NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Shooting Guard Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA shooting guard rankings.  Here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: Tiago Hammil

• Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade tied for the top spot.  That's no surprise - they were one and two in the 2009-10 Final Shooting Guard Rankings.  Wade is first in the PER and Estimated Wins Added categories while Ginobili leads the Simple Rating category.
• Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant are on the second level.  Allen moved up three spots from the 09-10 rankings while Bryant dropped one.
• Interestingly, Eric Gordon and Kevin Martin are both really hurt by their Defensive Rating.  Gordon tied for 51st and Martin tied for 60th. 
• Jason Richardson and Vince Carter, who were essentially swapped for each other by the Magic and Suns, come in 11th and 12th.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Andre Iguodala, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith and Ronnie Brewer.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, O.J. Mayo and John Salmons. 
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are DeShawn Stevenson (up 52), Nick Young (up 43) and Tracy McGrady (up 28).  Those are three very different cases.
• Stevenson boosted his PER from 3.3 last season to a career best 13.3 this season and his Simple Rating from -10 to 3.3. 
• The biggest droppers from 2009-10 are John Salmons (down 37), Quentin Richardson (down 31) and Randy Foye (down 26).
• Salmons really surprises me.  I expected him to be excellent for the Bucks this season after serving as such a uniter when he came over from Chicago during the middle of last season.  The most noticeable difference - his Simple Rating crashed from 7.9 in 09-10 to -4.2 this season.
• Fields is the highest ranking rookie at number 10.  Evan Turner is next at 59.
• The two teams getting the least production from the shooting guard position are Utah and Cleveland.  The Jazz have Raja Bell at 60.  The Cavaliers have Anthony Parker at 61, Alonzo Gee at 62, Manny Harris at 66 and Joey Graham at 68.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Shooting Guard Rankings

There's a tie atop the mid-season rankings of NBA shooting guards. Dwyane Wade and Manu Ginobili have outproduced all of the competition at their position.  That is no change from the 2009-10 NBA Shooting Guard Rankings - they were in the top two spots there as well.

To see additional details on my ranking process check out my 2010-11 Mid-Season Small Forward Rankings.  For your viewing pleasure, or displeasure, here are the mid-season shooting guard rankings:

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O. Rat Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final . Dwyane Wade, MIA 25.51 1 11.2 1 11.6 2 113 11 101 3 18 1 . Manu Ginobili, SA 22.58 4 8.3 3 12.6 1 117 5 102 5 18 1 . Ray Allen, BOS 17.81 8 5.6 7 6.9 6 119 3 104 11 35 3 . Kobe Bryant, LAL 24.73 2 10.6 2 8.9 3 112 13 106 18 38 4 . Andre Iguodala, PHI 17.2 9 3.9 10 5.1 8 109 20 104 11 58 5 . Eric Gordon, LAC 21.18 5 8.2 4 8.2 4 117 5 112 51 69 6 . Joe Johnson, ATL 18.33 7 5.1 8 7.9 5 108 26 108 30 76 7 . Kevin Martin, HOU 22.77 3 8.2 4 6.6 7 120 2 113 60 76 7 . Jamal Crawford, ATL 16.77 11 3.6 11 3.8 13 109 20 108 30 85 9 . Landry Fields, NY 14.14 23 2.3 19 4.8 9 116 7 108 30 88 10 . Jason Richardson, ORL 17 10 4.6 9 1.1 24 113 11 109 37 91 11 . Vince Carter, PHX 15.65 16 2.8 15 4 12 107 30 107 23 96 12 . J.R. Smith, DEN 15.83 13 2.6 16 2.8 16 106 32 107 23 100 13 . James Harden, OKC 14.82 21 2.2 20 0 27 115 9 108 30 107 14 . Ronnie Brewer, CHI 13.42 31 1.5 28 1.8 22 108 26 98 1 108 15 . Monta Ellis, GS 19.76 6 8.1 6 2.2 20 108 26 112 51 109 16 . Wesley Matthews, POR 15.77 14 3.6 11 -1 35 112 13 109 37 110 17 . J.J. Redick, ORL 13.52 29 1.5 28 -0.9 34 119 3 106 18 112 18 . Rudy Fernandez, POR 14.48 22 1.8 24 1.6 23 109 20 107 23 112 18 . Nick Young, WSH 15.76 15 3.2 13 4.5 10 111 16 113 60 114 20 . DeShawn Stevenson, DAL 13.28 32 1 35 3.3 14 116 7 108 30 118 21 . Brandon Roy, POR 14.97 17 1.8 24 4.5 10 107 30 109 37 118 21 . Kyle Korver, CHI 12.58 38 1 35 1 25 111 16 102 5 119 23 . Francisco Garcia, SAC 14.01 26 1.4 31 0 27 115 9 108 30 123 24 . Arron Afflalo, DEN 14.02 24 2.6 16 -1.3 36 124 1 112 51 128 25 . Jason Terry, DAL 14.95 19 3.1 14 0 27 101 47 107 23 130 26 . Leandro Barbosa, TOR 16.53 12 2.5 18 2.4 17 108 26 113 60 133 27 . Tracy McGrady, DET 13.89 27 1.6 26 2.3 18 103 40 109 37 148 28 . Tony Allen, MEM 14.96 18 1.2 32 -2 42 96 60 99 2 154 29 . Marquis Daniels, BOS 12.03 41 0.7 38 -1.4 37 104 37 101 3 156 30 . Marcus Thornton, NO 14.02 24 0.8 37 -1.5 38 97 58 102 5 162 31 . Keyon Dooling, MIL 11.43 47 0.3 45 2.3 18 104 37 106 18 165 32 . Kirk Hinrich, WSH 13.47 30 1.6 26 -3.4 47 109 20 111 47 170 33 . Stephen Jackson, CHA 13.56 28 2.2 20 -1.8 40 96 60 107 23 171 34 . Thabo Sefolosha, OKC 10.5 54 0 53 -0.7 32 111 16 106 18 173 35 . Ben Gordon, DET 12.94 35 1.5 28 3 15 102 46 112 51 175 36 . Toney Douglas, NY 13.05 34 1.1 33 -1.9 41 104 37 109 37 182 37 . Marco Belinelli, NO 11.31 48 0.5 42 -2.1 44 105 35 106 18 187 38 . Jodie Meeks, PHI 11.21 49 0.2 51 1 25 111 16 110 46 187 38 . Anthony Morrow, NJ 11.19 50 0.3 45 -0.1 30 112 13 112 51 189 40 . Richard Hamilton, DET 14.95 19 1.9 23 -3.4 47 103 40 113 60 189 40 . Luther Head, SAC 11.91 42 0.3 45 -1.6 39 109 20 112 51 197 42 . O.J. Mayo, MEM 12.24 40 1.1 33 -3.9 51 101 47 108 30 201 43 . Jeff Teague, ATL 12.9 36 0.5 42 -6.7 63 98 54 103 8 203 44 . John Salmons, MIL 11.55 45 0.7 38 -4.2 53 98 54 105 14 204 45 . Courtney Lee, HOU 11.69 44 0.5 42 -0.4 31 103 40 111 47 204 45 . Von Wafer, BOS 10.56 53 0 53 -3.5 49 103 40 104 11 206 47 . Corey Brewer, MIN 11.13 51 0.3 45 2 21 98 54 109 37 208 48 . Quentin Richardson, ORL 9.76 57 -0.2 56 -3.8 50 103 40 103 8 211 49 . Brandon Rush, IND 10.79 52 0.2 51 -3.3 46 103 40 107 23 212 50 . Sam Young, MEM 11.51 46 0.3 45 -5.7 57 99 51 105 14 213 51 . Josh Childress, PHX 12.6 37 0.6 40 -2.5 45 106 32 113 60 214 52 . DeMar DeRozan, TOR 13.23 33 2 22 -8 66 106 32 114 66 219 53 . Bill Walker, NY 10.46 55 0 53 -0.8 33 105 35 112 51 227 54 . Sasha Vujacic, NJ 11.77 43 0.3 45 -4.5 55 99 51 109 37 231 55 . Sonny Weems, TOR 12.27 39 0.6 40 -3.9 51 99 51 114 66 247 56 . Keith Bogans, CHI 6.93 69 -1.4 70 -5.7 57 101 47 103 8 251 57 . Willie Green, NO 8.78 62 -0.7 64 -5.9 59 96 60 105 14 259 58 . Evan Turner, PHI 9.21 59 -0.6 62 -6.2 61 95 65 105 14 261 59 . Raja Bell, UTAH 9.02 60 -0.9 68 -8.1 67 109 20 112 51 266 60 . Anthony Parker, CLE 9.99 56 -0.3 57 -2 42 101 47 114 66 268 61 . Alonzo Gee, CLE 9 61 -0.3 57 -4.3 54 96 60 109 37 269 62 . Gerald Henderson, CHA 8.73 63 -0.5 60 -5.1 56 93 68 107 23 270 63 . Greivis Vasquez, MEM 8.49 64 -0.6 62 -8.1 67 96 60 109 37 290 64 . Xavier Henry, MEM 7.55 66 -0.7 64 -6.1 60 98 54 111 47 291 65 . Manny Harris, CLE 9.46 58 -0.3 57 -13.9 70 92 69 111 47 301 66 . Rasual Butler, LAC 7.39 68 -1 69 -6.6 62 97 58 112 51 308 67 . Wayne Ellington, MIN 7.89 65 -0.7 64 -11 69 95 65 113 60 323 68 . Joey Graham, CLE 7.44 67 -0.5 60 -7.5 65 95 65 114 66 323 68 . Randy Foye, LAC 6.54 70 -0.7 64 -7 64 92 69 114 66 333 70

I'll be posting my observations on the shooting guard rankings in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

San Antonio Spurs at the Quarter Pole

The Spurs have started the 2010-11 NBA season with a franchise record 20 wins in 23 games.  With their spectacular win-loss record, San Antonio has been an early season NBA surprise.  They currently have the best record in the NBA, with impressive road victories at Oklahoma City, Utah and New Orleans, and solid home wins over Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta.

What's been the key to the Spurs hot start?  Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.

But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.

Photo source: WDPG share

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)

Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)

Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)

Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)

George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)

DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)

Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)

Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3

Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)

Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9

The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense.  Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA.  Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA.  One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting.  They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10.  On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1.  That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.

After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms.  He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career.  Maybe it was Eva.

Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10.  He's following that up with an even better season.  Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10.  He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.

Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs.  At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career.  A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.

What a difference a year makes for Jefferson.  After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him.  He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes.  He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.

The career arc of George Hill continues to rise.  He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010.  He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.

Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit.  His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season.  On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.

The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench.  The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly.  He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting.  Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie.  He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range.  Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes.  Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.

It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now.  But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket.  Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score.  The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense.  That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.

What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

San Antonio Spurs - Better or Worse

Photo source: neth_ra

For the fourth year in a row the Spurs win total dropped.  But probably more alarming to San Antonio fans was the way the season ended - getting swept by the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals.  The Spurs were built to dispose of teams like the Suns in the playoffs, but it didn't happen in the spring of 2010.  San Antonio did not pursue massive change during the summer.  They did get the commitment from Brazilian center Tiago Splitter for 2010-11 and they drafted James Anderson who was known for excellent outside shooting at Oklahoma State.  Are the Spurs positioned for a bigger fall this season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)

Could it be that Parker is on the downside of his career at only 28?  Have injuries and so many playoff games taken a heavy toll on his body?  Last season, his scoring average was the lowest it has been in six years and his field-goal shooting percentage dropped to a level it hasn't been at in five years.  Luckily for the Spurs, second-year man Hill was there to pick up some of the slack.  I expect Parker to lose another step this season with Hill's development making up for it.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Keith Bogans (#61 SG, Level 10), Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1)
2010 - Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1), James Anderson (Rookie)

Ginobili was spectacular last season, ranking as the most productive shooting guard in the NBA.  At 33 the only direction for him to go is down.  Anderson is the best bet to provide shooting off the bench.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)

He took a lot of heat and the move was called a failure, but in reality Jefferson still had a decent season.  Bonner is a long distance threat who can work in at both forward positions.  I think San Antonio will get a little bump up from Jefferson this season.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)

McDyess was not very productive as the most frequent starter at the four.  Blair shocked NBA observers with his effectiveness in his rookie tilt.  He shot a robust 55.6% from the field and averaged 6.4 rebounds per game in just over 18 minutes.  I think he'll continue to improve in 2010-11.  Net wins - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1)
2010 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1), Tiago Splitter (Rookie)

Another top level season was turned in by Duncan although it probably went under the radar even more than usual.  His PER was actually better than Dwight Howard's.  Splitter is the big unknown.  The Spanish League MVP is expected to be a big contributor to the Spurs in 2010-11.  The hope is that he will free Duncan up to play the four and keep McDyess off the floor for the majority of the game.  I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and San Antonio a nice little bump up at the five.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
I wouldn't suggest betting against the Spurs but I have a hard time seeing them making a big jump back up in the standings.  Their age started to show last season and they were not able to integrate Jefferson into the team in a meaningful way.  To climb back up into the upper echelon of the Western Conference they'll need Parker to be healthy and better, Jefferson to be closer to the player they thought they were getting last offseason and Splitter to be an impact post player.

San Antonio played to a 50-32 record last season.  As noted above, I have them picking up two wins at center, one at small forward and a half at power forward while staying even at point guard and losing one and a half at shooting guard.

In the final verdict the Spurs are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they'll finish the 2010-11 season at 52-30.

Does that record sound about right to you?  If you think I'm off let me know why in the comment section below.