NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA center rankings - here are my observations on the rankings:

• I mentioned it briefly in my initial post - I'm surprised at how close Dwight Howard and Al Horford are at the top of the rankings.  Horford trails Howard by only two total points.
• Howard is first in four of the five categories.  The only exception is the Offensive Rating category in which he's 22nd. 
• Tyson Chandler leads that Offensive Rating category and is a very impressive third.  He and Tim Duncan, who was second in 2009-10, are the second level of centers.
• Andrew Bynum, Nene and Joakim Noah represent the third level.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Chandler, Jeff Foster and JaVale McGee.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson and David Lee.
• Making the biggest jumps from the final 2009-10 rankings are DeAndre Jordan (up 36), Kwame Brown (up 32) and Chandler (up 31).
• Jordan's biggest leap is in the Simple Rating where he was a -7.3 last season but is a 1.4 midway through this season.  He's also already doubled his Estimated Wins Added.
• Chandler has played a big role in Dallas's defensive improvement.  His PER has skyrocketed from 12.58 in 2009-10 to 19.06 so far in 2010-11.  He's already added an estimated 5.3 wins compared to his 1.1 Estimated Wins Added last season.
• Falling the most from the 2009-10 rankings are Jermaine O'Neal (down 35), Brendan Haywood (down 33) and Louis Amundson (down 31).
• Due in large part to his third best Defensive Rating, Omer Asik is the highest ranked rookie.
• The two teams getting the least production from the center position are Phoenix and Cleveland.  The Suns have Channing Frye at 42 and Robin Lopez at 43.  The Cavs have Ryan Hollins at 49.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

The top of the mid-season NBA center rankings are surprisingly close - at least to me. Dwight Howard finished solidly in first in the 2009-10 NBA center rankings. But Al Horford is very close to Howard at mid-season.

For additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season take a look at my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through February 7 here are my center rankings:

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O. Rat Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final . Dwight Howard, ORL 25.68 1 12.8 1 11.1 1 111 22 95 1 26 1 . Al Horford, ATL 22.45 2 9.7 2 8.2 3 122 5 103 16 28 2 . Tyson Chandler, DAL 19.06 7 5.3 7 4.6 10 134 1 101 13 38 3 . Tim Duncan, SA 21.5 3 7.6 3 8.7 2 109 27 99 7 42 4 . Andrew Bynum, LAL 20.61 5 2.9 16 6.5 4 122 5 104 20 50 5 . Nene, DEN 21.45 4 7.3 4 6 6 128 2 107 35 51 6 . Joakim Noah, CHI 19.54 6 3.9 14 0 22 115 12 96 2 56 7 . Emeka Okafor, NO 16.65 18 4.8 10 3.5 13 113 16 100 9 66 8 . Shaquille O'Neal, BOS 17.31 13 2.5 19 5.2 8 111 22 98 5 67 9 . Andrew Bogut, MIL 17.86 10 5.1 8 6.1 5 101 43 98 5 71 10 . Jeff Foster, IND 16.25 20 1.3 26 5.6 7 118 9 100 9 71 11 . Marc Gasol, MEM 16.7 17 4.9 9 5 9 112 19 104 20 74 12 . JaVale McGee, WSH 17.58 12 4.2 13 4.6 10 112 19 105 30 84 13 . Marcin Gortat, PHX 16.72 16 2.7 18 -3.5 37 117 10 103 16 97 14 . Brook Lopez, NJ 18.74 8 6.9 5 4.6 10 106 33 109 46 102 15 . Brad Miller, HOU 17.59 11 2.3 21 0.5 19 120 7 109 46 104 16 . DeAndre Jordan, LAC 14.68 24 2.5 19 1.4 17 114 15 106 32 107 17 . Ronny Turiaf, NY 14.33 25 1.4 23 1.7 15 127 3 108 42 108 18 . Al Jefferson, UTAH 18.32 9 6.7 6 -3.2 35 109 27 107 35 112 19 . Chuck Hayes, HOU 16.14 21 2.9 16 -2.5 30 124 4 108 42 113 20 . Zydrunas Ilgauskas, MIA 13.09 32 1 30 0.5 19 108 29 100 9 119 21 . Roy Hibbert, IND 15.52 22 3 15 0 22 97 47 102 15 121 22 . Kurt Thomas, CHI 11.26 41 0.2 40 0 22 112 19 97 3 125 23 . David Lee, GS 17 14 4.4 12 1.6 16 108 29 111 56 127 24 . Nazr Mohammed, CHA 16.99 15 2.2 22 -3.3 36 102 39 104 20 132 25 . Kwame Brown, CHA 13.98 27 1.3 26 -2.7 33 115 12 107 35 133 26 . Anthony Tolliver, MIN 13.27 30 0.8 33 2.7 14 116 11 111 56 144 27 . Marreese Speights, PHI 14.88 23 1.1 28 -1 26 104 38 105 30 145 28 . Chris Andersen, DEN 14.03 26 0.5 38 -3.6 38 115 12 106 32 146 29 . Jason Thompson, SAC 13.96 28 1.4 23 -0.4 25 106 33 108 42 151 30 . Samuel Dalembert, SAC 12.69 35 0.9 31 0.4 21 96 50 104 20 157 31 . Andris Biedrins, GS 12.9 34 1.1 28 -5.2 44 113 16 107 35 157 32 . Andrea Bargnani, TOR 16.34 19 4.5 11 -2.6 31 102 39 113 60 160 33 . Omer Asik, CHI 10.69 43 0 42 -2.8 34 101 43 97 3 165 34 . Ben Wallace, DET 12.48 36 0.9 31 -5.2 44 102 39 104 20 170 35 . Nenad Krstic, OKC 12.37 37 0.8 33 -2.4 28 110 25 110 53 176 36 . Darko Milicic, MIN 13.14 31 1.4 23 -2.6 31 92 57 107 35 177 37 . Semih Erden, BOS 10.74 42 0 42 -12.5 58 108 29 99 7 178 38 . Trevor Booker, WSH 13 33 0.6 37 -4.6 41 110 25 109 46 182 39 . Zaza Pachulia, ATL 10.46 44 0 42 -5 43 105 36 104 20 185 40 . Joel Anthony, MIA 7.55 56 -1.4 61 -6 47 119 8 103 16 188 41 . Channing Frye, PHX 11.66 38 0.8 33 -4.7 42 106 33 109 46 192 42 . Robin Lopez, PHX 13.34 29 0.8 33 -4.1 39 107 32 112 59 192 43 . Erick Dampier, MIA 7.49 57 -0.5 55 -2.4 28 100 45 101 13 198 44 . Spencer Hawes, PHI 11.58 39 0.5 38 -6.3 48 93 55 104 20 200 45 . Brendan Haywood, DAL 10.14 47 -0.2 48 -9 55 102 39 103 16 205 46 . Solomon Jones, IND 9.59 50 -0.2 48 -7.5 50 98 46 104 20 214 47 . Francisco Elson, UTAH 10.07 48 -0.1 46 -4.1 39 105 36 109 46 215 48 . Ryan Hollins, CLE 11.46 40 0.2 40 -8.3 53 111 22 113 60 215 49 . Jermaine O'Neal, BOS 9.09 53 -0.2 48 -9.5 56 95 51 100 9 217 50 . Melvin Ely, DEN 8.07 54 -0.4 54 -5.2 44 113 16 110 53 221 51 . Johan Petro, NJ 9.61 49 -0.2 48 -8.9 54 95 51 104 20 222 52 . Jason Collins, ATL 5.39 60 -1.1 60 -2 27 97 47 107 35 229 53 . Kyrylo Fesenko, UTAH 5.72 59 -0.8 58 0.9 18 89 61 109 46 242 54 . Dan Gadzuric, GS 10.33 45 0 42 -10.6 57 94 53 109 46 243 55 . Hilton Armstrong, WSH 7.96 55 -0.5 55 -7.5 50 93 55 106 32 247 56 . Nikola Pekovic, MIN 10.15 46 -0.1 46 -8.2 52 97 47 111 56 247 57 . Josh Powell, ATL 9.51 51 -0.3 53 -13.9 60 94 53 108 42 259 58 . Louis Amundson, GS 9.46 52 -0.2 48 -6.5 49 92 57 110 53 259 59 . Hasheem Thabeet, MEM 4.84 61 -1 59 -18.5 61 91 59 104 20 260 60 . Timofey Mozgov, NY 7.42 58 -0.5 55 -13.5 59 91 59 107 35 266 61

In the next couple of days I'll follow up with my observations.  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Dallas Mavericks at the Quarter Pole

At 16-4 the Mavericks are second to only the division rival Spurs in the Western Conference and NBA standings.  They've been as impressive as anybody and have currently won nine in a row.  Interestingly, three of their four losses have been at home.  They are 8-1 on the road with the only loss coming in New Orleans.  They've won at Atlanta, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Utah.

Clearly Dallas has been one of the better teams in the NBA through the first quarter of the season.  Let's take a deeper look at the statistics and see what else we can learn about the Mavs.

But first, I predicted Dallas would finish the season at 53-29.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.2 (12th in the NBA) [109.2 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.8 (5th) [106.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 6.4 [2.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 98.0 (19th) [102.0 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.2 (3rd) [99.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.6 (25th) [92.5 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Dirk Nowitzki
Offensive Rating: 117 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 24.6 (22.9)

Jason Kidd
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 102 (105)
PER: 15.4 (17.2)

Jason Terry
Offensive Rating: 109 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (109)
PER: 18.0 (16.5)

Tyson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 138 (107)
Defensive Rating: 97 (102)
PER: 18.7 (12.5)

Shawn Marion
Offensive Rating: 104 (107)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 15.5 (14.7)

Caron Butler
Offensive Rating: 97 (101)
Defensive Rating: 102 (108)
PER: 13.0 (13.7)

Jose Barea
Offensive Rating: 96 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 11.2 (12.8)

Brendan Haywood
Offensive Rating: 102 (117)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 10.0 (16.1)

DeShawn Stevenson
Offensive Rating: 126 (83)
Defensive Rating: 105 (112)
PER: 14.2 (3.3)

Would you believe that the Mavericks are doing it with defense?  A team that has lived in the freewheeling, faster-paced "offense can always beat the defense" mindset has found a great deal of success in focusing on defense.  They've improved their Defensive Rating a tremendous 4.5 points and are now ranked fifth in the NBA.  They've slowed their pace by nearly two possessions per game but are still almost as efficient on offense as last season.  And they've improved their rating differential from 2.9 in 2009-10 to 6.4.

As they have been for quite some time now, the Mavs are led by Nowitzki.  His 24.6 PER ranks him eighth in the NBA.  He's shooting 55.3% overall, his best percentage by a wide margin, and continues to contribute in every area of the game.

Kidd currently has the lowest PER since his rookie season 16 years ago.  His field goal shooting is lower than it's ever been in his career but his 35.7% mark behind the arc is still above his career number.  Also on the positive side, he's averaging more assists per 36 minutes of play than he has in all but one of his 17 seasons.

The stronger focus on defense certainly shows in Terry's numbers.  He's putting up the best Defensive Rating of his career and is averaging more steals per 36 minutes than he ever has.  He's also providing the Mavericks a dependable spark off the bench.

Chandler has been a fantastic addition.  His 138 Offensive Rating is tops in the NBA and his 97 Defensive Rating is also excellent.  His PER is higher than it's ever been.  His shooting percentage from the field and the free throw line are at career highs.  Most importantly, he's been able to stay healthy, playing in all 20 games. 

Formerly known as the Matrix, Marion is not the player he used to be.  He's still serviceable though and has improved his PER slightly from a career low last season.  He's an awful three-point shooter but his overall field-goal percentage hovers around 50.  It is concerning that his turnover rate is at a career worst.

For the third year in a row Butler's production is dropping.  His PER is now at a dangerously low 13.0, well below the league average of 15.0.  He's still living off the reputation he earned three and four years ago in Washington but he is nowhere near as effective.

Barea gets too many minutes for a guy who's never had a positive differential and whose PER is a poor 11.2.  His three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this year and currently stands at 15.9%.

After a solidly productive 2009-10, Haywood is having the worst year of his career.  He's shooting very well from the field but everything else is way down.

Stevenson's shooting has kept him in the rotation, in fact he's started 15 of the 17 games he's played despite a PER that ranks him as below average.  Knocking down 51.1% of your three point shots will always keep you in the game.

Looking at the individual stats further makes the case that defense is the key to the Mavericks' hot start.  All nine players in the rotation have improved their Defensive Rating from last year.  Chandler has given Dallas a big boost on the defensive end and his excellent production levels are making up for Haywood's drop off. 

If the Mavericks can continue to excel on defense they will be tough to beat.  Their problem may be that when they get in a playoff series with a team with a lot of offensive weapons they may not have the firepower to keep up.

What are your thoughts on the Mavericks through the first 20 games of the year?  Post a comment below and let me know.