Dallas Mavericks at the Quarter Pole

At 16-4 the Mavericks are second to only the division rival Spurs in the Western Conference and NBA standings.  They've been as impressive as anybody and have currently won nine in a row.  Interestingly, three of their four losses have been at home.  They are 8-1 on the road with the only loss coming in New Orleans.  They've won at Atlanta, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Utah.

Clearly Dallas has been one of the better teams in the NBA through the first quarter of the season.  Let's take a deeper look at the statistics and see what else we can learn about the Mavs.

But first, I predicted Dallas would finish the season at 53-29.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.2 (12th in the NBA) [109.2 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.8 (5th) [106.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 6.4 [2.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 98.0 (19th) [102.0 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.2 (3rd) [99.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.6 (25th) [92.5 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Dirk Nowitzki
Offensive Rating: 117 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 24.6 (22.9)

Jason Kidd
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 102 (105)
PER: 15.4 (17.2)

Jason Terry
Offensive Rating: 109 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (109)
PER: 18.0 (16.5)

Tyson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 138 (107)
Defensive Rating: 97 (102)
PER: 18.7 (12.5)

Shawn Marion
Offensive Rating: 104 (107)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 15.5 (14.7)

Caron Butler
Offensive Rating: 97 (101)
Defensive Rating: 102 (108)
PER: 13.0 (13.7)

Jose Barea
Offensive Rating: 96 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 11.2 (12.8)

Brendan Haywood
Offensive Rating: 102 (117)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 10.0 (16.1)

DeShawn Stevenson
Offensive Rating: 126 (83)
Defensive Rating: 105 (112)
PER: 14.2 (3.3)

Would you believe that the Mavericks are doing it with defense?  A team that has lived in the freewheeling, faster-paced "offense can always beat the defense" mindset has found a great deal of success in focusing on defense.  They've improved their Defensive Rating a tremendous 4.5 points and are now ranked fifth in the NBA.  They've slowed their pace by nearly two possessions per game but are still almost as efficient on offense as last season.  And they've improved their rating differential from 2.9 in 2009-10 to 6.4.

As they have been for quite some time now, the Mavs are led by Nowitzki.  His 24.6 PER ranks him eighth in the NBA.  He's shooting 55.3% overall, his best percentage by a wide margin, and continues to contribute in every area of the game.

Kidd currently has the lowest PER since his rookie season 16 years ago.  His field goal shooting is lower than it's ever been in his career but his 35.7% mark behind the arc is still above his career number.  Also on the positive side, he's averaging more assists per 36 minutes of play than he has in all but one of his 17 seasons.

The stronger focus on defense certainly shows in Terry's numbers.  He's putting up the best Defensive Rating of his career and is averaging more steals per 36 minutes than he ever has.  He's also providing the Mavericks a dependable spark off the bench.

Chandler has been a fantastic addition.  His 138 Offensive Rating is tops in the NBA and his 97 Defensive Rating is also excellent.  His PER is higher than it's ever been.  His shooting percentage from the field and the free throw line are at career highs.  Most importantly, he's been able to stay healthy, playing in all 20 games. 

Formerly known as the Matrix, Marion is not the player he used to be.  He's still serviceable though and has improved his PER slightly from a career low last season.  He's an awful three-point shooter but his overall field-goal percentage hovers around 50.  It is concerning that his turnover rate is at a career worst.

For the third year in a row Butler's production is dropping.  His PER is now at a dangerously low 13.0, well below the league average of 15.0.  He's still living off the reputation he earned three and four years ago in Washington but he is nowhere near as effective.

Barea gets too many minutes for a guy who's never had a positive differential and whose PER is a poor 11.2.  His three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this year and currently stands at 15.9%.

After a solidly productive 2009-10, Haywood is having the worst year of his career.  He's shooting very well from the field but everything else is way down.

Stevenson's shooting has kept him in the rotation, in fact he's started 15 of the 17 games he's played despite a PER that ranks him as below average.  Knocking down 51.1% of your three point shots will always keep you in the game.

Looking at the individual stats further makes the case that defense is the key to the Mavericks' hot start.  All nine players in the rotation have improved their Defensive Rating from last year.  Chandler has given Dallas a big boost on the defensive end and his excellent production levels are making up for Haywood's drop off. 

If the Mavericks can continue to excel on defense they will be tough to beat.  Their problem may be that when they get in a playoff series with a team with a lot of offensive weapons they may not have the firepower to keep up.

What are your thoughts on the Mavericks through the first 20 games of the year?  Post a comment below and let me know.

Dallas Mavericks - Better or Worse

With 10 50-win seasons in a row the Mavericks have one of the most impressive streaks in professional sports.  A large part of the credit for that belongs to their owner Mark Cuban who clearly is heavily invested in winning.  Another chunk should certainly go to Dirk Nowitzki.  He's been about as good as anybody over the last decade and has played in a minimum of 76 games in each of those 10 seasons.  Dallas was excellent again in 2009-10, piling up 55 wins, which was good enough for the two seed in the Western Conference.  Then they went down hard in the playoffs, losing to the Spurs in the first round.  The offseason did not bring much change so the Mavs will be putting most of the same pieces back out on the floor in 2010-11.  Will that be enough to continue their run of 50-win seasons?  Let's take a look at their lineup.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dherrera_96

Point Guard
2009 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)

At 37, Kidd is winning the fight over Father Time.  His performance last season was good enough to rank him in the very top level of NBA point guards and he has built himself into an excellent three-point shooter in his time in Dallas.  Barea is only okay as a backup.  I can't see Kidd keeping up with his pace from last season.  Net losses 1 1/2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)
2010 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)

Even though they really have four shooting guards on the roster, they start a true small forward, Butler, at the two.  Butler was good but not great after he joined the Mavericks last season.  Terry was again excellent off the bench while Beaubois was surprisingly productive in limited minutes his rookie season.  I like a little bump in production at this position as Butler gets more comfortable in Dallas.  Net wins - 1.

Small Forward
2009 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)
2010 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)

Marion is no longer the matrix of old but is still among the top half of small forwards in the NBA.  What's really concerning is that his scoring average and rebounding were the lowest they've been since his rookie season of 1999-2000.  Butler backs up Marion at the three.  I'm projecting more deterioration in Marion's game.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)

Nowitzki was stellar again in 2009-10.  I do think his 12 years in the NBA will start to wear on him this season, just slightly.  Net losses - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Erick Dampier (#18 C, Level 5), Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4)
2010 - Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4), Tyson Chandler (#34 C, Level 7)

While not a major stat producer, Dampier put in productive minutes by knowing his role and fulfilling it well.  Haywood was a solid pickup for the Mavericks who can contribute on both ends of the floor.  Chandler has been plagued by injuries over the last two years.  If he can stay healthy he should contribute good minutes as an athletic defensive stopper and alley-oop target for Kidd.  Technically the Mavericks should lose a game or two here based on the 2009-10 rankings, but I think they'll be a little better over the course of this season.  Net wins - 1/2.

Overall
One of the big concerns for the Mavericks is their depth.  They have a lot of shooting guards on the roster but could be considered thin at every other position when you factor in Chandler's recent injury history.  Age is another issue that could bring them down.  Ultimately I think they'll have one more year of strong success with the current group.  Of course, as one of the more active front offices in the league it is completely feasible that the roster they have at the end of the season will be quite different from the current one.

Last season the Mavericks had a 55-27 record.  As I documented above, I have them picking up one win at shooting guard and one half a win at center while losing one and a half at point guard and small forward and one half at power forward.

In the final verdict the Mavericks are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will be 53-29 in 2010-11.  So their worse is still pretty good.

How many games do you think the Mavericks will win this season?  Post a comment below and let me know how many and why.