NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

I posted my mid-season NBA power forward rankings earlier in the week - here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: bridgetds

• Pau Gasol continues to stay on top of the power forward rankings.  He was first in my final power forward rankings for the 2009-10 season as well.  However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have closed the gap.  Gasol finished 25 points ahead of Garnett and 26 points ahead of Nowitzki in 09-10.  Through mid-season 10-11 he's only 14 ahead of Nowitzki and 16 ahead of Garnett.
• Gasol is in first despite not leading any single category.  Kevin Love has the best PER and Estimated Wins Added.  Nowitzki has the best Simple Rating.  Garnett has the best Defensive Rating.  Oddly, Matt Bonner leads in Offensive Rating.
• There's a large third level with Love, David West, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer all within seven points of each other.
• Ryan Anderson presents an interesting case.  I don't think anyone really believes he's the fourth best power forward in the NBA.  However, he's in the top 10 in all categories except for Estimated Wins Added.  That raises the key point with Anderson - with an average of less than 20 minutes per game his playing time is well below that of everybody in the top 15.
• The biggest positive surprises to me, beyond Anderson, are David West, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Kris Humphries.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Josh Smith, Jeff Green and Al Harrington.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are Thaddeus Young (up 41), Kris Humphries (up 31) and Elton Brand (up 26).
• Young has boosted his PER from 14.08 to 17.96, his Simple Rating from -1.8 to 3.7, his Offensive Rating from 102 to 113 and his Defensive Rating from 111 to 105.
• Those who've fallen the most are Nick Collison (down 33), Dante Cunningham (down 30) and Shelden Williams (down 30).
• Blake Griffin is the highest rated rookie at 11th.  Greg Monroe and Ed Davis, who are tied for 41st, are the next rookies in the rankings.
• The two teams getting the least production from the power forward position are the Wizards and Nuggets.  Washington has Rashard Lewis at 46, Andray Blatche at 55 and Yi Jianlian at 72.  Denver has Kenyon Martin at 51, Al Harrington at 63 and Shelden Williams at 64.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

Through the first half of the 2010-11 NBA season Pau Gasol is the leader in production among power forwards. The top three, with Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett joining Gasol, are the same top three from the 2009-10 season. But, the order has changed and the gaps have changed.

Gasol finished first in the 2009-10 NBA power forward rankings by a wide margin.  Garnett was second and Nowitzki third.

To see the additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season check out my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through January 31 here are the power forward rankings: 

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D Rat. Rank Totals Final . Pau Gasol, LAL 23.43 4 10.4 2 12.1 2 122 7 103 20 35 1 . Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 23.55 2 7.7 7 13.6 1 115 15 104 24 49 2 . Kevin Garnett, BOS 21.66 9 5.8 14 10.9 3 112 24 94 1 51 3 . Ryan Anderson, ORL 21.9 8 2.8 26 10.1 4 124 4 101 9 51 3 . Kevin Love, MIN 24.93 1 11.5 1 8.9 5 124 4 108 51 62 5 . David West, NO 20.98 10 7.7 7 7.6 9 111 28 101 9 63 6 . Chris Bosh, MIA 20.03 14 6.3 11 8.6 6 114 16 102 16 63 6 . Lamar Odom, LAL 20.51 11 7.1 9 6 13 122 7 104 24 64 8 . Zach Randolph, MEM 22.21 6 8.6 5 7.6 9 112 24 104 24 68 9 . Carlos Boozer, CHI 22.17 7 4.9 16 7.2 11 109 33 97 2 69 10 . Blake Griffin, LAC 22.91 5 9.8 4 8 8 112 24 107 45 86 11 . LaMarcus Aldridge, POR 20.34 12 8.1 6 8.4 7 110 29 106 35 89 12 . Elton Brand, PHI 18.6 18 5.5 15 2.2 25 114 16 103 20 94 13 . Amare Stoudemire, NY 23.55 2 10.2 3 5.2 15 109 33 107 45 98 14 . Paul Millsap, UTAH 20.28 13 6.8 10 1.1 28 114 16 106 35 102 15 . Thaddeus Young, PHI 17.96 20 4.2 17 3.7 18 113 21 105 29 105 16 . Josh Smith, ATL 18.82 17 6.1 13 6 13 102 59 100 7 109 17 . Kris Humphries, NJ 17.85 22 3.9 19 1.1 28 114 16 104 24 109 17 . Brandon Bass, ORL 16.91 24 3.1 24 2.5 22 113 21 103 20 111 19 . Tyrus Thomas, CHA 19.73 15 3 25 6.2 12 103 53 100 7 112 20 . Amir Johnson, TOR 18.1 19 4 18 3.9 17 125 2 110 62 118 21 . Serge Ibaka, OKC 17.93 21 3.8 20 -0.5 37 122 7 106 35 120 22 . Marcus Camby, POR 16.27 28 2.7 28 1.9 26 106 43 99 5 130 23 . Luis Scola, HOU 19.31 16 6.3 11 3.6 19 108 39 109 56 141 24 . Matt Bonner, SA 14.05 45 1 46 2.4 23 130 1 106 35 150 25 . Anderson Varejao, CLE 15.23 37 1.8 34 4.4 16 113 21 108 51 159 26 . Ersan Ilyasova, MIL 14.27 44 1.5 38 2.3 24 105 50 101 9 165 27 . DeJuan Blair, SA 16.42 27 2.8 26 -5.9 61 104 51 99 5 170 28 . Chris Wilcox, DET 16.13 29 0.9 49 1.8 27 114 16 108 51 172 29 . Danilo Gallinari, NY 15.56 34 3.3 23 -1.2 42 125 2 112 71 172 29 . Josh McRoberts, IND 14.78 40 1.2 43 -1.8 47 110 29 102 16 175 31 . Tyler Hansbrough, IND 15.96 31 1.1 44 -1.2 42 109 33 105 29 179 32 . Hakim Warrick, PHX 17.02 23 2.3 30 -1 41 116 14 112 71 179 32 . Darrell Arthur, MEM 15.41 36 1.8 34 -2.1 50 109 33 105 29 182 34 . Craig Smith, LAC 15.46 35 0.7 50 0.3 32 117 12 110 62 191 35 . Charlie Villanueva, DET 15.97 30 2.5 29 -0.6 38 108 39 109 56 192 36 . Taj Gibson, CHI 13.48 49 1.4 40 -1.3 44 100 64 97 2 199 37 . Drew Gooden, MIL 15.88 32 1.3 42 -4.3 57 102 59 101 9 199 37 . Jon Brockman, MIL 9.45 70 -0.2 67 0.6 30 117 12 103 20 199 37 . Antawn Jamison, CLE 16.81 25 3.6 22 0.6 30 103 53 111 69 199 37 . Greg Monroe, DET 14.62 41 1.6 37 -3.5 54 112 24 107 45 201 41 . Ed Davis, TOR 15.68 33 1.4 40 -6 62 124 4 110 62 201 41 . Udonis Haslem, MIA 12.88 53 0.2 61 -2.4 51 110 29 101 9 203 43 . Joey Dorsey, TOR 14.58 42 0.6 53 -0.2 34 106 43 106 35 207 44 . Carl Landry, SAC 15.2 38 2.3 30 -1.4 45 109 33 110 62 208 45 . Glen Davis, BOS 13.13 50 1.1 44 -2 49 102 59 101 9 211 46 . Rashard Lewis, WAS 12.85 54 1 46 0 33 106 43 106 35 211 46 . Michael Beasley, MIN 16.73 26 3.7 21 -0.7 40 103 53 112 71 211 46 . Boris Diaw, CHA 13.67 48 1.7 36 -0.2 34 106 43 108 51 212 49 . Tiago Splitter, SA 13.72 47 0.6 53 -7 68 109 33 102 16 217 50 . Kenyon Martin, DEN 12.61 60 0.2 61 3.1 20 106 43 106 35 219 51 . Derrick Favors, NJ 13.78 46 1 46 -1.8 47 110 29 108 51 219 51 . Derrick Brown, CHA 12.42 62 0.4 56 2.7 21 106 43 107 45 227 53 . DeMarcus Cousins, SAC 14.86 39 2 32 -5.6 59 95 69 105 29 228 54 . Andray Blatche, WSH 14.4 43 2 32 -1.4 45 95 69 107 45 234 55 . Antonio McDyess, SA 12.52 61 0.4 56 -4.1 56 103 53 101 9 235 56 . Brian Cook, LAC 13.08 51 0.2 61 -0.4 36 107 42 107 45 235 56 . Reggie Evans, TOR 12.99 52 0.3 58 -4 55 106 43 105 29 237 58 . Nick Collison, OKC 10.77 67 -0.3 69 -0.6 38 118 11 109 56 241 59 . Brian Cardinal, DAL 10.1 69 -0.2 67 -8.7 72 120 10 105 29 247 60 . Larry Sanders, MIL 12.68 59 0.3 58 -4.6 58 94 72 98 4 251 61 . Jeff Green, OKC 12.8 56 1.5 38 -6.2 64 108 39 110 62 259 62 . Al Harrington, DEN 12.82 55 0.7 50 -3.3 53 103 53 109 56 267 63 . Shelden Williams, DEN 12.22 63 0.2 61 -6 62 104 51 106 35 272 64 . Jason Smith, NO 10.51 68 -0.4 70 -2.8 52 96 67 102 16 273 65 . Andres Nocioni, PHI 11.22 65 0.2 61 -6.8 66 102 59 106 35 286 66 . J.J. Hickson, CLE 12.73 57 0.7 50 -5.8 60 90 73 109 56 296 67 . Gary Forbes, DEN 12.73 57 0.5 55 -8.6 71 103 53 110 62 298 68 . Juwan Howard, MIA 7.48 73 -0.8 71 -9.3 74 98 65 104 24 307 69 . Dante Cunningham, POR 9.08 71 -0.8 71 -8.3 69 98 65 106 35 311 70 . Jordan Hill, HOU 11.49 64 0.3 58 -8.3 69 102 59 110 62 312 71 . Yi Jianlian, WSH 11.13 66 -0.1 66 -6.6 65 95 69 109 56 322 72 . Jason Maxiell, DET 8.24 72 -0.9 73 -9.2 73 96 67 111 69 354 73 . Jawad Williams, CLE 4.79 74 -1.2 74 -6.8 66 81 74 114 74 362 74

I'll be following up in the next couple of days with my observations on the rankings.  Feel free to post your thoughts below in the comments section.

Dallas Mavericks at the Quarter Pole

At 16-4 the Mavericks are second to only the division rival Spurs in the Western Conference and NBA standings.  They've been as impressive as anybody and have currently won nine in a row.  Interestingly, three of their four losses have been at home.  They are 8-1 on the road with the only loss coming in New Orleans.  They've won at Atlanta, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Utah.

Clearly Dallas has been one of the better teams in the NBA through the first quarter of the season.  Let's take a deeper look at the statistics and see what else we can learn about the Mavs.

But first, I predicted Dallas would finish the season at 53-29.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.2 (12th in the NBA) [109.2 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.8 (5th) [106.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 6.4 [2.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 98.0 (19th) [102.0 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.2 (3rd) [99.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.6 (25th) [92.5 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Dirk Nowitzki
Offensive Rating: 117 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 24.6 (22.9)

Jason Kidd
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 102 (105)
PER: 15.4 (17.2)

Jason Terry
Offensive Rating: 109 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (109)
PER: 18.0 (16.5)

Tyson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 138 (107)
Defensive Rating: 97 (102)
PER: 18.7 (12.5)

Shawn Marion
Offensive Rating: 104 (107)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 15.5 (14.7)

Caron Butler
Offensive Rating: 97 (101)
Defensive Rating: 102 (108)
PER: 13.0 (13.7)

Jose Barea
Offensive Rating: 96 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 11.2 (12.8)

Brendan Haywood
Offensive Rating: 102 (117)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 10.0 (16.1)

DeShawn Stevenson
Offensive Rating: 126 (83)
Defensive Rating: 105 (112)
PER: 14.2 (3.3)

Would you believe that the Mavericks are doing it with defense?  A team that has lived in the freewheeling, faster-paced "offense can always beat the defense" mindset has found a great deal of success in focusing on defense.  They've improved their Defensive Rating a tremendous 4.5 points and are now ranked fifth in the NBA.  They've slowed their pace by nearly two possessions per game but are still almost as efficient on offense as last season.  And they've improved their rating differential from 2.9 in 2009-10 to 6.4.

As they have been for quite some time now, the Mavs are led by Nowitzki.  His 24.6 PER ranks him eighth in the NBA.  He's shooting 55.3% overall, his best percentage by a wide margin, and continues to contribute in every area of the game.

Kidd currently has the lowest PER since his rookie season 16 years ago.  His field goal shooting is lower than it's ever been in his career but his 35.7% mark behind the arc is still above his career number.  Also on the positive side, he's averaging more assists per 36 minutes of play than he has in all but one of his 17 seasons.

The stronger focus on defense certainly shows in Terry's numbers.  He's putting up the best Defensive Rating of his career and is averaging more steals per 36 minutes than he ever has.  He's also providing the Mavericks a dependable spark off the bench.

Chandler has been a fantastic addition.  His 138 Offensive Rating is tops in the NBA and his 97 Defensive Rating is also excellent.  His PER is higher than it's ever been.  His shooting percentage from the field and the free throw line are at career highs.  Most importantly, he's been able to stay healthy, playing in all 20 games. 

Formerly known as the Matrix, Marion is not the player he used to be.  He's still serviceable though and has improved his PER slightly from a career low last season.  He's an awful three-point shooter but his overall field-goal percentage hovers around 50.  It is concerning that his turnover rate is at a career worst.

For the third year in a row Butler's production is dropping.  His PER is now at a dangerously low 13.0, well below the league average of 15.0.  He's still living off the reputation he earned three and four years ago in Washington but he is nowhere near as effective.

Barea gets too many minutes for a guy who's never had a positive differential and whose PER is a poor 11.2.  His three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this year and currently stands at 15.9%.

After a solidly productive 2009-10, Haywood is having the worst year of his career.  He's shooting very well from the field but everything else is way down.

Stevenson's shooting has kept him in the rotation, in fact he's started 15 of the 17 games he's played despite a PER that ranks him as below average.  Knocking down 51.1% of your three point shots will always keep you in the game.

Looking at the individual stats further makes the case that defense is the key to the Mavericks' hot start.  All nine players in the rotation have improved their Defensive Rating from last year.  Chandler has given Dallas a big boost on the defensive end and his excellent production levels are making up for Haywood's drop off. 

If the Mavericks can continue to excel on defense they will be tough to beat.  Their problem may be that when they get in a playoff series with a team with a lot of offensive weapons they may not have the firepower to keep up.

What are your thoughts on the Mavericks through the first 20 games of the year?  Post a comment below and let me know.

Dallas Mavericks - Better or Worse

With 10 50-win seasons in a row the Mavericks have one of the most impressive streaks in professional sports.  A large part of the credit for that belongs to their owner Mark Cuban who clearly is heavily invested in winning.  Another chunk should certainly go to Dirk Nowitzki.  He's been about as good as anybody over the last decade and has played in a minimum of 76 games in each of those 10 seasons.  Dallas was excellent again in 2009-10, piling up 55 wins, which was good enough for the two seed in the Western Conference.  Then they went down hard in the playoffs, losing to the Spurs in the first round.  The offseason did not bring much change so the Mavs will be putting most of the same pieces back out on the floor in 2010-11.  Will that be enough to continue their run of 50-win seasons?  Let's take a look at their lineup.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dherrera_96

Point Guard
2009 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)

At 37, Kidd is winning the fight over Father Time.  His performance last season was good enough to rank him in the very top level of NBA point guards and he has built himself into an excellent three-point shooter in his time in Dallas.  Barea is only okay as a backup.  I can't see Kidd keeping up with his pace from last season.  Net losses 1 1/2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)
2010 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)

Even though they really have four shooting guards on the roster, they start a true small forward, Butler, at the two.  Butler was good but not great after he joined the Mavericks last season.  Terry was again excellent off the bench while Beaubois was surprisingly productive in limited minutes his rookie season.  I like a little bump in production at this position as Butler gets more comfortable in Dallas.  Net wins - 1.

Small Forward
2009 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)
2010 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)

Marion is no longer the matrix of old but is still among the top half of small forwards in the NBA.  What's really concerning is that his scoring average and rebounding were the lowest they've been since his rookie season of 1999-2000.  Butler backs up Marion at the three.  I'm projecting more deterioration in Marion's game.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)

Nowitzki was stellar again in 2009-10.  I do think his 12 years in the NBA will start to wear on him this season, just slightly.  Net losses - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Erick Dampier (#18 C, Level 5), Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4)
2010 - Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4), Tyson Chandler (#34 C, Level 7)

While not a major stat producer, Dampier put in productive minutes by knowing his role and fulfilling it well.  Haywood was a solid pickup for the Mavericks who can contribute on both ends of the floor.  Chandler has been plagued by injuries over the last two years.  If he can stay healthy he should contribute good minutes as an athletic defensive stopper and alley-oop target for Kidd.  Technically the Mavericks should lose a game or two here based on the 2009-10 rankings, but I think they'll be a little better over the course of this season.  Net wins - 1/2.

Overall
One of the big concerns for the Mavericks is their depth.  They have a lot of shooting guards on the roster but could be considered thin at every other position when you factor in Chandler's recent injury history.  Age is another issue that could bring them down.  Ultimately I think they'll have one more year of strong success with the current group.  Of course, as one of the more active front offices in the league it is completely feasible that the roster they have at the end of the season will be quite different from the current one.

Last season the Mavericks had a 55-27 record.  As I documented above, I have them picking up one win at shooting guard and one half a win at center while losing one and a half at point guard and small forward and one half at power forward.

In the final verdict the Mavericks are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will be 53-29 in 2010-11.  So their worse is still pretty good.

How many games do you think the Mavericks will win this season?  Post a comment below and let me know how many and why.