 27 1.3 26 -2.7 33 115 12 107 35 133 26 . Anthony Tolliver, MIN 13.27 30 0.8 33 2.7 14 116 11 111 56 144 27 . Marreese Speights, PHI 14.88 23 1.1 28 -1 26 104 38 105 30 145 28 . Chris Andersen, DEN 14.03 26 0.5 38 -3.6 38 115 12 106 32 146 29 . Jason Thompson, SAC 13.96 28 1.4 23 -0.4 25 106 33 108 42 151 30 . Samuel Dalembert, SAC 12.69 35 0.9 31 0.4 21 96 50 104 20 157 31 . Andris Biedrins, GS 12.9 34 1.1 28 -5.2 44 113 16 107 35 157 32 . Andrea Bargnani, TOR 16.34 19 4.5 11 -2.6 31 102 39 113 60 160 33 . Omer Asik, CHI 10.69 43 0 42 -2.8 34 101 43 97 3 165 34 . Ben Wallace, DET 12.48 36 0.9 31 -5.2 44 102 39 104 20 170 35 . Nenad Krstic, OKC 12.37 37 0.8 33 -2.4 28 110 25 110 53 176 36 . Darko Milicic, MIN 13.14 31 1.4 23 -2.6 31 92 57 107 35 177 37 . Semih Erden, BOS 10.74 42 0 42 -12.5 58 108 29 99 7 178 38 . Trevor Booker, WSH 13 33 0.6 37 -4.6 41 110 25 109 46 182 39 . Zaza Pachulia, ATL 10.46 44 0 42 -5 43 105 36 104 20 185 40 . Joel Anthony, MIA 7.55 56 -1.4 61 -6 47 119 8 103 16 188 41 . Channing Frye, PHX 11.66 38 0.8 33 -4.7 42 106 33 109 46 192 42 . Robin Lopez, PHX 13.34 29 0.8 33 -4.1 39 107 32 112 59 192 43 . Erick Dampier, MIA 7.49 57 -0.5 55 -2.4 28 100 45 101 13 198 44 . Spencer Hawes, PHI 11.58 39 0.5 38 -6.3 48 93 55 104 20 200 45 . Brendan Haywood, DAL 10.14 47 -0.2 48 -9 55 102 39 103 16 205 46 . Solomon Jones, IND 9.59 50 -0.2 48 -7.5 50 98 46 104 20 214 47 . Francisco Elson, UTAH 10.07 48 -0.1 46 -4.1 39 105 36 109 46 215 48 . Ryan Hollins, CLE 11.46 40 0.2 40 -8.3 53 111 22 113 60 215 49 . Jermaine O'Neal, BOS 9.09 53 -0.2 48 -9.5 56 95 51 100 9 217 50 . Melvin Ely, DEN 8.07 54 -0.4 54 -5.2 44 113 16 110 53 221 51 . Johan Petro, NJ 9.61 49 -0.2 48 -8.9 54 95 51 104 20 222 52 . Jason Collins, ATL 5.39 60 -1.1 60 -2 27 97 47 107 35 229 53 . Kyrylo Fesenko, UTAH 5.72 59 -0.8 58 0.9 18 89 61 109 46 242 54 . Dan Gadzuric, GS 10.33 45 0 42 -10.6 57 94 53 109 46 243 55 . Hilton Armstrong, WSH 7.96 55 -0.5 55 -7.5 50 93 55 106 32 247 56 . Nikola Pekovic, MIN 10.15 46 -0.1 46 -8.2 52 97 47 111 56 247 57 . Josh Powell, ATL 9.51 51 -0.3 53 -13.9 60 94 53 108 42 259 58 . Louis Amundson, GS 9.46 52 -0.2 48 -6.5 49 92 57 110 53 259 59 . Hasheem Thabeet, MEM 4.84 61 -1 59 -18.5 61 91 59 104 20 260 60 . Timofey Mozgov, NY 7.42 58 -0.5 55 -13.5 59 91 59 107 35 266 61

In the next couple of days I'll follow up with my observations.  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

San Antonio Spurs at the Quarter Pole

The Spurs have started the 2010-11 NBA season with a franchise record 20 wins in 23 games.  With their spectacular win-loss record, San Antonio has been an early season NBA surprise.  They currently have the best record in the NBA, with impressive road victories at Oklahoma City, Utah and New Orleans, and solid home wins over Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta.

What's been the key to the Spurs hot start?  Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.

But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.

Photo source: WDPG share

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)

Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)

Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)

Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)

George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)

DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)

Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)

Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3

Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)

Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9

The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense.  Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA.  Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA.  One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting.  They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10.  On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1.  That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.

After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms.  He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career.  Maybe it was Eva.

Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10.  He's following that up with an even better season.  Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10.  He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.

Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs.  At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career.  A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.

What a difference a year makes for Jefferson.  After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him.  He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes.  He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.

The career arc of George Hill continues to rise.  He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010.  He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.

Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit.  His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season.  On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.

The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench.  The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly.  He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting.  Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie.  He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range.  Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes.  Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.

It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now.  But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket.  Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score.  The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense.  That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.

What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

San Antonio Spurs - Better or Worse

Photo source: neth_ra

For the fourth year in a row the Spurs win total dropped.  But probably more alarming to San Antonio fans was the way the season ended - getting swept by the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals.  The Spurs were built to dispose of teams like the Suns in the playoffs, but it didn't happen in the spring of 2010.  San Antonio did not pursue massive change during the summer.  They did get the commitment from Brazilian center Tiago Splitter for 2010-11 and they drafted James Anderson who was known for excellent outside shooting at Oklahoma State.  Are the Spurs positioned for a bigger fall this season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)

Could it be that Parker is on the downside of his career at only 28?  Have injuries and so many playoff games taken a heavy toll on his body?  Last season, his scoring average was the lowest it has been in six years and his field-goal shooting percentage dropped to a level it hasn't been at in five years.  Luckily for the Spurs, second-year man Hill was there to pick up some of the slack.  I expect Parker to lose another step this season with Hill's development making up for it.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Keith Bogans (#61 SG, Level 10), Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1)
2010 - Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1), James Anderson (Rookie)

Ginobili was spectacular last season, ranking as the most productive shooting guard in the NBA.  At 33 the only direction for him to go is down.  Anderson is the best bet to provide shooting off the bench.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)

He took a lot of heat and the move was called a failure, but in reality Jefferson still had a decent season.  Bonner is a long distance threat who can work in at both forward positions.  I think San Antonio will get a little bump up from Jefferson this season.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)

McDyess was not very productive as the most frequent starter at the four.  Blair shocked NBA observers with his effectiveness in his rookie tilt.  He shot a robust 55.6% from the field and averaged 6.4 rebounds per game in just over 18 minutes.  I think he'll continue to improve in 2010-11.  Net wins - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1)
2010 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1), Tiago Splitter (Rookie)

Another top level season was turned in by Duncan although it probably went under the radar even more than usual.  His PER was actually better than Dwight Howard's.  Splitter is the big unknown.  The Spanish League MVP is expected to be a big contributor to the Spurs in 2010-11.  The hope is that he will free Duncan up to play the four and keep McDyess off the floor for the majority of the game.  I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and San Antonio a nice little bump up at the five.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
I wouldn't suggest betting against the Spurs but I have a hard time seeing them making a big jump back up in the standings.  Their age started to show last season and they were not able to integrate Jefferson into the team in a meaningful way.  To climb back up into the upper echelon of the Western Conference they'll need Parker to be healthy and better, Jefferson to be closer to the player they thought they were getting last offseason and Splitter to be an impact post player.

San Antonio played to a 50-32 record last season.  As noted above, I have them picking up two wins at center, one at small forward and a half at power forward while staying even at point guard and losing one and a half at shooting guard.

In the final verdict the Spurs are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they'll finish the 2010-11 season at 52-30.

Does that record sound about right to you?  If you think I'm off let me know why in the comment section below.

Top 100 NBA Players Rankings Analysis

On Sunday I posted the top 100 NBA players by cumulative rankings based on their performance during the 2009-2010 season.  There certainly were some surprises and interesting tidbits in the list.  Here are my thoughts on the results:

Photo source: howieluvzus

• The first thing that jumps out at me is that a player that finishes ahead of another player in the position rankings is not guaranteed to finish ahead of them in the overall rankings.  For example, Dwight Howard beats out Tim Duncan by five points to top the NBA centers list.  But, in the overall rankings Duncan finishes second, beating Howard, who finishes fifth, by 16 points.
• LeBron James rules the top of the charts, besting Duncan by 30 points.
• Kevin Durant, Pau Gasol and Howard are not too far behind Duncan.
• Due to the much bigger pool of players the disparities between the total ranking points are much more pronounced than in the individual position rankings.
• The top 100 includes 28 power forwards, 25 centers, 17 point guards, 16 shooting guards and 14 small forwards.  So small forwards (LeBron and Durant) claim two out of the first three slots, but then only represent 12 of the remaining 97. 
• Power forward is clearly the impact position in the top 100.  It's certainly surprising to see guys like DeJuan Blair, Nick Collison and Brandon Bass make the list.
• Centers dominate the top 25 placing nine in that group.
• The first point guard on the list is Deron Williams at 18.
• LeBron is first in PER, WARP and Simple Rating.  Nicolas Batum tops Offensive Rating while Dwight Howard leads the Defensive Rating category.
• There are a lot of surprises to me, but the ones that rank the highest are - Greg Oden (aided by small number of minutes), Al Horford, Gerald Wallace, Andrei Kirilenko and Anderson Varejao.
• Really is hard for me to believe that Kobe Bryant doesn't appear until the 23rd spot.
• Rookies appearing in the top 100 - DeJuan Blair (66), Rodrigue Beaubois (75), Ty Lawson (83) and James Harden (99).  Tyreke Evans comes in at 107 while Stephen Curry is at 129.

Anything surprise you about the list?

In the next couple of months I plan to analyze the offseason moves of each NBA team based on the rankings.  Subscribe to the blog to make sure you don't miss your favorite team(s).