Dallas Mavericks - Better or Worse

With 10 50-win seasons in a row the Mavericks have one of the most impressive streaks in professional sports.  A large part of the credit for that belongs to their owner Mark Cuban who clearly is heavily invested in winning.  Another chunk should certainly go to Dirk Nowitzki.  He's been about as good as anybody over the last decade and has played in a minimum of 76 games in each of those 10 seasons.  Dallas was excellent again in 2009-10, piling up 55 wins, which was good enough for the two seed in the Western Conference.  Then they went down hard in the playoffs, losing to the Spurs in the first round.  The offseason did not bring much change so the Mavs will be putting most of the same pieces back out on the floor in 2010-11.  Will that be enough to continue their run of 50-win seasons?  Let's take a look at their lineup.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dherrera_96

Point Guard
2009 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)

At 37, Kidd is winning the fight over Father Time.  His performance last season was good enough to rank him in the very top level of NBA point guards and he has built himself into an excellent three-point shooter in his time in Dallas.  Barea is only okay as a backup.  I can't see Kidd keeping up with his pace from last season.  Net losses 1 1/2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)
2010 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)

Even though they really have four shooting guards on the roster, they start a true small forward, Butler, at the two.  Butler was good but not great after he joined the Mavericks last season.  Terry was again excellent off the bench while Beaubois was surprisingly productive in limited minutes his rookie season.  I like a little bump in production at this position as Butler gets more comfortable in Dallas.  Net wins - 1.

Small Forward
2009 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)
2010 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)

Marion is no longer the matrix of old but is still among the top half of small forwards in the NBA.  What's really concerning is that his scoring average and rebounding were the lowest they've been since his rookie season of 1999-2000.  Butler backs up Marion at the three.  I'm projecting more deterioration in Marion's game.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)

Nowitzki was stellar again in 2009-10.  I do think his 12 years in the NBA will start to wear on him this season, just slightly.  Net losses - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Erick Dampier (#18 C, Level 5), Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4)
2010 - Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4), Tyson Chandler (#34 C, Level 7)

While not a major stat producer, Dampier put in productive minutes by knowing his role and fulfilling it well.  Haywood was a solid pickup for the Mavericks who can contribute on both ends of the floor.  Chandler has been plagued by injuries over the last two years.  If he can stay healthy he should contribute good minutes as an athletic defensive stopper and alley-oop target for Kidd.  Technically the Mavericks should lose a game or two here based on the 2009-10 rankings, but I think they'll be a little better over the course of this season.  Net wins - 1/2.

Overall
One of the big concerns for the Mavericks is their depth.  They have a lot of shooting guards on the roster but could be considered thin at every other position when you factor in Chandler's recent injury history.  Age is another issue that could bring them down.  Ultimately I think they'll have one more year of strong success with the current group.  Of course, as one of the more active front offices in the league it is completely feasible that the roster they have at the end of the season will be quite different from the current one.

Last season the Mavericks had a 55-27 record.  As I documented above, I have them picking up one win at shooting guard and one half a win at center while losing one and a half at point guard and small forward and one half at power forward.

In the final verdict the Mavericks are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will be 53-29 in 2010-11.  So their worse is still pretty good.

How many games do you think the Mavericks will win this season?  Post a comment below and let me know how many and why.